PGA DFS Core Plays: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Top-ranked grinder, Notorious, breaks down his favorite daily fantasy golf plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Before we get into this week’s event, I want to quickly recap the Farmers Insurance Open. I felt really good about the plays the model spit out and my conviction plays, but I ultimately ended up having a bad week. Tony Finau missing the cut was brutal and then I still had a chance to make a profit late Sunday before Justin Rose, Marc Leishman, and Ryan Palmer all splashed their approach shots on the 18th hole. DFS is full of good and bad breaks, but the bad ones are much more memorable. While I was rooting for Will Zalatoris to get his first win, I was super happy to see Luke List take down the event. We’ve been targeting him for years in DFS and he’s one of the first captains of team no-putt. I wish his win didn’t come on a week where he was 20% owned, but the field is sharp.
If you are a fan of the pro-am format and of the multi-course rotation, you are in luck. We have another one on tap this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This event is played on three courses, which means the cut won’t take place until after the third round. The cut rule is even tougher than usual, as only the top 60 and ties will move on to the final round. The good news is that all golfers are guaranteed to play three rounds. The bad news is that getting all of your golfers through the cut will be an extremely tough task with 156 golfers in the field this week. The expected odds of making the cut here is the lowest of any event on tour.
The three courses in play this week are Pebble Beach Golf Links (two rounds), Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula. Pebble Beach is the host course and the most exposed to wind since it is right on the water. In theory, you want to avoid golfers playing Pebble on the windiest day. However, wind appears to be a non-factor this week, as there isn’t a single day with double-digit wind in the forecast. Historically, Pebble and Spyglass have played pretty close in terms of difficulty. Monterey is by far the easiest of the three and should be a popular target for those playing showdown contests each of the first three days.
While these courses have significant differences, they all have four par fives, they all have poa annua greens, and they all measure less than 7,100 yards. Winners here over the years have an average driving distance of about 35th and many of the holes require less than driver off the tee. Distance is not a pre-requisite this week. With so many short holes on the scorecard, golfers will be hitting a ton of wedge shots. The greens at Pebble are the smallest on the PGA Tour and very difficult to hit, so around the green play will come in handy as well.
To sum up the attributes that I am looking for this week — good iron play, good around the green play, good putting on poa annua greens, and a good track record in California. I will also note that course history is very stick at this event. The same golfers tend to play well here each and every year.
As part of your premium subscription to RotoGrinders, you get access to my model each week. Not only that, you can download it and adjust the weights to create your own player ratings that can be used to build lineups in LineupHQ.
Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown Video and Download Link
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 60 and ties
Key Statistics for the Week
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Bogey Avoidance
- Birdie or Better %
- Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Poa)
Weather Forecasts
Hole Yardage Specialists (based on holes at the Pebble Beach Golf Links)
- Daniel Berger
- Patrick Cantlay
- Seamus Power
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Jordan Spieth