PGA DFS Core Plays - DraftKings: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS plays at various salary ranges for the coming week’s golf tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
While a recap of the Valspar Championship is deserved, we have a lot to talk about for this week’s WGC Match Play. The format is obviously different from every other event on tour and we want to make sure to build lineups optimally because a large portion of the field will fail to do so. This might be the only week of the year where you will have +EV lineups (including the cost of the rake) right at lineup lock if you build them optimally.
Let’s start with the format of the event. There are 64 golfers in the field and rather than doing a huge bracket that is single-elimination, the first stage is pool play with 16 groups of four golfers. For the first three days (the tournament starts on Wednesday), golfers will face each off against each other in their respective groups. One winner will come from each group (ties go to sudden-death playoff holes) and advance to the round of 16. From there, it’s single-elimination bracket style. If golfers advance to the final 16 and win, they will end up playing 36 holes on Saturday. If they win their first match in the final eight, they will end up playing another 36 holes on Sunday. If you make it to one of the final two matches, you will end up playing seven rounds of golf over the course of five days.
This might be the best event of the year to sweat when it comes to the first few days of the tournament. There are so many matches going on at the same time and other than a few on Friday (with some golfers already being eliminated), most of them will have meaning and be intense. You can bet individual matchups, you can bet winners for each group, and you can bet outrights. Trying to predict who is going to come out of each pool and who is going to win is incredibly difficult, but it sure is a great event for the sweat. The nature of match play is that you can be the second best golfer in the field one day and lose or you can be the second worst golfer in the field and win. It’s the one event of the year where it’s not one golfer vs. the field. They will only need to beat the golfer put in front of them that round.
Now, when it comes to DFS, roster construction is incredibly important. Much like the NCAA tournament, it’s almost impossible to build a perfect bracket (or in this case, lineup). However, we want to build optimally to at least give ourselves a chance at a lineup that is as close to perfect as possible. Luckily, LineupHQ can help solve all of our problems if we add a couple of simple rules into the optimizer. The first is to build groups for all 16 of the groups in the event and to make sure you have a maximum of one for each group. So for instance, Jon Rahm, Tom Kim, Davis Riley, and Alex Noren are all in Group 1. All you have to do is put those four in a group in LineupHQ and chance the maximum to one. Repeat this for all 16 groups. This will assure that every lineup you build will not have golfers facing each other in the pool play stage.
The next step is to build groups with each quadrant of 16 golfers. So the first step will have 16 groups of four golfers. This step will have four groups of 16 golfers. Here is a link to the bracket to help you get the groups correctly. So if you open up that bracket, you’ll want to group all of the golfers from Scottie Scheffler down to Matt Kuchar. Then group all golfers from Max Homa down to Nick Taylor. Then group all golfers from Jon Rahm to Andrew Putnam. And finally, group all golfers from Xander Schauffele to Scott Stallings. In each of these groups, you are going to set the minimum of one as the rule which will guarantee that every build you have will feature at least one golfer from each quadrant.
These two simple steps (it takes a little time, but it’s actually kind of fun) will assure that you don’t have any golfers facing each other in pool play and that every lineup you build will have a chance at the final four. Some will say you should do the same for the elite eight, but I’ve found that if your player pool is small, it will limit the number of combinations that you can create. I like the mix of my lineups a bit more with just the two rules that I mentioned in detail.
For the course, Austin Country Club is a Pete Dye design that is a Par 71 and that measures 7,108 yards. It’s the perfect course for match play because you can make a lot of birdies and you can make a lot of bogeys here. You can be aggressive off the tee or you can play conservatively. There are a lot of risk/reward shots that bring a lot of strategy into play. There isn’t a strong course fit, as we’ve seen shorter and longer hitters win here in the past.
I highly recommend watching the model video and downloading the model this week. Even if you don’t want to create your own set of ratings, the model features the groups, the overall strength of each group (based on the ratings), and who may have the easiest path in the pool play stage. I don’t mind looking at match play records and course history, but for the most part I want golfers that have the best chance of advancing to the round of 16. From there, we take our chances.
Model Video & Download Link for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Tournament Info
Field Size:
- 64 golfers
Format:
- Group play for first three days (starts Wednesday)
- 16 golfers advance from group stage (one from each pool of four)
- Bracket-style for the final 16 to crown a champion
Golf Course
- Austin Country Club in Texas
- Par 71 that measures 7,108 yards
Course Notes
- Pete Dye design
- Perfect course for match play, can be aggressive or conservative
- Lot of risk/reward shots on the course
- Course doesn’t favor one specific skill set
Core Plays
Tony Finau
DK: $9,800
SG: OTT — 7
SG: APP — 1
SG: ATG — 16
SG: Putting — 11
Bogey Avoidance — 1
Noto’s Rating — 84.8
Finau has never advanced out of the pool play stage at this event, but he’s come close so many times. He lost in a sudden death playoff in 2018 and has come close to advancing in each of the last three editions. I would argue that he’s a better golfer now than he has been at any stage of his career and he has plenty of match play experience during his time with the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup teams. He’s one of the few golfers in the field that is above-average in all facets of the game — he’s solid off the tee, he’s elite on approach, he’s good around the greens, and he’s become an excellent putter over the last 12 months. I have him as the most likely of any player to advance from his group (based on the Noto Ratings), as he’ll square off against Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Adrian Meronk, and Kurt Kitayama.
Tyrrell Hatton
DK: $9,000
SG: OTT — 27
SG: APP — 16
SG: ATG — 50
SG: Putting — 12
Bogey Avoidance — 39
Noto’s Rating — 80.9
Hatton was originally going to be one of my bets this week, but his number cratered from +4000 to +2500 before I could place my bet. Instead, I’ll have to load up on him in DFS. The last time we saw him, he finished second at THE PLAYERS after carding a 29 on the back nine. He’s been playing some incredible golf of late and he isn’t afraid to tell anyone and everyone what he thinks of each golf course. Based on his history here, this seems to be a track that he likes. He’s advanced out of the group stage in three of the last four years and lost in a sudden-death playoff another year. He loves Pete Dye courses and has one of the easiest (on paper) groups in pool play. He’ll battle with Russell Henley, Ben Griffin, and Lucas Herbert.
Will Zalatoris
DK: $8,900
SG: OTT — 10
SG: APP — 10
SG: ATG — 52
SG: Putting — 60
Bogey Avoidance — 36
Noto’s Rating — 77.5
Zalatoris has struggled with his form ever since his injury last fall. He’s made adjustments to his swing and he hasn’t been able to find as much consistency as we saw from his last year. The putter is always a wildcard, but the ball striking can be some of the best on tour when he’s right. His form may not look great on paper, but he gained 7.8 strokes ball striking at the Genesis Invitational and 5.6 strokes ball striking at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We can let one bad week at THE PLAYERS slide. He’s from Texas and made it to the final eight here last year. I love the price point and like his chances to advance against the likes of Ryan Fox, Andrew Putnam, and Harris English.
Conviction Plays
Jason Day
DK: $9,100
SG: OTT — 16
SG: APP — 30
SG: ATG — 4
SG: Putting — 18
Bogey Avoidance — 12
Noto’s Rating — 73.7
You didn’t think I’d miss an opportunity to write up Day, did you? I’ve been high on Day since the beginning of this run, so there’s no way I’m hopping off now. He has posted top 21 finishes in 10 of his last 11 starts. There are some events where he does it with his ball striking and others where he does it with his short game. Having that balanced attack is great for match play and it’s worth noting that he already has two match play titles under his belt (including one at this course in 2016). I have a feeling he’s going to be a factor at the majors this year, but maybe he can rattle off a win before then. The only reason he’s not a core play is his group. He has some tough competition with Collin Morikawa, Victor Perez, and Adam Svensson.
Matt Fitzpatrick
DK: $8,500
SG: OTT — 11
SG: APP — 58
SG: ATG — 22
SG: Putting — 20
Bogey Avoidance — 2
Noto’s Rating — 69.7
There are a few reasons why I am going back to Fitz this week after back-to-back missed cuts. The first is that I genuinely like Fitz and that the model likes him as well. If we zoom out, the recent missed cuts are just a blip on the radar. I know he’s been dealing with a neck injury, but he wouldn’t have teed it up last week if it was really bothering him. The second reason to like him is that he’s one of the best in the field at bogey avoidance. He can sit back and let others beat themselves in this type of format. He’s never advanced to the round of 16 here, but he has lost in three sudden-death playoffs in the last five years. The third reason is the combination of ownership (15%) and price ($8,500). And finally, the last reason is his group. Anything can happen in match play, but Fitz is a better golfer than Sahith Theegala, Min Woo Lee, and J.J. Spaun.
Corey Conners
DK: $7,900
SG: OTT — 8
SG: APP — 12
SG: ATG — 60
SG: Putting — 59
Bogey Avoidance — 26
Noto’s Rating — 62.6
For the most part, I’m taking a balanced approach for my main lineup. Rather than going with the stars and scrubs, I’m going with mid-to-upper range golfers that I think can advance and then golfers in the lower mid-range that are clearly the second best golfers in their respective groups. Conners did not play well at THE PLAYERS, but that was the case for a lot of the big names. He’s still one of the best ball strikers in the world and he finished third here last year. The short game can be suspect at times, but good ball striking puts a lot of pressure on opponents in match play. I don’t see Davis Thompson or Sepp Straka advancing in this group, so it really comes down to Conners and Cameron Young.
Keegan Bradley
DK: $7,700
SG: OTT — 17
SG: APP — 29
SG: ATG — 59
SG: Putting — 26
Bogey Avoidance — 25
Noto’s Rating — 63.0
Bradley has talked a lot about how much he wants to be on the Ryder Cup team later this year. There’s no way to know for sure, but I assume he withdrew from the Valspar last week in order to get ready for this week’s event. A strong showing at the match play is always a good talking point to be a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup and if he plays well enough the next few months, he’ll be on the team automatically. He’s a good ball striker and an improving putter. He’ll have to get past Rory McIlroy in his group, but we’ve seen Rory fail to advance out of the group stage in three of his last four appearances at this event.
Si Woo Kim
DK: $7,500
SG: OTT — 17
SG: APP — 32
SG: ATG — 19
SG: Putting — 28
Bogey Avoidance — 30
Noto’s Rating — 65.5
Kim may not have the easiest group (Viktor Hovland, Matt Kuchar, and Chris Kirk), but he’s a golfer that I could see making a deep run this week. If you are playing tournaments, you want to chase upside and I don’t think a Si Woo win is out of the question this week. He was the leading points winner for the International Team at the Presidents Cup and he’s a Pete Dye specialist. He’s won THE PLAYERS and the AmEx, both of which feature Dye courses. He’s been more consistent over the last year than at any point of his career and ownership should be reasonable given the strength of his group.
PGA Betting Card
To compare odds across sportsbooks, check out the Scores and Odds golf page.
Last week: -4.4 units
Season total: -4.2 units
This week: 9.5 units in play
WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play
Outright
- Patrick Cantlay +1800 (DraftKings)
- Max Homa +2000 (DraftKings)
- Tony Finau +2200 (FanDuel)
- Xander Schauffele +2500 (DraftKings)
- Jason Day +3000 (DraftKings)
- Si Woo Kim +8000 (0.5 units DraftKings)
Wednesday Matchups
- Max Homa (-122) over Justin Suh
- Patrick Cantlay (-148) over Nick Taylor
- Corey Conners (-122) over Sepp Straka
- Xander Schauffele (-136) over Cam Davis
Note: All bets are for one unit unless stated otherwise.
Image Credit: Getty Images
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