PGA DFS Picks - Expert Survey: Sanderson Farms Championship

Sanderson Farms Championship

Who is your favorite golfer for optimal lineups?

Notorious: Sam Burns
STLCardinals84: Sam Burns
redkacheek: Russell Henley
hondizzle: Denny McCarthy

Who is your favorite golfer for large field contests?

Notorious: Taylor Montgomery
STLCardinals84: Keegan Bradley
redkacheek: J.T. Poston
hondizzle: Davis Riley

Who is your favorite salary saver on the board?

Notorious: Stephan Jaeger
STLCardinals84: Justin Suh
redkacheek: Davis Thompson
hondizzle: Alex Smalley

Which value-priced golfer has the best chance of making the cut?

Notorious: Alex Smalley
STLCardinals84: Adam Svensson
redkacheek: Alex Smalley
hondizzle: C.T. Pan

Which golfer are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Sahith Theegala
STLCardinals84: Scott Stallings
redkacheek: Sahith Theegala
hondizzle: Sahith Theegala

Which high-priced golfer will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?

Notorious: Davis Riley
STLCardinals84: Denny McCarthy
redkacheek: Denny McCarthy
hondizzle: Sam Burns

What type of golfers are you targeting most? (ie: bomber, short game specialist)

Notorious: Bomber + Putter
STLCardinals84: Scorers
redkacheek: Birdie Makers
hondizzle: All Around

Which statistic other than Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green are you weighing most?

Notorious: SG: OTT
STLCardinals84: SG: Approach
redkacheek: Positive SP: APP%
hondizzle: SG: Approach

Predict the top three finishers of the event.

Notorious: 1. Montgomery 2. Jaeger 3. Poston
STLCardinals84: 1. Bradley 2. Burns 3. Theegala
redkacheek: 1. Henley 2. Detry 3. Poston
hondizzle: 1. McCarthy 2. Smalley 3. Poston

Predict the winning score of the week (e.g., E, -5, -10).

Notorious: -22
STLCardinals84: -23
redkacheek: -23
hondizzle: -22

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

Notorious: This is one of the few courses where I actively look to target distance off the tee. The fairways are narrow and tree-lined, but the penalty for missing them is one of the lowest that we see on tour each year. With the greens being easy to hit on average, finding a hot putter will be critical if golfers want to be in the mix on Sunday.

STLCardinals84: The winning score has checked in at -18 or better in each of the last seven editions of this event, and many of those editions featured even weaker fields than what we see even now given that the tournament used to be an alternate field event. There is hardly any trouble around this place. The penalty for missing fairways is low, the greens are easy to hit, and the weather does not project to be a problem. Don’t be surprised if we see a course record set this week.

redkacheek: This course is extremely scorable and it appears that many players take that to an extreme off-the-tee. Looking at the Driving Accuracy and GIR% numbers, you can see that there is not much penalty for missing the fairways due to the short approach shots. Players should have about 5 approaches from inside 125 yards (not counting 3 of the reachable Par 5s). We are still very early in the season and it can seem difficult to trust data from 3 months ago. For that reason, solid T2G numbers will be vital this week, as well as baking in course history (for veterans) and heavier than usual weight on Fortinet results for rookies.

hondizzle: The Country Club Of Jackson will host its 8th Sanderson Farms this week. I find it very interesting that both bombers and plotters have played well at this venue. Although the course is narrow, there does not seem to be much penalty to missing fairways. Longer hitters like Cameron Champ and Sam Burns have used this strategy to perform well in this event. On the other side of the coin dinkers like Nick Taylor and Ryan Amour have also had success on this course. For our purpose I think you can make a case for targeting both bombers and plotters this week. Due to the style in which they play I would be more app to take a bomber in poor recent form over a plotting type of golfer who is struggling.

Who is your top contrarian golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: Thomas Detry – The fact that he has played most of his golf in Europe and the fact that he’s never played this event should keep his ownership at a reasonable level. The Belgian bomber finished T5 at the BMW PGA Championship (+3.3 strokes T2G) a few weeks back and followed that up with a T12 at the Fortinet Championship (+7.4 strokes T2G). He should be a great fit for the Country Club of Jackson and perhaps this is the year he finally breaks out on the PGA Tour.

STLCardinals84: Justin Suh – Everyone was willing to target Suh in his first start after getting his PGA Tour card. He finished with a flourish on the Korn Ferry Tour to end the 2021-2022 season, and that had him as one of the most highly regarded “new” PGA Tour card holders. Of course, he proceeded to miss the cut at the Fortinet Championship. Meanwhile, the other heralded player in Taylor Montgomery played very well. That is going to have everyone flocking to Montgomery and fleeing from Suh this week, but it’s not like one tournament will define their careers. I’m willing to give Suh another shot at much lower ownership this time around.

redkacheek: Thomas Detry – Detry has had a hot and cold run for the past 2 months, with 2 MCs and 4 Top 12s. He is a long-hitter which we know can skew his Approach stats when viewing Strokes Gained. Fortunately for our Spectrum data, we can see he’s actually a positive approach player gaining 0.02 strokes per approach shot to the field. I really like Detry at his price and with upside for a Top 3 or win in this field.

hondizzle: Byeong-Hun An- An is back on the PGA Tour after earning his card on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. Sometimes a demotion to the Korn Ferry Tour is the best remedy for a struggling professional. An has always been a great on paper player in terms of stats, but up until now he has just not done much in terms of taking his game to the next level. Many forget that An was on the 2019 International Team. An should have motivation to play well early and often this season and will look to build on his top 3 finish in his first start of the new season. An also has a 3rd place finish at the 2019 Sanderson Farms.

Who is your top overall golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: Taylor Montgomery – It’s tempting to go with Burns here given the fact that he’s clearly the best golfer in the field and the defending champ, but it’s hard to know where his motivation lies after competing in the Presidents Cup last week. I still like Burns, but will go with T-Mont as my top overall play. He finished the Korn Ferry Tour season with seven top 10s in his last nine events. He finished first in scoring average and in birdie average for the season. He secured his PGA Tour card and stayed hot at the Fortinet Championship where he finished third. He’s an elite putter that can make birdies in bunches.

STLCardinals84: Sam Burns – He’s the defending champion. This is an extremely weak field. Burns is clearly the most talented golfer in the tournament. I expect him to be motivated after an underwhelming personal showing at the Presidents Cup. This is a “don’t overthink it” spot for me.

redkacheek: Russell Henley – It’s a double edged sword to rely on stats “too” much this early in the season but in terms of ball-striking there is arguably no one better in this field. He also has some decent course history to back up his lead-in form with 2 made Cuts (T54 and T14). He is very expensive, so it’s a bet on him capitalizing on this weak field while also having the other top priced players MC or finish outside of the Top 30.

hondizzle: Denny McCarthy- This spot on paper should be Sam Burns. I am always leery of playing a defending champ, and when you factor in what could be a Presidents Cup hangover, I will shy away from making a ton of Burns rosters this week. That being said there is not a lot to love in terms of top end spends for the week. Denny McCarthy stands out as a great choice for the week. Always a great putter, McCarthy has really worked hard on his long game over the past few seasons. McCarthy has 4 top 20 finishes in a row at this event. Its not uncommon to see a first time winner in the wrap around season, and McCarthy could end up being that player this week.

What is your hot take of the week?

Notorious: Stephan Jaeger has a chance to win on Sunday and finishes in the top five.

STLCardinals84: Justin Suh finishes inside the top five.

redkacheek: Only one player over $9k finishes inside the Top 6.

hondizzle: The Presidents Cup hangover is real, and Sam Burns misses the cut.

Image Credit: Imagn