PGA DFS Core Plays: AT&T Byron Nelson
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
AT&T Byron Nelson
It was a mixed bag in terms of the DFS picks for the Wells Fargo Championship, but I did have Wyndham Clark tagged as a core play and featured on the betting card. I hope some of you were able to tail me on that bet at +8000. Let’s hope that’s the start of things to come on the betting front. We now turn our attention to the AT&T Byron Nelson, which will be held at TPC Craig Ranch for the third straight year. If you are looking at course history for the event, make sure to ignore any results prior to 2021.
Given the fact that the two winning scores here have been -25 and -26, the PGA Tour decided to change the 12th hole from a par five into a par four. This doesn’t change anything on our end, but it will impact the scoring a bit. The course will now play as a Par 71 that measures just over 7,400 yards. In terms of difficulty, this has been one of the top five easiest courses on the PGA Tour each of the last two seasons. There’s nothing to suggest this time around won’t be another birdie fest.
The fairways here are quite wide (36 yards on average) and easy to hit for the field. The greens here are quite large (6,800 square feet on average) and easy to hit for the field. Scrambling hasn’t been overly difficult here and to be honest, if you are consistently missing greens, you probably don’t stand much of a chance at this event. This is not a demanding course tee to green and when everyone is hitting fairways and greens, it often turns into a putting contest.
As far as the field goes, it continues to get weaker. Most of the big names took the week off before the PGA Championship and since the field has been released, Jordan Spieth, Mark Hubbard, and Alex Smalley have all withdrawn. Let’s hope that’s the last of the withdrawals. There are 156 golfers in the field and the birdie-fest nature of the event does increase the variance, so don’t be surprised if there is some carnage this week.
You don’t have to be a bomber or an elite iron player or a great scrambler to play well here. Essentially, you have to make birdies and you have to make putts. Birdie or better percentage and strokes gained putting are going to be the biggest weights in my model this week.
Model Video & Download Link for the AT&T Byron Nelson
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
- Roth’s DFS Forecast (link coming soon)
- Windfinder
- Weather Channel
Golf Course
- TPC Craig Ranch
- Location: McKinney, Texas
- Designer: Tom Weiskopf
- Par 71 — 7,414 yards
- Difficulty: Top five easiest on tour the last two seasons
- Fairway width in landing areas: 36.8 yards
- Green type: Bentgrass
- Green size: 6,800 square feet on average
Course Notes
- Only the third year hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson
- Wide fairways and easy to hit greens = birdie fest
- Could see a winning score in the 25-under par range
- Not demanding tee to green, often turns into a putting contest
What to Look For
- Birdie or better percentage
- Strokes gained approach
- Strokes gained off the tee (with a lean to distance)
- Strokes gained putting (with a lean to bentgrass splits)
- Experience in Texas
Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DK: $11,900 — FD: $12,400
SG: OTT — 1
SG: APP — 1
Birdie or Better % — 3
SG: Putting — 72
Noto’s Rating — 97.5
I’m only going with one core play tag this week because Scheffler is really the only golfer that I feel the need to roster in every lineup. After Jordan Spieth withdrew, Scheffler became the clear favorite in this weak field. He’s priced as low at +300 to win in some sportsbooks. He’s first in the field in strokes gained off the tee, first in strokes gained approach, first in strokes gained tee to green, and third in birdie or better percentage. He’s from Texas, so he’s very familiar with how to play in the wind and he’s made the cut at this course each of the last two years. Want to hear something crazy? Scheffler has finished in the top 3 in 12 of his last 37 events on the PGA Tour. He’s going to be extremely popular, but I will be overweight on the field.