PGA DFS Core Plays: 3M Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around?
While I didn’t have a good week of DFS, Xander Schauffele came through with a win at The Open Championship. I luckily had a sizable outright ticket on him that really salvaged the week. It’s crazy how much a golfer’s career can change in a span of a few months. Heading into the season, he was known as a consistent golfer who couldn’t win the big events. Two majors later, he’s in the mix for the Player of the Year Award and already getting thrown into the mix with Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, and Scottie Scheffler as the next potential golfers to get the career grand slam.
While it’s sad to see the majors done for the year, we still have plenty of golf the rest of the year. There’s a bit of a lull in the schedule until the FedExCup Playoffs, but that doesn’t mean we are going to take our foot off the pedal here at RotoGrinders. We will continue to bring you all of the same premium content each and every week. After a two-week detour in Scotland, the PGA TOUR now heads to Minnesota for the 3M Open.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the 3M Open
TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71 that measures 7,431 yards. While birdies will be made in bunches, we can expect plenty of bogeys on the scorecards as well. Water is in play on 15 of the 18 holes, and this is routinely at the top of the list for the most penalty strokes on the PGA TOUR. We’ve seen a mix of short and long hitters win here in the past. While bombers will have an advantage if they hit the ball straight, this week is more about avoiding the water than anything else.
The greens at TPC Twin Cities are large and extremely easy to hit on average. This lowers the importance of around the green play, while it increases the importance of iron play and putting. When the winning score is expected to be in the 20-under par range, golfers will need to make putts to contend. This is a great week to use the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts, as they have three splits in particular that I am emphasizing on in my model — strokes gained on high water danger courses, strokes gained in weak fields, and strokes gained on courses with a high GIR rate.
Editor’s Note: RotoGrinders has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole!
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the 3M Open
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Forecasts
TPC Twin Cities
- Location: Blaine, Minnesota
- Designer: Arnold Palmer
- Par 71 — 7,431 yards
- Recent winners: Lee Hodges (-24), Tony Finau (-17), Cameron Champ (-15), Michael Thompson (-19), Matthew Wolff (-21)
- Difficulty: 2023 (36th), 2022 (14th), 2021 (24th), 2020 (23rd), 2019 (36th)
- Green type: bentgrass
- Green size: 6,500 square feet
- Fairway width: 34 yards
- Holes with water hazards: 15
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving accuracy: 63%
- - Driving distance: 292 yards
- - Greens in regulation: 73%
- 2023 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-100 yards: 9%
- - 100-125 yards: 12%
- - 125-150 yards: 13%
- - 150-175 yards: 18%
- - 175-200 yards: 19%
- - 200+ yards: 29%
Event and Course Notes
- If you like water hazards, you are going to love TPC Twin Cities
- The main defense of the course is water — it’s in play on 15 of the 18 holes
- The fairways here are quite wide and easy to hit on average
- The greens here are large and very easy to hit on average
- There will be a ton of birdies this week, but also a lot of bogeys
- With such a high GIR rate, this often comes down to a putting contest
- I’m not focusing on around the green play this week
- Course history isn’t a must but has been fairly predictive over the years
What to Look For
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Strokes Gained on high water danger courses
- Strokes Gained in weak field events
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Core Plays
Tony Finau
DraftKings: $10,500
FanDuel: $12,000
Total Driving: 21
Strokes Gained Approach: 2
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 10
Strokes Gained Putting: 109
Birdie or Better %: 54
Bogey Avoidance: 87
I’m not too happy about Finau’s price on DraftKings this week. At $10,500, I don’t see how he’s not the most popular play of the week. He’s the odds-on favorite, he’s the most talented golfer in the field, and he has the best course history of anyone in the field (5-for-5 here with a win and two more top 10s). He’s a good total driver of the ball, his iron game has been second to none over the last few months, and he’s figured out how to putt at TPC Twin Cities (positive in four straight appearances). While he missed the cut last week, he was in the wrong wave and only had one bad round. Prior to that, he had five straight top 20 finishes. This is an event he could easily run away with.
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