PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings & FanDuel: Valspar Championship

Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.

Valspar Championship

There’s no way around it — it was a rough week for the core plays at THE PLAYERS Championship. The conviction plays were much better, but it was ultimately a losing week for yours truly because I played Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler. The show that Scheffler put on was nothing short of spectacular. He ran away with the event and won by five strokes despite gaining 0.1 strokes putting. We typically see winners gain a lot of strokes on the greens, especially in run away events like last week. Min Woo Lee stole my heart (in a good way), Tom Hoge continues to be one of the best stories (made $1.4 million and still flew home on coach), Max Homa continues to trend toward a major win, and Tyrrell Hatton remains one of the more polarizing players on tour.

With this being the first non-designated event in the last three weeks and with it being sandwiched between THE PLAYERS and the WGC Match Play, it didn’t draw the strongest field. We have a few big names in the field, but most opted for a week off. With March Madness starting on Thursday, this event isn’t going to get as much attention as most on the PGA Tour. From a DFS perspective, this could provide us with a big edge over the field if we put in the extra time for research and roster construction. I will certainly be filling out my fair share of NCAA brackets, but I will also keep my foot on the pedal when it comes to my golf research.

Is it too much to ask for all six golfers in my main lineup to make the cut this week? Asking for a friend.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a Par 71 that features four par fives and five par threes. It measures 7,340 yards and has been one of the toughest non-major venues on the PGA Tour. The course has played a little easier the last two times around, which has resulted in the course growing up the rough (from 3 inches to 3.75 inches) and cutting down the intermediate rough (from 72 inches wide to 21 inches wide). The fairways were pinched as well, as golfers will have an average of 22 yards of fairway to work with in landing areas. Those changes alone will lead to tougher scoring and then we throw in the fact that we are expecting 25+ MPH gusts Friday through Sunday.

This is much different than most Florida courses, as the fairways are tree-lined and the course features elevation changes. With thick rough and narrow fairways, many will opt to hit less than driver on a number of holes and we’ve seen that backed up in the data (averaging driving distance here is well below tour average). The greens are small (5,800 square feet on average) and tough to hit, which places an emphasis on both approach play and around the green play. We’ve seen a number of bad putters perform well here (Paul Casey, I’m looking at you) in the past, so I’m focusing more on tee to green than actual putting this week, although I will still look at putting splits on bermuda greens.

Model Video & Download Link for the Valspar Championship

Tournament Info

Field Size:

• 144 golfers

Cut Rule:

• Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds

Weather Forecasts

• Windfinder

Golf Course

• Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
• Palm Harbor, Florida
• Par 71 (four par fives), 7,340 yards

Course Notes

• Unlike most Florida courses, this is tree-lined and has elevation changes
• Difficulty the last five years: 29th, 20th, 6th, 6th, 17th
• Thick rough this week and 25+ MPH gusts expected Friday through Sunday
• Very narrow off the tee (fairways are 24 yards wide on average)
• Very few drivers need to be hit on this course outside of the par fives
• Water is in play on nine of the 18 holes
• Small (5,800 square feet) bermudagrass greens
• The ‘Snake Pit’ (holes 16 through 18) provides an exciting finish

What I’m Looking For

• Solid all-around
• Good long iron players
• Good scramblers
• Bermuda putters
• Bogey avoidance

Core Plays

Justin Thomas

DK: $10,900 — FD: $12,000

SG: OTT — 9
SG: APP — 5
SG: ATG — 2
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 115
Bogey Avoidance — 20
Noto’s Rating — 96.3

JT hasn’t played his best the last two weeks, but finishes of T21 and T60 hide the fact that he gained 5.9 and 5.2 strokes tee to green in those outings. The putter has really held him back recently, but that’s always been the case for JT. If he can find something with the flatstick this week, he could easily pick up his third career win in Florida. In this field, he’s top 10 in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, and strokes gained around the green. We know he loves to shape the ball, which is why he’s been so good in windy conditions over the years. In his last two appearances here, he’s finished T3 and T13, so he clearly has a liking for the Copperhead Course.

Tommy Fleetwood

DK: $9,800 — FD: $11,000

SG: OTT — 70
SG: APP — 9
SG: ATG — 14
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 28
Bogey Avoidance — 10
Noto’s Rating — 87.9

Keegan withdrew on Wednesday morning, so I am pivoting to Fleetwood. To be honest, I feel just as good about Fleetwood. He’s been playing well recently and the last two weeks could have been a lot better if the putter didn’t abandon him. He’s top 10 in this field in strokes gained on approach and in bogey avoidance. He’s usually a good bermuda putter and he’s the best in the field on a strokes gained per round basis in Florida. In his debut here last year, he finished T16.

Conviction Plays

Matt Fitzpatrick

DK: $10,000 — FD: $11,500

SG: OTT — 4
SG: APP — 94
SG: ATG — 11
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 11
Bogey Avoidance — 1
Noto’s Rating — 91.9

If you love to look through stats like myself, you can’t feel great about the fact that Fitzpatrick has lost strokes on approach in eight of his last nine starts. However, if you look through his proximity numbers, he’s much better (relatively) with his long irons than he is with his wedges. We saw him gain strokes on approach at Bay Hill, which is another course that requires a lot of long iron shots. He’s a magician around the greens, he’s first in the field in bogey avoidance, and we know he likes tough scoring conditions. I prefer him over Jordan Spieth and Sam Burns in the $10,000 range and it looks like he’ll be the lowest owned of the three.

Victor Perez

DK: $7,800 — FD: $9,100

SG: OTT — N/A
SG: APP — N/A
SG: ATG — N/A
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — N/A
Bogey Avoidance — N/A
Noto’s Rating — 74.6

Perez doesn’t play a lot of golf in this part of the world, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares this week. I see a golfer that recently won in a strong field (Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship) and that is coming off of four straight top 30s on the DP World Tour. He’s top 20 in strokes gained tee to green over there and we know European players tend to have a lot of success in Florida, especially on the more difficult courses. He’s currently 63rd in the Official World Golf Rankings, which is much higher than those priced around him this week.

Stephan Jaeger

DK: $7,800 — FD: $9,500

SG: OTT — 27
SG: APP — 20
SG: ATG — 20
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 32
Bogey Avoidance — 23
Noto’s Rating — 69.5

Jaeger bombs may not need to hit many drivers this week, but that shouldn’t stop him from continuing the solid run that he’s been on. For one reason or another, he’s long been a favorite of the RG golf community. In this field, he’s top 35 in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained putting on bermuda, and bogey avoidance. That’s extremely rare in this field. His putter has held him back recently, but he has gained 4.1, 8.1, and 4.9 strokes tee to green in his last three events.

Mark Hubbard

DK: $7,100 — FD: $8,500

SG: OTT — 71
SG: APP — 22
SG: ATG — 44
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 65
Bogey Avoidance — 33
Noto’s Rating — 65.8

I’ve had a tough time trusting the model when it comes to the value plays this year and I always look back and say I should have trusted the numbers. While I don’t love the spot for Hubbard myself, the model is on board. As noted in the course preview, strokes gained on approach, strokes gained around the green, and bogey avoidance all come in handy this week. Hubbard is top 45 in this field in all three categories. He’s also a positive putter on bermuda greens, which doesn’t hurt. He doesn’t have a great track record here, but he’s coming off of respectable top 45s at both THE PLAYERS and the Honda Classic.

Kevin Roy

DK: $6,300 — FD: $7,000

SG: OTT — 81
SG: APP — 2
SG: ATG — 124
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 133
Bogey Avoidance — 76
Noto’s Rating — 49.4

If you are looking to pair two of the $10,000 golfers together this week, you’ll likely need to dip into the bargain bin section of golfers. My favorite punt of the week is Roy. While we only have a small sample size (nine ShotLink events), he is second in this field in strokes gained on approach and second in this field in proximity from 175+ yards. He’s not great off the tee and the short game is a real concern, but it’s hard to ignore those approach numbers at this price point. He enters the week in nice form after finishes of T33 in Puerto Rico and T29 at the Honda Classic.

PGA Betting Card

To compare odds across sportsbooks, check out the Scores and Odds golf page.

Last week: -7.8 units

Season total: +0.2 units

This week: 8.5 units in play

Note: Keegan Bradley has withdrawn, so I have taken his bets off the card for the week.

Valspar Championship

Outright

• Justin Thomas + UCLA to win NCAA championship (0.5 units at +15600 DraftKings)
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2500 BetMGM)
• Adam Hadwin (+2500 BetMGM)
• Davis Riley (+3500 DraftKings)

Top 10

• Tommy Fleetwood (+310 FanDuel)
• Adam Hadwin (+310 FanDuel)
• Davis Riley (+360 DraftKings)

Placement Parlays

• Top 40 Parlay: Tommy Fleetwood + Matt Fitzpatrick + Wyndham Clark + Benny An + Jhonattan Vegas (+1256 FanDuel)
• Top 40 Parlay: Mark Hubbard + Kevin Roy (+1175 FanDuel)

Note: All bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Image Credit: Getty Images

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