PGA DFS Core Plays: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
By some miracle, I managed to scrape out a profit last week at the Cognizant Classic. I had 67% of Eric Cole and 67% of Christiaan Bezuidenhout, but somehow, the rest of my player pool managed to carry me to a decent week of DFS. Now on the betting front, that’s a completely different story. They say good and bad breaks out even over time. I certainly hope that to be the case, as I have made quite a few deposits into the bad break bank lately. I’m ready to make a large withdrawal from the good break bank.
The Florida swing is always one of my favorites and always one of the most tilting. I love that a golfer can make a huge move up the leaderboard with a good round. On the opposite side of that, it can be tilting watching a golfer find the water a few times and cost himself a chance at making the cut (looking at you, C-Bez). This week is a special one, as we head to Arnie’s Place for another Signature Event. Similar to what we saw at the Genesis, there are only 69 golfers in the field. The top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 strokes of the lead will stick around and play the weekend.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club and Lodge is a Par 72 that measures 7,466 yards. We’ve seen this turn into more of a driver-friendly course over the last few years, but that doesn’t mean you can spray the ball. Golfers want to be playing from the fairway. The rough is extremely thick, and it’s tough to stop approach shots on these firm greens unless you are playing from the fairway. Looking at strokes gained off the tee or total driving is your best bet for driving metrics. The greens themselves are large and feature bermudagrass. In 2023, the field hit only 56% of greens in regulation. When greens are tough to hit, it emphasizes approach play and around-the-green play.
This course has been in the top 10 in difficulty on the PGA TOUR in each of the last 5 years. It plays a lot like a major in that it will test all aspects of a golfer’s game. If the driver isn’t working, good luck. If the irons aren’t precise, you are going to make a lot of bogeys. If you can’t scramble, you can’t contend. Typically, the tougher the course, the more important tee-to-green play becomes, and we’ve seen that come into play at this event over the years. I like looking for golfers who are solid all-around, play well in Florida, have a good track record at this course, and are comfortable playing difficult golf courses.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Field Size:
- 69 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 50 and ties plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead
Weather Forecasts
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
- Location: Orlando, Florida
- Par 72 — 7,466 yards
- Fairway width in landing areas: 31.6 yards
- Green type: bermuda
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving distance = 287 yards
- - Driving accuracy = 55%
- - Greens in regulation = 58%
Event Notes
- Signature Event – at least 50 of the 69 golfers will make the cut this week
- 3rd most predictive course history on the PGA TOUR (behind Augusta & Riviera)
- Routinely one of the most difficult non-majors on tour
- Typical Florida course that is exposed to the elements and water lurking everywhere
- Firm and fast bermuda greens, hard to stop the ball out of the rough
- Playable fairways but thick and penalizing rough
- Nearly 30% of approach shots will be hit from 200+ yards
- This course will expose any weakness, need to be solid tee to green
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach (emphasis on 200+ yards)
- Strokes gained off the tee
- Bogey avoidance
- Experience in Florida
- Track record on long and difficult courses
- Course history
Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DraftKings: $11,300 / pOWN: 29%
FanDuel: $12,400 / pOWN: 36%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 2
Strokes Gained Approach: 1
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 1
Strokes Gained Putting (Bermuda): 64
Birdie or Better %: 1
Bogey Avoidance: 1
I plan to start every lineup with Scheffler and/or McIlroy this week. The pricing is soft and we could see upwards of 80% of the field making the cut. If forced to choose between the two, I will side with Scheffler. Over the last 12 months, he’s 1st in this field in ball striking, bogey avoidance, birdie or better percentage, and birdie opportunities. He’s also 1st or 2nd in the field in strokes gained per round in Florida and strokes gained per round on long Par 72 courses. Did I mention the fact that Scheffler has a win and a 4th place finish at this event in the last two years? The putter is obviously the wildcard, but if he gains anything on the greens, he’ll have a good chance of winning this week.
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