PGA DFS Core Plays: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Who should you be building your lineups around? Find out below!
Welcome back!
I hope everyone had a good week at the Cognizant Classic. While everyone in this article (other than Andrew Putnam) played well last week, it was a painful Sunday for yours truly. The only one who felt the pain worse than I did was the one who caused the pain… Shane Lowry. He had a 3-stroke lead with a few holes to play, but he hit the ball in the water on back-to-back holes and ended up losing by 2 strokes. I had him in my main DFS lineup, in my Sunday Showdown lineup, and as my one-and-done pick.
While Lowry’s blunder cost me a few grand on the main slate, I still had a good week of Showdown. I’ve actually been more profitable on Showdown slates than I have been on main slates in each of the last 3 years. At this point, I think we can call that a trend. If you aren’t in the Showdown streets, I recommend giving it a try. I have articles and projections for Showdown in Rounds 2, 3, and 4. I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for a big week for the RotoGrinders PGA community.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament notes, recent form, and course notes for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of my favorite events of the year (yes, I know I write that far too often). This is one of the few Signature Events that features a cut. There are 72 golfers set to tee it up this week in Orlando. The top 50 and ties (plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead) will make the cut and stick around for the weekend. You wouldn’t think a small cut like this would matter, but you’ll be surprised at how many lineups have at least one golfer who misses the cut this week. Plus, who doesn’t love sweating the cut line?
Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a Par 72 that measures 7,466 yards. This is one of the longest and most difficult courses on the PGA TOUR. The course is exposed to the elements, and water is in play on 9 of the 18 holes. When the wind picks up, it’s easy to see why the course is so difficult. The forecast for this week doesn’t look too bad, but it looks like we’ll have 10+ MPH sustained winds for all 4 rounds. I expect the winning score to be in the -13 to -15 range.
The fairways here are fairly narrow (32 yards wide on average), and the course has thick rough (3”). Placing the ball in the fairway will give golfers a huge advantage. However, this isn’t solely a precision course. It’s nearly 7,500 yards long, so having distance off the tee is also a benefit. This is one of the only events all year where Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy are more important than TOUR average. Looking at Total Driving or bumping up Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee makes a lot of sense this week.
The greens here are large but fairly difficult to hit in regulation. This typically emphasizes both approach play and around-the-green play. While the former is extremely important, the latter hasn’t been super predictive when it comes to success at Bay Hill. I’m looking for excellent ball strikers who can make putts on bermudagrass greens. I also want to note the importance of course history. Only Augusta National is more predictive when it comes to course history than Bay Hill.
Let’s dive into this week’s DFS plays and bets.
Top PGA DFS Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Core Plays
Matt Fitzpatrick
DraftKings: $9,800 / pOWN%: 16%
FanDuel: $11,400 / pOWN%: 22%
Course History L5 Years: 22, MC, 14, 9, 10
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 37
Strokes Gained: Approach: 25
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 14
Strokes Gained: Putting: 22
A few years ago, Fitzpatrick was a top-5 golfer in the world. He even won the 2022 U.S. Open. We know he can compete with the best. The scary part is that this is the best he has ever struck the ball. In 16 rounds this year, he has gained an average of 1.68 strokes ball striking, which is the 3rd-best mark of anyone in the field. Historically, his short game has been the strongest part of his game. His putter has actually held him back this year, but that shouldn’t be an issue this week. He has played this event 10 times and has never lost strokes putting.
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