PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings & FanDuel: THE PLAYERS Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
THE PLAYERS Championship
The players on tour may not love it, but there are few events that provide a better finish than Bay Hill. There were legitimately eight different golfers that could have ran away with the tournament on the back nine on Sunday. Ultimately, Kurt Kitayama outlasted some absolute superstars to walk away with his first win on the PGA Tour. If you are going to pick an event as your first, the Arnold Palmer Invitational has to be up there with all of the non-majors. Kitayama added a cool $3.6 million to his bank account with that win.
We now turn our attention to the “fifth major” or at the very least, the PGA Tour’s version of a major. Perhaps I am alone in this thought, but the designated events seem to have taken some of the buzz away from this week. Don’t get me wrong, I love the new elevated schedule where we get to see the very best compete against each other all year, but there wasn’t a major lead-in of anticipation to this week like there has been in the past. It feels like a lot like last week and a lot like the WM Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational. It’s not a bad feeling, but different from past PLAYERS Championships.
TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 that was designed by Pete Dye. It measures 7,275 yards, which isn’t overly long for a Par 72 on the PGA Tour. Like most Dye designs, you can’t overpower this golf course off the tee. The rough is thick, there aren’t great angles from the rough, and there is trouble lurking all over the course. In fact, there are water hazards on 17 of the 18 holes. Accuracy is certainly a premium over distance this week, but a combination of both is always preferred. This is one of the few golf courses on the PGA Tour where any type of golfer can contend. The increased variance with the water hazards and the lack of a strong course fit leads to some extreme volatility, which is why so many elite golfers have mixed course history.
The average driving accuracy is fairly high here, but that’s not because the course features extremely wide fairways. Many golfers will opt to club down on a number of holes. The bermudagrass greens are small (5,500 square feet), they are tough to hit, and they are lightning fast. This places an emphasis on iron play and on around the green play. If you look at recent winners (Cam Smith, Webb Simpson, Justin Thomas), they are all very good with their irons and have a tidy short game when they do miss greens. Total driving and bermuda putting are also important, but I put them slightly behind approach and around the green in terms of importance.
In terms of difficulty, it all hinges on the weather. TPC Sawgrass typically plays easier than PGA National (Honda Classic) and Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), but birdies are tough to come by if you aren’t striking the ball well. We saw some serious wind/rain at this event last year, but the current forecast looks fairly calm. If it holds, we should see some low scores. Experience in Florida and experience on Dye designs should certainly come in handy this week.
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Model Video & Download Link for the THE PLAYERS Championship
Tournament Info
Field Size:
- 144 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
Golf Course
- TPC Sawgrass
- Pete Dye design
- Par 72, 7,275 yards
Course Notes
- Like most Dye designs, TPC Sawgrass can’t be overpowered off the tee
- Difficulty all depends on the conditions; forecast looks fairly calm this week
- Can make a lot of birdies here, will play easier than Honda and API
- Accuracy is more important than distance, but combination is preferred
- All types of golfers can play well here, no specific course fit
- Water is in play on 17 of the 18 holes; famous island green on the 17th
- Fairways are easy to hit, but largely because many less than driver holes
- Bermuda greens are small (5,500 square feet) and lightning fast
- Course history matters — sixth most predictive over the years
What I’m Looking For
- Solid all-around
- Good total drivers
- Good iron players
- Good bermuda putters
- Experience in Florida
- Ability to play well in strong fields
Core Plays
Will Zalatoris
DK: $8,800 — FD: $10,700
SG: OTT — 4
SG: APP — 32
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 51
Bogey Avoidance — 27
SG: In Florida — 21
Noto’s Rating — 89.7
This reminds me a lot of earlier this year when Zalatoris was very popular at the Farmers and he missed the cut. The very next event he played, people were hesitant to go back to him and he finished T4 at the Genesis. Zalatoris was one of the highest-owned golfers last week at API, but he was somewhat of a let-down with a T53 finish. He’s not going to be nearly as popular this week, even though he is 2-for-2 at this event with both finishes in the top 30. We know Zalatoris thrives in tough conditions and we know he likes to play in Florida. The putter is always a wildcard, but he’s better from a strokes gained perspective than most realize.
Jason Day
DK: $8,000 — FD: $9,600
SG: OTT — 14
SG: APP — 56
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 61
Bogey Avoidance — 15
SG: In Florida — 25
Noto’s Rating — 82.7
It feels like Day has been a feature of my core plays for months now and he has yet to disappoint. He’s coming off of four straight top 10 finishes and he’s posted top 25 finishes in 10 of his last 11 starts. There are very few players on tour with as good of incoming form as Day. The driver is working, the irons have flashed upside, the around the green game is always solid, and he’s finally starting to roll the rock like he used to when he was the best player in the world. Day has won THE PLAYERS in the past (2016) and has three other top 10s at this event in his career. He’s gearing up for a win and I’m going to be there when it happens.
Corey Conners
DK: $7,400 — FD: $9,700
SG: OTT — 12
SG: APP — 14
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 114
Bogey Avoidance — 17
SG: In Florida — 14
Noto’s Rating — 75.9
The old saying of “always fade cheap chalk in PGA DFS” doesn’t usually apply to these strong-field events where the pricing was released well before the tournament. More often than not, there are a couple of players that get mis-priced and rather than fight it, I like to be over-weight on those good plays and look to differentiate elsewhere. To me, Conners is the most underpriced golfer on the board. He’s top 15 in this field in strokes gained off the tee and on approach, he’s one of the best in Florida, he’s made 13 of his last 14 cuts on tour, he’s a perfect 3-for-3 at this event, and he’s coming off of a week where he gained 6.9 strokes ball striking.
Conviction Plays
Rory McIlroy
DK: $11,000 — FD: $11,900
SG: OTT — 8
SG: APP — 4
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 112
Bogey Avoidance — 4
SG: In Florida — 3
Noto’s Rating — 94.3
McIlroy nearly completed the comeback win on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but ultimately fell one shot shy of getting into a playoff with Kitayama. It was another great week for McIlroy in Florida, which is something that we have been able to bank on from him throughout his career. Even though there’s going to be a bigger gap in ownership this week, I still prefer Rory over Rahm given their individual track records at this event and at other Florida courses. Rory won THE PLAYERS in 2019 and has three more top 10s on his resume here, while Rahm only has two top 50 finishes in five appearances at TPC Sawgrass.
Max Homa
DK: $9,900 — FD: $10,600
SG: OTT — 30
SG: APP — 2
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 44
Bogey Avoidance — 8
SG: In Florida — 9
Noto’s Rating — 89.1
Homa might be my favorite bet of the week, as he’s sitting at +2100 after gaining over 11 strokes ball striking at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. If his short game was a little better, he could have easily won at Bay Hill. He seems to thrive under pressure, he doesn’t have a weakness in his game, and he’s won four times on the PGA Tour in the last 18 months. He’s won some big events, but would love to add THE PLAYERS to his resume. I like the way his game sets up for the course and like that he finished T13 here last year.
Tom Kim
DK: $8,100 — FD: $10,100
SG: OTT — 71
SG: APP — 9
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 76
Bogey Avoidance — 13
SG: In Florida — 64
Noto’s Rating — 76.1
It’s funny how quickly thoughts change on a golfer. In the fall, everyone had THE PLAYERS circled as the next win for Kim. On paper, this is an absolute perfect course for him — he’s incredibly accurate off the tee, he’s one of the best iron players in the world, and he has an underrated short game. However, due to finishing outside of the top 30 three straight events, nobody seems to want to play him. I’m trusting the process with this one. I know course history is important here and I know he’s a first-timer, but he has Joe Skovron on the bag, who caddied for Rickie Fowler the year he won this event.
Tommy Fleetwood
DK: $7,900 — FD: $9,500
SG: OTT — 80
SG: APP — 46
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 40
Bogey Avoidance — 30
SG: In Florida — 7
Noto’s Rating — 71.3
Fleetwood finished with a disappointing T61 last week, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. He actually gained 4.4 strokes tee to green, but lost 5.0 strokes putting. It was very uncharacteristic of Fleetwood, who is 40th in strokes gained putting on bermuda greens over the last three years. The mediocre result should help keep ownership at a reasonable level for this week’s event. We know Tommy loves Florida and TPC Sawgrass is no exception — he’s 4-for-5 in his career here with two top 10 finishes.
Adam Hadwin
DK: $7,100 — FD: $8,400
SG: OTT — 69
SG: APP — 65
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 13
Bogey Avoidance — 29
SG: In Florida — 38
Noto’s Rating — 71.8
The model really loves Hadwin this week and my season would be going a lot better if I had trusted the model a bit more with these value plays. I’m not going to over-think this one and will put my faith in the model this week. Hadwin is accurate off the tee, he’s a very good putter, he likes playing in Florida, and he doesn’t make very many bogeys. Prior to last week, he had made 13 straight cuts on tour, so consistency is clearly one of his strengths. He’s made five of his last six cuts at THE PLAYERS with a T9 finish last year.
Jhonattan Vegas
DK: $6,800 — FD: $8,900
SG: OTT — 11
SG: APP — 20
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 77
Bogey Avoidance — 117
SG: In Florida — 15
Noto’s Rating — 64.8
I should probably go back to Riley after he’s treated me so well the last two weeks, but there’s a chance he reaches double-digit ownership. I’m fine fading that chalk given his volatility. Instead, I’ll pay a little more for Vegas, who is the much better ball striker of the two. Even though this field is stacked, he ranks in the top 20 in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained on approach, and strokes gained per round in Florida. The short game is a bit spotty, but he likes Pete Dye courses and he has two top 10s at TPC Sawgrass in his career.
PGA Betting Card
To compare odds across sportsbooks, check out the Scores and Odds golf page.
Last week: +3.6 units
Season total: +8.0 units
This week: 10 units in play
THE PLAYERS Championship
Outright
- Rory McIlroy (+900 FanDuel)
- Max Homa (+2200 DraftKings)
- Jason Day (+3000 PointsBet)
- Will Zalatoris (+3500 DraftKings)
Top 20 Parlay
- Max Homa + Jason Day (+417 FanDuel)
- Will Zalatoris + Sungjae Im (+536 FanDuel)
Top 40 Parlay
- Tommy Fleetwood + Corey Conners + Will Zalatoris (+629 FanDuel)
- Sungjae Im + Jhonattan Vegas + Jason Day (+610 FanDuel)
- Keegan Bradley + Chris Kirk + Tom Kim (+651 FanDuel)
Make the Cut Parlay
- Sungjae Im + Tom Kim + Corey Conners + Tom Hoge + Adam Hadwin + Tommy Fleetwood (+1056 FanDuel)
Note: All bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise.
Image Credit: Getty Images
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