PGA DFS Core Plays: Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
One of the best parts about PGA DFS is the sweat. One of the best parts about the sweat is tracking golfers on the course. It’s not the same without Shot Tracker. We didn’t have it last week, and aren’t going to have it again this week. It was a frustrating week for me, as I had outrights on Max Greyserman (4th) and Carson Young (2nd). My model had Young and Justin Lower as the top point-per-dollar plays of the slate, and I still didn’t manage to cash in my main lineup thanks to Keith Mitchell. It was a week of almosts.
We only have two full-field events left on the schedule in 2024. We have this week’s event in Bermuda and the RSM Classic next week. Believe it or not, there are more golf courses per square mile in Bermuda than anywhere else in the world. It sounds like a place that needs to be on my bucket list of vacation destinations. Port Royal Golf Course is a Par 71 that measures only 6,828 yards. It features a nice mix of holes that are inland and right on the coast. While we won’t have Shot Tracker, it will be beautiful to watch on television.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship (link coming soon)
Given how short the course is, it’s not a surprise that we’ve seen a mix of winners at this event in the past. When looking at DataGolf’s course fit tool, the relative importance of driving distance and driving accuracy are way down here compared to other courses on TOUR. Essentially, this is not a week where off the tee matters all that much. Golfers will need to avoid the hazards and keep it in play off the tee, but it’s tough to gain a bunch of strokes on the field with the driver.
The winning score has ranged from -15 to -24 over the last five editions of this event. The difficulty of the course hinges on the weather. With the course being exposed to the elements, the wind is the main defense. It’s still early in the week, but the current forecast calls for some serious wind all four days of the event. If that holds, we could see the winning score be closer to that -15 number.
In terms of course fit, I’m looking for golfers who are from the second shot in (approach, around the green, and putting). We’ve seen Brendon Todd and Brian Gay win here in the last five years, so clearly you don’t need to be an elite driver of the ball to contend. Golfers that play well on short Par 70 and Par 71 courses make a lot of sense this week.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Field Size:
- 120 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Forecasts
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Port Royal Golf Course
- Location: Southhampton, Bermuda
- Par 71 — 6,828 yards
- Recent winners: Camilo Villegas (-24), Seamus Power (-19), Lucas Herbert (-15), Brian Gay (-15), Brendon Todd (-24)
- Difficulty: 2023 (56th), 2022 (40th), 2021 (17th), 2020 (19th), 2019 (28th)
- Green type: bermuda
- Green size: 8,000 square feet
- Holes with water hazards: 7
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving Accuracy: 60% (TOUR average: 59%)
- - Driving Distance: 289 yards (TOUR average: 293)
- - Greens in Regulation: 72% (TOUR average: 66%)
Event and Course Notes
- Another week with no Shot Tracker, as the PGA TOUR heads to Bermuda
- This is a beautiful course where any type of golfer can contend
- At 6,828 yards, this is one of the shortest courses on TOUR
- Golfers who play well on less-than-driver courses tend to play well here
- Course management is critical; this is not a bomber’s paradise
- Nice mix of holes that are inland and right on the water
- According to DataGolf, driving distance and driving accuracy are less important here than at most venues
- Essentially, this is more of a second shot and in type of course
- With very few trees on the property, the main defense is the wind
- With the course being exposed, keep an eye out for a wave advantage
- Comp courses: Harbour Town, Waialae Country Club, Colonial Country Club
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Bogey avoidance
- Strokes gained putting (emphasis on bermuda)
- Strokes gained around the green
- Strokes gained on less-than-driver courses
Core Plays
Ben Griffin
DraftKings: $9,700 / pOWN%: 24%
FanDuel: $11,300 / pOWN%: 29%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 58
Strokes Gained Approach: 14
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 11
Strokes Gained Putting: 12
Birdie or Better %: 20
Bogey Avoidance: 9
My two core plays for the week are perfect course fits for Port Royal Golf Course. Griffin has been dominant in weak fields and on easy courses over the last couple of seasons. He’s also been dominant on bermudagrass courses and short courses. He’s not elite off the tee, but that’s not needed to contend at this event. In this field, he’s 14th or better in strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green, and strokes gained putting. We don’t have to worry about rust, as he’s played each of the last five events. During that stretch, he’s posted three top 25s. He made the cut in both of his appearances at this event and finished T3 in 2022.
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