PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings & FanDuel: The Memorial Tournament
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
The Memorial Tournament
If you would have told me before last week’s event started that Harold Varner would be tied for the lead and in the middle of the fairway on the 12th hole on Sunday, I would have really liked my chances. He was one of my highest owned golfers in DFS and I bet him outright and to finish in the top 10. He proceeded to four-putt on that hole for a triple, hit it in the water on the next hole for a double, and then hit it out of bounds for a triple on the next hole. In a span of less than two hours, he went from being tied for the lead to shooting a 45 on the back nine and falling all the way down to a tie for 27th. I’m also still licking my wounds from Brian Harman, who uncharacteristically shot himself out of the tournament on Thursday. There was still more good than bad at Colonial (Jordan Spieth, Kevin Na, Chris Kirk, and Tony Finau), but I was hoping for a better week overall.
We now turn our attention to one of my favorite tournaments of the year — The Memorial in Dublin, Ohio. Believe it or not, we only have two more events before the U.S. Open. This week is all about Jack Nicklaus. This is his event and it is played at his course. This is still an invitational, which means there will only be 120 golfers teeing it up this week. With the top 65 and ties playing the weekend, at least 54% of the field will make the cut. However, that may not directly translate into a high 6-of-6 percentage when it comes to DFS. Water is in play on 13 of the 18 holes and this course provides many risk/reward shots that bring a wide range of scores into play. Each and every year, we see some of the best golfers in the world miss the cut at this event.
Muirfield Village Golf Club is a Par 72 that measures 7,533 yards. The course had a renovation prior to the event last season and many of the golfers weren’t a big fan of the changes. The course was lengthened and essentially made more difficult (which is notable since it was routinely in the top 15 in difficulty on tour). This is a classical design that is known as a second shot course, but don’t let that description fool you — if there is a weakness in your golf game, Muirfield Village will find a way to highlight it. The fairways here are tree-lined, but they are generous (34 yards wide on average). There is a significant penalty if you miss the fairways (water and thick rough), but the course is one of the longest on tour. A combination of distance and accuracy is preferred this week.
Golfers will be hitting their approach shots into small bentgrass greens. They are only 5,000 square feet on average, so hitting them in regulation is a tough test each year. With length added to the course and with thick rough, you will see a lot of missed greens this week. To make matters worse, the scrambling success rate is low here each and every year. We can decipher this information in two ways — we can focus on those that routinely hit a lot of greens in hopes they won’t have to scramble as often as others or we can target the short game specialists if we think everyone is going to miss greens.
The goal for Nicklaus is to crown the best golfer the week of the event. He wants his course to challenge every aspect of the game and that’s exactly what I expect to happen this week. The last four winners here have been Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, and Collin Morikawa (Workday). That’s an extremely impressive list of winners. Ideally, we want golfers that gain strokes off the tee (not necessarily with distance), golfers that are precise with their irons, golfers that are good around the greens, golfers that have a sizable track record here, and golfers that like to putt on bentgrass greens.
Sounds simple enough. Let’s get into the picks for the week.
Noto’s Downloadable and Customizable Model for the PGA Championship
Tournament Info
Field Size:
- 120 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Key Statistics for the Week
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bent)
- Bogey Avoidance
Weather Forecasts
Hole Yardage Specialists (based on holes at Muirfield Village)
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jon Rahm
- Rory McIlroy
- Cameron Smith
- Shane Lowry
My Comp Courses (ratings can be seen in the model)
- Riviera Country Club
- PGA National
- Bay Hill
- Quail Hollow
- Torrey Pines (South)