PGA DFS Core Plays: 3M Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for the 3M Open. Which golfers should you be building your lineups around? Find out below!
The week after The Open Championship typically features a bad event with a weak field, but I’m actually excited for the 3M Open this week. We don’t have the best field teeing it up in Minnesota, but Scottie Scheffler has decided to make a rare appearance. He’s less than 3-1 in the outright market, which is the lowest mark I can remember in quite some time. He’s itching to get back into the winner’s circle after a string of top-5 finishes.
This week’s event has 144 golfers in the field and the standard PGA TOUR cut rule (top 65 and ties). We don’t have the $5,000 floor on DraftKings, which does make fitting Scheffler a bit of a challenge. However, the top 4 point-per-dollar plays in my model are all priced at $7,100 or cheaper, so I like the Scheffler builds more than most weeks. He’s the biggest decision point on the slate, as rostering him really limits what you can do with the rest of your roster.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament notes, recent form, and course notes for the 3M Open, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look.
Let’s talk about TPC Twin Cities. This is a par 71 that measures 7,431 yards. It’s a fairly long course with wide fairways. In theory, this would set up extremely well for the bombers. If you look at the past winners, there have been a few bombers that have won here. However, the data suggests that Driving Accuracy is more important than Driving Distance at this course. That likely has to do with the fact that there are water hazards in play on 13 of the 18 holes. Over 7% of missed fairways off the tee result in a penalty, which is one of the highest marks on the PGA TOUR. It’s also tough to be aggressive on your approach shots if water is in play and you are playing from the rough.
The greens at TPC Twin Cities are average in size (6,500 square feet) and feature pure bentgrass. They should run around 12.5 on the stimpmeter, which is a lot faster than the greens at the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship. The greens are fairly easy to hit in regulation, especially from the fairway. However, many approach shots require golfers to carry large bodies of water, which means an errant approach shot could essentially turn into a 2-stroke penalty (because golfers will have to drop close to where they were originally, rather than right by the green).
We’ve seen all types of golfers contend at this event. If you can hit fairways, hit good approach shots, and avoid big numbers, you are likely going to fare well this week in Minnesota.
Top PGA DFS Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel for the 3M Open
Core Plays
Ben Kohles
DraftKings: $7,300 / pOWN%: 11%
FanDuel: $8,400 / pOWN%: 9%
Course History L5 Years: 20, 24, MC
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 42
Strokes Gained: Approach: 2
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 56
Strokes Gained: Putting: 49
Weighted Proximity: 7
Expected Hole Performance: 9
Many will be surprised by my core play tags this week. The reasoning is that they can work in both Scottie Scheffler and non-Scheffler lineups. Kohles rates out as the 6th-best play in my model this week, yet he’s $7,300 on DraftKings and $8,400 on FanDuel. Over the last 6 months, he’s top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Weighted Proximity, and Expected Hole Performance. He’s posted 6 straight top-30 finishes with a win and a 3rd-place finish. He’s also posted back-to-back top-25 finishes at this course. The form is great, the course fit is great, and he’s played well here in the past.
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