PGA DFS Core Plays: 3M Open
Top-ranked grinder, Notorious, breaks down his favorite daily fantasy golf plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Even though I had a brutal week of DFS and betting, I always love the Open Championship. I wish we would have had Shot Tracker and I wish the weather would have played more of a factor, but the tournament produced a deserving winner in Collin Morikawa. We now turn our attention to the 3M Open in Minnesota. This was a new event on tour in 2019, so we only have two years of data to work with when it comes to TPC Twin Cities. The course itself is a Par 71 that measures over 7,400 yards. The three par fives are all easy and should provide plenty of eagle opportunities for the field. We should fully expect a birdie-fest, as the last two winners shot 21 and 19-under par.
In the limited sample we have to work with, strokes gained around the green has had next to no impact on a golfer’s ability to finish in the top 20 at this event. The stats are so glaring that I am completely taking strokes gained around the green out of my model for the week. Compared to tour average, the fairways and greens are both easy to hit. The fairways are also wide and this is certainly a longer course, so distance off the tee will be an advantage if golfers can keep it in the fairway. Driving accuracy has been important in the first two editions, likely because there are water hazards on 14 of the 18 holes. The water is really the course’s only defense.
As far as course fit, I don’t have a strong lean one way or another. We’ve seen ball strikers and good putters play well at this event in the past. Typically, when the winning score is around 20-under par, golfers need to gain strokes on the greens in order to contend. It’s hard to make that many birdies through ball striking alone. Ultimately, I’m looking at a combination of strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained putting (emphasis on bentgrass), birdie or better percentage, and proximity numbers from 175-200 and 200+ yards.