PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings & FanDuel: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
We had Chris Kirk as a core play and as an outright last week, so it was an awfully sweaty Sunday afternoon for yours truly. The back nine provided many twists and turns and despite bogeying the 18th hole, Kirk was able to outlast Eric Cole in the playoff. I’ve always been a big fan of the Honda Classic and while it doesn’t draw the best field, it’s a tough test of golf with a great stretch of finishing holes. Honda will not be the primary sponsor next year, but it sounds like the event has another sponsor lined up, so it’s good to hear that the event will continue moving forward (I’ve heard rumors of the match play potentially moving here).
We now turn our attention to the third designated event of the season. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has an extremely stacked field and only 120 golfers will tee it up this week, so in theory, that boosts our chances of getting 6-of-6 golfers through the cut. Bay Hill is a Par 72 that measures 7,466 yards and is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. It has been in the top nine in difficulty each of the last four years and the winning score here is often in the single digits under par. With 20+ MPH winds in the forecast for most of the week, we should expect another tough test of golf.
The fairways at Bay Hill are fairly generous, but there are hazards lurking if you spray the ball off the tee. In recent years, they have cut down the rough in front of the water hazards and the bunkers, so the thick grass no longer serves as a back-stop. The course often plays very firm and fast, which does negate the need for distance. Ultimately, this is another week where strokes gained off the tee or total driving is your best bet when it comes to off the tee metrics. We’ve seen a nice mix of shorter and longer hitters contend at this venue over the years.
The whole course features bermudagrass and even though the greens are quite large (7,500 square feet), they are tough to hit on average. Golfers will have to take advantage of the par fives because the par fours around here are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour. Given the difficulty of the course as a whole, targeting golfers that are solid all-around is likely the best bet. If you have a weakness, it will likely get exposed this week. Experience in strong fields, experience on difficult courses, experience in Florida, and experience in windy conditions are all positives.
I have two final notes before we get into the picks. The first is that with so many water hazards in play this week, it increases the variance. You shouldn’t be afraid to take stands against chalk golfers that you aren’t particularly high on. The second is that the weather is going to play a big factor this week. We need to constantly check the forecast and potentially build tee time stacks if there appears to be an edge for one wave the closer we get to lineup lock.
Model Video & Download Link for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Tournament Info
Field Size:
- 120 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
Golf Course
- Bay Hill Club & Lodge
- Orlando, Florida
- Par 72 — 7,466 yards
Course Notes
- One of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour
- Top nine in difficulty each of the last four years
- Fairways here are wide, but plenty of danger lurks if you are offline
- Distance isn’t a prerequisite, especially when the course is firm and fast
- Greens here are quite large, but still difficult to hit on average
- Third designated event of the year and a limited field (120 golfers)
- Water is in play on half the holes, which increases variance
- Early forecast calls for 20+ MPH gusts on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
What I’m Looking For
- Solid all-around
- Experience in Florida
- Good track record on difficult courses
- Decent results in windy conditions
- Ability to play well in strong fields