PGA DFS Core Plays: 3M Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
First of all, congratulations to Brian Harman for winning the Open Championship. It was one of the most dominant performances that we’ve seen at a major in a long time. I’ve been a Harman truther for many years, so it hurt not having much exposure to him in betting and DFS, but I’m still very happy for the Georgia Bulldog.
We now turn our attention to the 3M Open. This is the time of year when golfers are doing everything they can to get inside the top 70 in the FedExCup standings in order to secure a spot in the playoffs. A player like Justin Thomas wouldn’t be here if he didn’t have ground to make up. This will be the fifth time the event has been held at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota. The course is a Par 71 that measures 7,431 yards.
The last four winners here have all been at least 15-under par and there are a ton of birdies in store this week. However, there are water hazards in play on 15 of the holes and many of which require golfers to carry large bodies of water. This often results in golfers having to reload and hit the same shot again if they find the hazard, which essentially ends up being a two-stroke penalty. Due to all of the penalty strokes, this course has actually been in the top 25 in difficult each of the last three years.
We’ve seen three bombers and one accuracy player win here over the last four years. The fairways here are generous (35 yards wide in the landing areas), but missing them is costly. In addition to all of the water hazards, the rough is expected to be around four inches this week. Having distance is certainly an advantage here, but only if golfers can keep it in the fairway. For that reason, I am focusing on strokes gained off the tee and total driving rather than focusing on pure distance.
This course certainly has a Florida feel to it, so I don’t mind using the Florida swing as comp courses for the week. I’m also taking a look at East Lake, which is a course where total driving is needed. In addition to driving the ball well, accuracy with irons will be critical this week. Hitting greens in regulation here goes a long way, as it means golfers will be avoiding hazards and giving themselves birdie looks.
Field Breakdown Video & Model Download Link for the 3M Open
This is one of the few weeks where I won’t be discounting golfers that are seeing this course for the first time. Course history has been a lot less important here than it has been at most PGA Tour venues. If you like to do a deep dive into statistics, 62% of approach shots were hit from 125-200 yards last year. We can also take a look at bentgrass splits, as these greens feature pure bentgrass and will measure around 12 on the stimpmeter.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for 3M Open
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
- Kevin Roth’s Forecast (link coming soon)
- Windfinder
- Accuweather
Golf Course
- TPC Twin Cities
- Located in Blaine, Minnesota
- Par 71 — 7,431 yards
- Designer: Arnold Palmer
- Fairway width (landing areas): 35 yards wide
- Green size: 6,500 square feet
- Fairways are bentgrass, rough is bluegrass and fescue
- Green type: bentgrass
- Water hazards: in play on 15 holes
Course Notes
- Surprisingly, has been in the top 25 in difficulty the last three years
- Last four winners: Finau (-21), Champ (-19), Thompson (-15), Wolff (-17)
- In 2022: driving accuracy (64%), GIR (67%), approaches from 125-200 yards (62%)
- One of the most penalizing venues on the PGA Tour with so many water hazards
- Driving the ball well and iron play are critical, we’ve seen bad putters play well here
- My comp courses: PGA National, Bay Hill, Innisbrook, East Lake
What to Look For
- Good total driving
- Good iron play
- Proximity from 125-200 yards
- Greens in regulation
- Bogey Avoidance
Core Plays
Adam Hadwin
DK: $8,900 — FD: $10,600
SG: OTT — 67
SG: APP — 32
Prox (125-200 yards) — 43
Bogey Avoidance — 3
SG: Putting (Bent) — 11
Stat Rank — 11
Noto Rating — 83.2
