PGA DFS Core Plays: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
After a hot start to the season, I have cooled off over the last couple of events. I didn’t have much of anything cooking on Sunday, as I had far too much Lucas Glover and not enough Joe Highsmith. I didn’t exactly love the soft version of PGA National, but at least we saw the course bite back a little on the weekend. The courses should only get more difficult during the rest of the Florida swing.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
While PGA National didn’t quite live up to its reputation, there’s no doubt in my mind that Bay Hill Club and Lodge will be an extremely tough test of golf. This course has been in the top 10 in difficulty on TOUR in each of the last 5 years. The winning score rarely gets into the double digits, and that only happens when the wind is absent. Based on the early forecast this week, we can expect gusts of 20+ MPH on 2 of the 4 days.
We have one of the best fields of the year, as this is another Signature Event. Thankfully, this event features a cut. While only a handful of golfers are going to be watching the weekend from the comfort of their own homes, it’s better than nothing. The top 50 and ties will move on after the 2nd round. With 72 golfers in the field, at least 70% of the field is going to end up making the cut. I expect the 6-of-6 percentage to be high, but you never know how the chalk is going to fare.
Bay Hill is a Par 72 that measures 7,466 yards. The fairways are average in size (32 yards wide) and are tough to hit even in calm conditions. The penalty for missing the fairway is high, as the course features 3” thick rough and water hazards on 9 of the 18 holes. The greens are large (7,500 square feet), lightning fast, and difficult to hit in regulation. Given the difficulty of the course, all aspects of a golfer’s game will be tested.
Good drivers of the ball tend to be rewarded on this course. Length helps on a course that measures nearly 7,500 yards, and accuracy helps, as the greens are a lot easier to hit when your approach shot comes from the fairway. In general, the tougher the course, the more important tee-to-green play becomes. This doesn’t mean good putting is a negative, but it’ll be easier to gain strokes on the field tee to green than it will be on the greens.
Course history has been important here over the years, so I’m bumping up that weight in my model. I am also giving sizable weights to Strokes Gained: Florida, Strokes Gained: Very Difficult Courses, and Strokes Gained: Strong Fields. Let’s have a week!
Editor’s Note: For more tournament and course notes for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, click here.
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Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DraftKings: $12,000 / pOWN%: 32%
FanDuel: $13,200 / pOWN%: 37%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 1
Strokes Gained Approach: 1
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 1
Strokes Gained Putting: 56
Birdie or Better %: 1
Bogey Avoidance: 1
I started the week not knowing if I would target Scheffler or Rory McIlroy as the anchor of my main lineup. I’m ending the week with both in my main lineup. Here’s my thinking — at least 70% of the field is going to make the cut, and 30 of the 72 golfers are in the $6,000 range. I’m hoping to find 4 cheaper golfers who can make the cut for me.
When it comes to Scheffler, it’s hard to ignore his statistics and his course history. Over the last 12 months, he’s 1st in this field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, and Birdie or Better %. The fact that he generally only plays in the biggest events makes those statistics even more impressive. The scary part is that he has finally figured out his putting — he has gained strokes on the greens in 8 of his last 10 events. He hasn’t won this year, but he does have 2 top-10 finishes in 3 events. He loves Bay Hill, as he’s won this event in 2 of the last 3 years.
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