PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings & FanDuel: Hero World Challenge

Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.

Hero World Challenge

While this will be an abbreviated version of the core plays article, we didn’t want to leave our great premium members hanging without any content for this week’s exhibition in the Bahamas. There are only 20 golfers set to tee it up at the Hero World Challenge, but they are some of the best in the world. The fact that Tiger Woods can get this many elite players to show up for his event during the offseason shows how much respect he commands in the golf world. Unfortunately, Tiger has withdrawn from this event. Hopefully, he will still be able to play in The Match and the father/son tournament in the coming weeks.

With such a limited field, we will not see a cut this week. We also have unique pricing on our hands, which brings different roster construction strategies into play. While it doesn’t hurt to have seen the course before, it’s certainly not a prerequisite to contending. Jon Rahm won here in his debut, Viktor Hovland won here in his debut, and Tony Finau finished second in his debut. The course is a beautiful Par 72 that measures 7,414 yards. I would give a small edge to accuracy over distance off the tee, but total driving or pure strokes gained off the tee are the best metrics to use this week.

The average greens in regulation rate here over the years is on par with PGA Tour standards. Golfers will have to scramble well to contend, but it won’t be from the rough very often. There are run-off on these greens, which create a lot of tight-lie chip shots off the sticky bermudagrass. There are also a lot of waste bunkers and greenside bunkers on the course. The last four winners here have been -18, -18, -20, and -18, so golfers will have to make a lot of birdies to find themselves in contention on Sunday. We’ve seen quite the mix of winners here, so it’s really about playing good golf than it is about targeting one specific skillset.

Note: The model and video will be back for the Tournament of Champions.

Model Ratings

Tournament Info

Field Size:

• 20 golfers

Cut Rule:

• No cut

Weather Forecasts

• Windfinder

Core Plays

Jon Rahm

DK: $10,700

SG: OTT — 1
SG: APP — 14
BOB% — 4
SG: ATG — 19
SG: Putting — 9
Noto’s Rating — 90.0

There aren’t many weeks where you can target the two most expensive golfers in the field and still like the look of your rosters, but that’s what the soft pricing has allowed us to do this week. You can realistically pair Rahm with Scheffler and fill out the rest of your lineups with golfers that are all in the top 10 of this week’s model. Rahm has finished first, fourth, first, and second in his last four starts worldwide and has finished first and second in his two starts at this event. When he’s rolling, you do not want to fade him. His game is clearly in top shape and he has as good of course history as anyone in the field.

Justin Thomas

DK: $10,200 — FD: $10,700

SG: OTT — 6
SG: APP — 9
BOB% — 3
SG: ATG — 1
SG: Putting — 15
Noto’s Rating — 68.7

I started the week with a fade of JT in mind because the model didn’t like him at the price point, but I have done a complete 180 on him. He has played here each of the last four years and has finished T5 here in back-to-back years. This course requires a creative short game and there isn’t a golfer in the field that is better around the greens. He makes a ton of birdies and has really improved off the tee. In fact, he has gained off the tee in 13 straight events and has gained at least 2.5 strokes off the tee in many of those outings. I expect him to be very low-owned (comparatively) in single-entry contests.

Max Homa

DK: $6,600

SG: OTT — 9
SG: APP — 11
BOB% — 8
SG: ATG — 13
SG: Putting — 4
Noto’s Rating — 72.5

With the pricing this week, DraftKings has assured us that we are going to like the way our lineups look. Homa is far too cheap for a player that has been in good form and that has won three times in the last 14 months. He’s good off the tee, he’s good on approach, and he’s one of the best putters in the field. He’s never played this event, but that hasn’t stopped the likes of Finau, Rahm, and Hovland from playing well here in their debuts. This is a bet on talent at a cheap price point.

Tom Kim

DK: $6,500

SG: OTT — 16
SG: APP — 2
BOB% — 10
SG: ATG — 11
SG: Putting — 15
Noto’s Rating — 73.7

Kim rates out as the fifth best play in my model this week, yet he’s the 16th most expensive on DraftKings. This is a course that favors accuracy over distance and there are few that are more accurate than Kim off the tee. He’s quickly turned into one of the best iron players in the world and he’s shown an ability to contend in events that are full of big names. He has won two times in the last four months and hasn’t slowed down one bit in-between victories.

PGA Betting Card

To compare odds across sportsbooks, check out the Scores and Odds golf page.

Last week: -11 units

Season total: +18 units

This week: 3 units in play

Hero World Challenge

• Sam Burns +1800 (Caesars)
• Tom Kim +1800 (FanDuel)
• Max Homa +2800 (PointsBet)

Image Credit: Imagn

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