PGA DFS GPP Breakdown: BMW Championship

Top-ranked grinder, STLCardinals84, will break down his top GPP golf targets for the coming week’s tournament, going over his favorite plays at various price ranges. Who better than PGA DFS master, STLCards, to help you on your way?

BMW Championship

Welcome back, golf fans! The FedEx Cup playoffs began last week with an enjoyable event, as Will Zalatoris finally broke through with a PGA Tour victory in a wild playoff win over Sepp Straka in Memphis.

This week, the remaining 70 playoff participants will tee it up at a new venue to the PGA Tour — Wilmington Country Club in Delaware. This tournament rotates venues every year, and Wilmington CC has not hosted a primary golf event since the amateur Palmer Cup tournament in 2013. Justin Thomas was the only golfer in this field who played in that event, but it was nine years ago, and the course has undergone significant renovations since then. Course history is essentially a non-factor this week. The course is a fairly long par 71 layout with bentgrass greens, though it doesn’t suggest that it will be a bombers’ paradise. A lot of the length comes from the three 580+ yard par fives, two of which are 600+ yards. We are largely guessing when figuring how the course will play, but I do expect it to play somewhat difficult. Given the nature of the course, this is a prototypical ball striking track that will prioritize tee to green play. There are plenty of strategically placed bunkers on the course, and water guards a few approach shots. The greens are also very large, so we will see plenty of long putts. Total driving, ball striking, and par four scoring are the main statistical measures I will be looking at.

With only 68 golfers available for this event (Tommy Fleetwood an Cameron Smith have withdrawn), ownership will start to be more condensed. That makes it harder to find true low-owned gems, but don’t be afraid to get somewhat creative this week. This is the first no cut tournament that we have had in a while, as all 68 golfers will get a chance to compete through all four rounds.

Let’s take a look at some of my favorite GPP plays for this second playoff event!

Jon Rahm
DraftKings: $10,300
FanDuel: $11,400
Yahoo: $48

The looks of this course really make it feel like a Jon Rahm type of layout. I expect it to play somewhat difficult, and we all know that Rahm detests the birdie fests that we often see on the PGA Tour. His tee to green game remains spectacular, and while he isn’t quite as consistent as we would like for a top tier golfer, the winning upside is definitely there — and he seems hungry to go after a FedEx Cup playoff title over the next two weeks. He is my favorite spend at the top of the field this week.

Xander Schauffele
DraftKings: $9,600
FanDuel: $10,700
Yahoo: $44

In prior years, Schauffele would be the chalk in fields like this. His price tags aren’t overly outrageous on any site, and the narrative is always that Xander is motivated in this higher profile events. However, he didn’t play well last week with a T57 finish to start the playoffs, and that’s going to scare some people away. Still, his form in stroke play events prior to that was ridiculous with a 5-13-18-14-1-1-15 run. It’s hard to argue against seven straight top 18 finishes, and one poor week isn’t going to change his long-term outlook. I’m more than happy to buy back in this week.

Viktor Hovland
DraftKings: $9,200
FanDuel: $10,200
Yahoo: $42

Hovland is a fantastic tournament play this week. The only real weakness in his game is his complete inability to chip, and that weakness should be neutralized with the massive greens on this course. The putter has gotten better over the past year, as he actually ranks 11th in this field in strokes gained putting over the last 36 rounds. We know the ball striking will be there. His ownership is going to be significantly lower than a lot of others in this price range, and he absolutely has the ability to win.

Max Homa
DraftKings: $8,500
FanDuel: $9,300
Yahoo: $33

It’s not like Max Homa has been “bad” over the past few months, but we simply haven’t seen his upside quite as much recently, with finishes of 47-16-MC-24-42 over his last five starts. The good news is that ownership has been trending lower, and the statistical profile is still solid. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks inside the top 30 of this field in every single strokes gained category. That all around ability should help tremendously, particularly if this course tends to play difficult. Take the discounted salaries and lower ownership, and grab some Homa exposure in GPP builds.

Aaron Wise
DraftKings: $8,100
FanDuel: $9,000
Yahoo: $27

In terms of point per dollar projections, it’s difficult to argue against Wise as one of the best values on the board this week. He only missed one cut from April through the playoffs, and that kind of consistency is what was missing for him in prior years. He showed some occasional upside as well, finishing 6th in Mexico and 2nd at a strong field Memorial Tournament. Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks inside the top third of this field in every strokes gained category other than short game. Keep riding the wave.

Denny McCarthy
DraftKings: $7,000
FanDuel: $8,100
Yahoo: $20

McCarthy quietly finished T20 last week and appears to have rediscovered some form after a relatively difficult spring / early summer. McCarthy gained over a stroke on approach last week, and we know the short game is generally there. Given that we don’t know how this course will play, I don’t mind leaning on his flat stick ability a little bit. It also should help that he is from this part of the country, having grown up in nearby Maryland. McCarthy also has three other top tens since June, so the potential is there.

Brendan Steele
DraftKings: $6,200
FanDuel: $7,800
Yahoo: $20

Consider this: Over the last 36 rounds of play, Brendan Steele ranks inside the top eight in this field in strokes gained tee to green (7th), off the tee (3rd), on approach (2nd), and ball striking (2nd). Will the short game come around? If it does, he’s an absolute bargain at these salaries. He’s going to get plenty of birdie looks, and I feel more comfortable targeting him given the no cut nature of this event. He’s a great way to round out some GPP builds.

Good luck this week!

Image Credit: Imagn

Meet the Experts Content Posting Times

Top-ranked grinder, STLCardinals84, will break down his top GPP golf targets for the coming week’s tournament, going over his favorite plays at various price ranges. Who better than PGA DFS master, STLCards, to help you on your way?

BMW Championship

Welcome back, golf fans! The FedEx Cup playoffs began last week with an enjoyable event, as Will Zalatoris finally broke through with a PGA Tour victory in a wild playoff win over Sepp Straka in Memphis.

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About the Author

  • Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

  • Justin Van Zuiden, aka stlcardinals84, is a popular RotoGrinders contributor and GrindersLive host who routinely finishes in the top 10 of the TPOY race. He’s appeared in numerous live finals and has logged countless six-figure wins in a host of different sports, including five in PGA. Justin is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at ScoresAndOdds.

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