PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings & FanDuel: BMW Championship

Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.

BMW Championship

While it wasn’t my best week of DFS, it sure felt nice to be sitting on a Will Zalatoris outright ticket. This was a bet that the whole community seemed to be on, so it was even better when he finally picked up the win after three playoff holes. Speaking of, that was one of the craziest playoffs I have ever seen. The second playoff hole featured a drive that nearly went out of bound, the removal of shoes to potentially stand in the water, great recovery shots, and clutch putts. On the third playoff hole, both golfers pushed their approach shots far too right on the island green. Zalatoris had his ball stay up (but was essentially dead), while Sepp Straka’s took a similar bounce but found the water. Ultimately, Zalatoris hit the better shot from the drop zone and sank the putt to pick up his first win. It was a wild ride and a day that I won’t forget for a very long time.

We now turn our attention to the second leg of the FedExCup playoffs. There are only 70 golfers eligible to tee it up this week and two of them have withdrawn from the event (Cam Smith and Tommy Fleetwood). This leaves 68 golfers in the field trying to punch their ticket to East Lake. There will not be a cut this week, which brings a different strategy into play when it comes to DFS. Most tend to get more aggressive with their lineup builds because all golfers are guaranteed to play four rounds, but that strategy can certainly backfire. Four rounds of bad golf from your punts might be more painful than two, especially if the rest of your lineup is solid. If the winner doesn’t come from one of the favorites up top, there is an easy path for the balanced build to rule the week.

This event rotates venues each year and will stop at Wilmington Country Club in Delaware for this year’s renewal. We have never seen this course on the PGA Tour, which means we have no course history and no course data to rely on when it comes to player selection. The course is a Par 71 that measures over 7,500 yards. I expect most to see the length of the course and immediately think to target the bombers. While this certainly could be a bomber’s track, the length could be a tad misleading. Two of the par fives measure 634 and 649 yards. For most golfers in the field, these will play as three-shot holes. There are three long par fours on the scorecard, but eight par fours that measure less than 450 yards.

Off the tee, golfers will face tree-lined fairways that are surrounded by bunkers and thick four-inch rough. Again, we don’t know how the course is going to play, but there certainly seems to be an advantage for those playing from the fairway. Rather than looking at pure distance, I much prefer to use strokes gained off the tee or total driving this week. Despite the thick rough, we could see an unusually high greens in regulation rate this week. The greens are 8,100 square feet on average, which are nearly twice the size of the ones we saw at TPC Southwind last week. With the greens being so big, looking at three-putt avoidance or lag putting could be a profitable angle that flies under the radar.

I’m using quite a few comps this week that can all be found in my model. I’m looking at golfers that perform well on bentgrass courses, golfers that perform well on long courses, and golfers that play well in no-cut events. It’s one of those weeks with so many unknowns that I don’t mind building stacks based on different skillsets — bombers, ball strikers, good bentgrass putters, etc. More often than not, when I have doubts, I like to lean on golfers that don’t have any major weakness in their game. I plan to read as many player quotes about the course as possible and will give an update here if my thought process changes.

Downloadable and Customizable Model for the BMW Championship

Tournament Info

Field Size:

  • 68 golfers

Cut Rule:

  • No Cut

Weather Forecasts

Key Statistics

  • Strokes Gained Approach
  • Total Driving (or Strokes Gained Off the Tee)
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Strokes Gained Putting (Bentgrass)

Core Plays

Rory McIlroy

DK: $10,500 — FD: $11,800 — YH: $45

SG: OTT — 5
SG: APP — 13
SG: ATG — 21
GIR — 15
SG: Putting (Bentgrass) — 3
Noto’s Rating — 96.6

This is probably an overreaction on my point, but I am taking Xander Schauffele out of the core plays. In his presser, he mentioned that he hit horrendously last week and that he’s “not hitting it great right now.” He also added that he’s struggling with ball flight after playing two events overseas. This could backfire on me, but I’m swapping him out for McIlroy. In Rory’s presser, he admitted that he wasn’t too sharp last week, but he missed the cut by one stroke due to a bogey on his last hole. He immediately flew to Delaware and has been playing Wilmington Country Club every day since. I view him as the best golfer in the world and he’s had more practice on this course than almost anyone in the field. He also added that he can hit a ton of drivers here, which gives him a much bigger edge than at TPC Southwind.

Jon Rahm

DK: $10,300 — FD: $11,400 — YH: $48

SG: OTT — 1
SG: APP — 16
SG: ATG — 57
GIR — 1
SG: Putting (Bentgrass) — 15
Noto’s Rating — 89.8

It’s hard to go wrong with any of the plays above $10,000 this week, but my favorite is Rahm. He hasn’t had the best season (at least compared to expectations), but could fix all that by winning the FedExCup. We know he loves East Lake and he plays great on long courses. We don’t know how difficult Wilmington Country Club is going to play, but Rahm’s game fits all types of courses. He’s first in the field in strokes gained off the tee and in greens in regulation. Last week was certainly encouraging, as he gained eight strokes tee to green, which was his best outing since his win in Mexico.

Conviction Plays

Mito Pereira

DK: $7,100 — FD: $8,200 — YH: $22

SG: OTT — 19
SG: APP — 10
SG: ATG — 45
GIR — 11
SG: Putting (Bentgrass) — 55
Noto’s Rating — 68.3

Even though he hasn’t been in the best of form over the last couple of months, I’m willing to bet on talent at this price point. Over the last six months, Mito is top 20 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, and greens in regulation. If you take out a couple of recent events, those numbers get even better. I was encouraged by what I saw last week, as he gained 3.5 strokes with his irons. If he can find a few more fairways this week, I like his chances to finish inside the top 10. When in doubt about the course, lean on ball strikers.

Keegan Bradley

DK: $7,200 — FD: $8,700 — YH: $23

SG: OTT — 20
SG: APP — 19
SG: ATG — 27
GIR — 49
SG: Putting (Bentgrass) — 53
Noto’s Rating — 58.5

Bradley hasn’t been in the best of form recently — he’s missed three of his last four cuts and he’s lost strokes on approach in each of his last two starts. However, he is from the Northeast and has been dominant in this area of the country throughout his career. More importantly, he should be a great fit for the course if we zoom out and look at his skillset. He’s one of the best total drivers of the ball on tour, he’s top 20 in this field on approach, and he’s very underrated around the greens. The putter is always a wildcard, but he has gained strokes putting in six of his last 10 events.

Chris Kirk

DK: $6,700 — FD: $7,700 — YH: $21

SG: OTT — 17
SG: APP — 34
SG: ATG — 4
GIR — 45
SG: Putting (Bentgrass) — 30
Noto’s Rating — 57.8

I’ve made a bad habit of fading golfers that let me down the week before, only to watch them bounce back in grand fashion (Denny McCarthy and Kevin Kisner last week, Davis Riley a few times, etc.). Kirk couldn’t get anything going at TPC Southwind, but has now gained strokes off the tee in 17 straight events. His irons are around field average and he’s one of the best scramblers left in the playoffs. We don’t know how Wilmington Country Club is going to play, so leaning on golfers that hit fairways and avoid bogeys makes a lot of sense.

PGA Betting Card

It’s always great when a plan comes together. As noted last week, I had the FedEx St. Jude Championship circled for Will Zalatoris after he took second at the U.S. Open. It’s a course that rewards good driving, elite iron play, and good scrambling. He checked every box and won in spectacular fashion. We now have four outright winners since the U.S. Open. While that’s great, we are still in the negative for the season. Let’s hope the heater continues over the final two events.

Season total: -35 units

This week: 11 units in play

To compare odds across all of the major sportsbooks, check out the Scores and Odds golf page.

Winner

  • Jon Rahm +1400 (DraftKings)
  • Xander Schauffele +2000 (FanDuel)
  • Collin Morikawa +2200 (Caesars)
  • Cameron Young +2800 (BetMGM)

Top 5 Bets

  • Jon Rahm +300 (DraftKings)
  • Xander Schauffele +410 (FanDuel)
  • Collin Morikawa +450 (FanDuel)
  • Cameron Young +500 (Caesars)

Top 10 Bets

  • Keegan Bradley +600 (DraftKings)
  • Mito Pereira +625 (PointsBet)
  • Chris Kirk +850 (FanDuel)

These odds were found at Scores and Odds and were available as of Tuesday afternoon.

Image Credit: Imagn

Meet the Experts Content Posting Times

Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.

BMW Championship

While it wasn’t my best week of DFS, it sure felt nice to be sitting on a Will Zalatoris outright ticket. This was a bet that the whole community seemed to be on, so it was even better when he finally picked up the win after three playoff holes. Speaking of, that was one of the craziest playoffs I have ever seen. The second playoff hole featured a drive that nearly went out of bound, the removal of shoes to potentially stand in the water, great recovery shots, and clutch putts. On the third playoff hole, both golfers pushed their approach shots far too right on the island green. Zalatoris had his ball stay up (but was essentially dead), while Sepp Straka’s took a similar bounce but found the water. Ultimately, Zalatoris hit the better shot from the drop zone and sank the putt to pick up his first win. It was a wild ride and a day that I won’t forget for a very long time.

We now turn our attention to the second leg of the FedExCup playoffs. There are only 70 golfers eligible to tee it up this week and two of them have withdrawn from the event (Cam Smith and Tommy Fleetwood). This leaves 68 golfers in the field trying to punch their ticket to East Lake. There will not be a cut this week, which brings a different strategy into play when it comes to DFS.

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About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

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