PGA DFS First Look: PGA Championship

ScoresAndOdds

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SAO5.12

PGA Championship Preview

We don’t need to waste time covering last week’s birdie fest in Texas because the year’s second major is on tap this week in Kiawah Island. The Ocean Course will be the longest course in major history, checking in at 7,876 yards. While this is a Par 72 and while they will utilize different tee boxes throughout the week, make no mistake about it — this is a mammoth of a golf course. It was designed by Pete Dye in 1991 and has one of the highest slope ratings in the country. There are very few flat lies here and the course is right on the coast, which amplifies the impact of the wind.

Off the tee, golfers will see generous fairways that were fairly easy to hit in the 2012 rendition of the PGA Championship. Hitting these fairways will be critical, as the greens in regulation numbers from the fairway compared to the rough/bunkers/fescue differed by nearly 30%. The greens are elevated and feature severe run-offs that will repel wayward approach shots. The fairways and greens both feature seashore paspalum grass, which is essentially a cousin of bermuda that is better suited to deal with all of the salt by the ocean.

In addition to the raw length, the wind will be a primary defense of the course. This is essentially an Americanized version of links golf where there are very few trees on the property. With this being right on the coast, there always seem to be winds that impact both shots and putts. I’ve checked the weather a number of times already and the forecast seems to change every few hours. This is one of those weeks where monitoring the weather could pay large dividends if one wave ends up having a much better draw.

If you like comp courses, I’ve heard PGA Tour players mention four similar venues — Whistling Straits, Chambers Bay, PGA National, and TPC Sawgrass. In terms of course fit, distance off the tee doesn’t hurt, but I’m not sure being a bomber is a prerequisite for success here. Rory McIlroy won here in 2012, but the rest of the leaderboard was filled with grinders and European Tour players. I am looking for strong all-around golfers that gain strokes off the tee, on approach (especially with long irons, and around the green. Experience on Pete Dye tracks and on long, difficult golf courses is also preferred.

Cut Rule:

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

Yardage Specialists (Based on Holes at Kiawah Island)

Salaries, Odds, and Recent Form (Last Five Events)

Golfer Odds DK FD YH DK % +/- FD % +/- YH % +/- -1 -2 -3 -4 -5
Rory McIlroy 10 $11,500 $12,100 $46 0% 0% 300% 1 68 28 143 10
Jon Rahm 13 $10,500 $11,800 $46 100% 50% 100% 34 96 5 5 9
Justin Thomas 13 $11,300 $11,900 $48 -33% -33% -67% 26 13 21 42 1
Jordan Spieth 14 $10,100 $11,400 $36 50% 50% 425% 9 3 1 9 48
Bryson DeChambeau 14 $10,200 $11,600 $48 0% 0% -80% 55 9 46 42 3
Dustin Johnson 17 $10,900 $11,700 $48 -50% -33% -83% 48 13 61 28 48
Xander Schauffele 19 $9,600 $11,300 $45 14% 0% -14% 14 3 18 113 39
Viktor Hovland 20 $9,300 $11,000 $43 38% 13% 25% 3 3 21 42 84
Collin Morikawa 27 $9,800 $10,900 $44 -22% 11% -22% 7 18 56 41 1
Daniel Berger 28 $8,700 $10,300 $40 70% 60% 60% 3 13 56 18 9
Hideki Matsuyama 32 $9,400 $10,800 $42 -9% 0% 0% 39 1 30 42 73
Patrick Reed 33 $9,100 $10,700 $42 8% 0% -8% 6 71 8 28 22
Webb Simpson 35 $9,200 $10,500 $44 -8% 8% -46% 9 12 28 84 6
Tony Finau 35 $8,600 $10,400 $41 29% 7% 0% 96 10 81 28 100
Cameron Smith 36 $8,900 $9,900 $34 0% 33% 67% 9 10 28 17 11
Brooks Koepka 37 $9,500 $11,200 $44 -44% -50% -56% 105 61 2 38 1
Patrick Cantlay 38 $9,000 $10,600 $42 -18% -24% -35% 80 76 75 18 120
Scottie Scheffler 41 $8,500 $9,500 $37 6% 56% 6% 47 29 18 54 2
Abraham Ancer 44 $7,900 $9,800 $38 37% 16% -11% 2 5 18 26 23
Tyrrell Hatton 44 $8,000 $10,200 $41 20% -15% -30% 39 18 56 73 21
Sam Burns 45 $7,500 $9,400 $29 67% 43% 52% 2 1 39 106 147
Will Zalatoris 47 $8,800 $10,100 $34 -27% -18% 14% 17 96 42 2 28
Matthew Fitzpatrick 51 $8,400 $9,900 $35 -13% -13% 4% 113 4 34 18 9
Paul Casey 52 $7,700 $9,800 $36 25% -8% -13% 21 76 26 28 5
Louis Oosthuizen 52 $8,000 $9,600 $29 -4% 4% 28% 8 26 61 41 6
Tommy Fleetwood 52 $8,200 $10,000 $34 -15% -27% -4% 14 67 46 5 84
Corey Conners 57 $7,600 $9,300 $29 19% 19% 19% 43 21 4 8 14
Sungjae Im 59 $8,300 $9,700 $36 -25% -14% -25% 132 29 13 84 42
Joaquin Niemann 59 $7,800 $9,600 $31 -3% -10% 3% 18 8 40 18 25
Marc Leishman 61 $7,600 $9,500 $24 7% -7% 67% 21 5 28 73 89
Shane Lowry 68 $7,800 $9,100 $21 -10% 16% 110% 65 9 21 42 36
Justin Rose 71 $8,100 $9,700 $27 -28% -25% 25% 135 7 WD 54 2
Keegan Bradley 73 $7,300 $8,900 $21 27% 24% 97% 18 2 23 30 29
Adam Scott 74 $7,900 $9,400 $30 -24% -12% -9% 54 13 48 54 38
Sergio Garcia 78 $7,600 $9,200 $27 -9% -3% 14% 92 85 56 5 9
Brian Harman 81 $7,400 $9,000 $28 6% 6% -3% 18 13 12 5 3
Bubba Watson 82 $7,500 $9,000 $26 -5% 3% 14% 18 13 26 9 84
Gary Woodland 83 $7,500 $8,800 $24 -8% 16% 32% 5 143 40 6 84
Matt Wallace 84 $7,400 $8,900 $20 -3% 5% 110% 6 18 34 3 28
Charl Schwartzel 87 $6,800 $8,300 $20 73% 50% 105% 3 14 21 26 69
Si Woo Kim 88 $7,200 $9,100 $24 10% -12% 22% 55 33 12 23 56
Jason Day 91 $7,700 $9,300 $28 -29% -24% -17% 73 80 78 42 35
Harris English 92 $7,200 $8,900 $38 5% -5% -60% 13 43 113 21 42
Garrick Higgo 94 $7,400 $25 -14% 2% 1 8 1 4 112
Jason Kokrak 96 $7,100 $8,700 $28 11% 2% -22% 13 49 42 9 8
Lee Westwood 99 $7,400 $9,000 $33 -17% -17% -39% 21 63 61 18 118
Max Homa 105 $7,300 $9,200 $28 -11% -28% -26% 147 6 56 18 84
Robert Macintyre 106 $7,000 $8,600 $21 15% 0% 35% 8 59 12 9 100
Matt Kuchar 107 $7,000 $8,600 $25 12% -2% -8% 17 18 56 12 3
Billy Horschel 108 $7,200 $8,800 $37 -10% -12% -62% 25 50 1 58 89
Cameron Tringale 111 $7,100 $8,600 $22 -2% -6% 16% 80 3 9 13 100
Rickie Fowler 122 $7,000 $8,300 $22 6% 15% 13% 73 116 17 65 125
Emiliano Grillo 126 $7,000 $8,500 $23 4% -2% 8% 14 71 2 6 73
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 131 $6,800 $8,500 $28 28% -4% -35% 33 40 56 41 7
Ryan Palmer 135 $6,900 $8,700 $33 13% -16% -49% 47 63 34 17 17
Charley Hoffman 136 $7,300 $8,600 $21 -25% -14% 16% 18 18 2 34 17
Stewart Cink 139 $6,900 $8,100 $25 9% 19% -21% 37 1 12 19 84
Alexander Noren 139 $6,600 $7,800 $20 45% 33% 41% 21 21 25 46 113
Cameron Champ 141 $7,100 $8,500 $21 -15% -12% 10% 55 26 34 113 105
Kevin Na 142 $6,900 $8,300 $26 3% 0% -30% 29 113 12 42 WD
Branden Grace 143 $6,800 $8,400 $20 13% -8% 34% 54 42 23 100 26
Matt Jones 148 $7,100 $8,500 $20 -19% -16% 32% 37 26 1 55 78
Chris Kirk 153 $7,000 $8,400 $24 -13% -11% -21% 99 7 6 25 48
Russell Henley 156 $7,200 $8,200 $25 -30% 0% -30% 72 126 9 28 3
Aaron Wise 164 $7,200 $8,000 $20 -31% 9% 26% 55 9 122 44 13
Thomas Pieters 167 $6,800 $7,900 $20 5% 14% 24% 73 13 13 15 10
Ian Poulter 167 $7,100 $8,200 $24 -24% -3% -24% 96 21 48 26 9
Carlos Ortiz 168 $6,900 $7,900 $26 -9% 10% -38% 21 65 85 78 42
Cameron Davis 183 $6,900 $8,200 $22 -10% -7% -14% 26 126 25 69 33
Kevin Streelman 185 $6,700 $7,700 $20 9% 16% 17% 26 99 33 9 36
Francesco Molinari 187 $6,800 $8,400 $20 -3% -21% 15% 96 52 100 111 8
Brendon Todd 189 $6,700 $8,000 $25 6% -1% -38% 39 46 42 35 57
Victor Perez 195 $6,900 $8,000 $22 -15% -3% -19% 72 4 9 68 52
Zach Johnson 205 $6,800 $8,000 $20 -7% -4% 11% 51 29 76 72 81
Phil Mickelson 207 $6,700 $8,200 $21 1% -15% -13% 69 71 21 96 25
Sebastian Munoz 212 $6,600 $8,100 $21 11% -11% -14% 55 132 67 40 9
Kevin Kisner 215 $7,000 $8,400 $24 -29% -27% -35% 71 107 61 18 125
Martin Kaymer 222 $7,000 $8,100 $20 -29% -13% 5% 120 3 139 18 44
Harold Varner 225 $6,600 $7,600 $23 6% 8% -28% 80 2 81 19 61
Dylan Frittelli 227 $6,500 $7,800 $20 15% -4% 3% 56 68 9 91 22
Lanto Griffin 228 $6,600 $7,500 $24 4% 9% -38% 26 99 61 34 61
Danny Willett 237 $6,700 $7,800 $20 -7% -6% 0% 11 89 18 61 81
Henrik Stenson 243 $6,900 $8,300 $20 -25% -28% -1% 63 38 96 139 152
Bernd Wiesberger 245 $6,700 $7,800 $20 -10% -8% -2% 34 40 96 42 73
Talor Gooch 248 $6,600 $7,600 $21 -1% 0% -24% 39 26 135 56 46
Joel Dahmen 255 $6,400 $7,700 $20 16% -6% -5% 18 74 1 84 99
Dean Burmester 257 $6,300 $7,300 $20 24% 9% -6% 6 4 1 38 91
Brendan Steele 257 $6,500 $7,500 $22 6% 1% -32% 70 77 3 41 18
Sam Horsfield 267 $6,700 $7,500 $20 -15% -1% -8% 21 71 4 15 3
John Catlin 267 $6,800 $7,500 $20 -22% -1% -8% 73 5 52 1 76
Thomas Detry 270 $6,600 $7,400 $20 -8% 1% -10% 43 71 13 9 28
Erik Van Rooyen 273 $6,500 $7,700 $21 0% -12% -29% 126 96 99 14 9
Maverick McNealy 277 $6,500 $7,100 $21 -1% 9% -30% 96 4 107 147 49
Steve Stricker 278 $6,500 $7,100 $20 -2% 7% -13% 13 100 63 4 60
Adam Hadwin 280 $6,300 $7,600 $21 14% -11% -32% 96 115 85 23 8
Mackenzie Hughes 287 $6,500 $7,700 $21 -4% -16% -32% 96 126 52 40 9
Antoine Rozner 290 $6,600 $22 -13% -39% 73 128 15 18 1
Andy Sullivan 304 $6,400 $7,000 $21 2% 6% -34% 6 71 42 19 68
Martin Laird 304 $6,300 $7,200 $20 10% 1% -16% 61 126 38 30 69
Tom Lewis 307 $6,400 $7,400 $20 0% -8% -18% 73 96 48 25 54
Byeong Hun An 336 $6,400 $7,300 $21 -1% -6% -36% 80 67 67 132 70
Rasmus Hojgaard 350 $6,700 $20 -25% -20% 99 71 12 101 67
Kurt Kitayama 357 $6,600 $7,400 $20 -18% -11% -20% 105 72 15 101 2
Jazz Janewattananond 357 $6,500 $7,000 $20 -11% 1% -20% 11 2 80 50 57
George Coetzee 360 $6,400 $7,000 $20 -5% -1% -22% 101 16 83 10 60
JT Poston 373 $6,100 $7,000 $20 24% -2% -23% 26 54 76 28 112
Brandon Stone 373 $6,300 $7,000 $20 1% -3% -23% 7 44 94 2 112
Kalle Samooja 383 $6,400 $20 -7% -24% 9 3 72 12 28
Denny McCarthy 386 $6,200 $7,000 $21 9% -5% -40% 143 39 13 34 3
Sami Valimaki 403 $6,700 $20 -31% -25% 21 27 22 64 125
Harry Higgs 407 $6,400 $7,000 $20 -10% -6% -26% 73 80 59 81 19
Aaron Rai 407 $6,300 $7,000 $20 -3% -6% -26% 30 24 83 18 97
Padraig Harrington 413 $6,300 $7,300 $20 -4% -16% -27% 105 69 56 129 31
Richy Werenski 423 $6,300 $7,000 $20 -5% -9% -28% 37 135 113 70 132
Takumi Kanaya 430 $6,300 $7,000 $20 -6% -10% -29% 53 9 74 41 62
Jason Dufner 437 $6,300 $7,100 $20 -7% -13% -29% 43 57 76 132 53
Adam Long 453 $6,200 $7,000 $20 2% -11% -30% 147 99 107 81 28
Chez Reavie 453 $6,400 $7,300 $20 -15% -19% -30% 132 126 127 99 113
Lucas Herbert 453 $6,300 $7,000 $20 -8% -11% -30% 123 117 46 70 79
Peter Malnati 473 $6,200 $7,000 $20 -1% -13% -32% 43 89 107 96 132
Rikuya Hoshino 487 $6,200 $7,000 $20 -2% -14% -32% 72 11 45 51
Robert Streb 500 $6,200 $7,000 $20 -2% -15% -33% 80 52 68 13 100
Jimmy Walker 500 $6,200 $7,000 $20 -2% -15% -33% 73 72 29 56 59
Chan Kim 500 $6,200 $7,000 $21 -2% -15% -47% 35 60 62 80 46
Jason Scrivener 513 $6,300 $7,000 $20 -14% -17% -34% 120 41 97 41 2
Brian Gay 517 $6,200 $7,000 $20 -6% -17% -35% 99 76 75 126 46
Daniel Van Tonder 527 $6,100 $21 3% -49% 1 80 71 81 39
Hudson Swafford 530 $6,500 $7,200 $20 -28% -23% -36% 113 115 67 82 6
Jim Herman 730 $6,100 $7,000 $20 2% -19% -36% 154 85 53 53 151
Vijay Singh 917 $6,100 $7,000 $20 1% -20% -37% 86 112 121 WD 62
Y.E. Yang 1000 $6,200 $7,000 $20 -9% -21% -37%
John Daly 1300 $6,000 $7,000 $20 8% -21% -38%
Frank Bensel 1857 $6,000 $20 8% -38%
Shaun Micheel 1867 $6,200 $7,000 $20 -11% -22% -39% 136
Rich Beem 1867 $6,000 $7,000 $20 7% -22% -39% 151 69 55
Omar Uresti 1900 $6,000 $7,000 $20 5% -24% -40% 119 106 66 95 86
Brett Walker 1929 $6,200 $20 -13% -40%
Ben Cook 1933 $6,000 $7,000 $20 4% -25% -41%
Ben Polland 1933 $6,100 $7,000 $20 -5% -25% -41%
Joe Summerhays 1958 $6,100 $20 -6% -41%
Daniel Balin 1967 $6,000 $7,000 1% -26% 88 141
Stuart Smith 1967 $6,000 $7,000 1% -26%
Rob Labritz 1967 $6,000 $7,000 $20 1% -26% -42% 127
Sonny Skinner 1967 $6,100 $20 -7% -42%
Alex Beach 1967 $6,000 $7,000 $20 1% -26% -42%
Patrick Rada 2036 $6,200 $20 -18% -44%
Tim Pearce 2036 $6,100 $20 -10% -44%
Brad Marek 2036 $6,100 $20 -10% -44%
Derek Holmes 2036 $6,100 $20 -10% -44%
Greg Koch 2036 $6,100 $20 -10% -44%
Peter Ballo 2036 $6,000 $20 -2% -44%
Tyler Collet 2036 $6,000 $20 -2% -44%
Larkin Gross 2038 $6,100 $20 -14% -46%
Cover Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious