PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings & FanDuel: Valspar Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Valspar Championship
There’s no way around it — it was a rough week for the core plays at THE PLAYERS Championship. The conviction plays were much better, but it was ultimately a losing week for yours truly because I played Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler. The show that Scheffler put on was nothing short of spectacular. He ran away with the event and won by five strokes despite gaining 0.1 strokes putting. We typically see winners gain a lot of strokes on the greens, especially in run away events like last week. Min Woo Lee stole my heart (in a good way), Tom Hoge continues to be one of the best stories (made $1.4 million and still flew home on coach), Max Homa continues to trend toward a major win, and Tyrrell Hatton remains one of the more polarizing players on tour.
With this being the first non-designated event in the last three weeks and with it being sandwiched between THE PLAYERS and the WGC Match Play, it didn’t draw the strongest field. We have a few big names in the field, but most opted for a week off. With March Madness starting on Thursday, this event isn’t going to get as much attention as most on the PGA Tour. From a DFS perspective, this could provide us with a big edge over the field if we put in the extra time for research and roster construction. I will certainly be filling out my fair share of NCAA brackets, but I will also keep my foot on the pedal when it comes to my golf research.
Is it too much to ask for all six golfers in my main lineup to make the cut this week? Asking for a friend.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a Par 71 that features four par fives and five par threes. It measures 7,340 yards and has been one of the toughest non-major venues on the PGA Tour. The course has played a little easier the last two times around, which has resulted in the course growing up the rough (from 3 inches to 3.75 inches) and cutting down the intermediate rough (from 72 inches wide to 21 inches wide). The fairways were pinched as well, as golfers will have an average of 22 yards of fairway to work with in landing areas. Those changes alone will lead to tougher scoring and then we throw in the fact that we are expecting 25+ MPH gusts Friday through Sunday.
This is much different than most Florida courses, as the fairways are tree-lined and the course features elevation changes. With thick rough and narrow fairways, many will opt to hit less than driver on a number of holes and we’ve seen that backed up in the data (averaging driving distance here is well below tour average). The greens are small (5,800 square feet on average) and tough to hit, which places an emphasis on both approach play and around the green play. We’ve seen a number of bad putters perform well here (Paul Casey, I’m looking at you) in the past, so I’m focusing more on tee to green than actual putting this week, although I will still look at putting splits on bermuda greens.
Model Video & Download Link for the Valspar Championship
Tournament Info
Field Size:
- 144 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
Golf Course
- Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort
- Palm Harbor, Florida
- Par 71 (four par fives), 7,340 yards
Course Notes
- Unlike most Florida courses, this is tree-lined and has elevation changes
- Difficulty the last five years: 29th, 20th, 6th, 6th, 17th
- Thick rough this week and 25+ MPH gusts expected Friday through Sunday
- Very narrow off the tee (fairways are 24 yards wide on average)
- Very few drivers need to be hit on this course outside of the par fives
- Water is in play on nine of the 18 holes
- Small (5,800 square feet) bermudagrass greens
- The ‘Snake Pit’ (holes 16 through 18) provides an exciting finish
What I’m Looking For
- Solid all-around
- Good long iron players
- Good scramblers
- Bermuda putters
- Bogey avoidance
Core Plays
Justin Thomas
DK: $10,900 — FD: $12,000
SG: OTT — 9
SG: APP — 5
SG: ATG — 2
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 115
Bogey Avoidance — 20
Noto’s Rating — 96.3