PGA DFS Core Plays: Farmers Insurance Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Farmers Insurance Open. Who should you be building your lineups around? Find out below!
I hope everyone enjoyed The American Express last week. I had a lot of hope entering Sunday. My main lineup only had 5 of 6 golfers make the cut (thanks, Rico Hoey), but I had the leader and three other golfers in the top 10 at the start of the day. Unfortunately, things unraveled quickly. And naturally, there was no slowing down Scottie Scheffler. Once he got a sniff of the lead, he never looked back.
We now turn our attention to one of my favorite events of the year — the Farmers Insurance Open. I’ve always found that difficult golf courses are easier to predict, perhaps because my player pool tends to consist of golfers who are excellent ball strikers. The theory is that birdie fests often turn into putting contests (because everyone is hitting greens at a high rate), and putting tends to be the most volatile statistic on a week-to-week basis. I can’t wait to see this field go toe-to-toe with Torrey Pines this week.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament and course notes for the Farmers Insurance Open, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
With limited daylight this time of year, we have another multi-course rotation this week. Luckily, we have two courses and not three. While the North Course and the South Course are both a part of Torrey Pines, there are very few similarities between these courses. The North Course is a Par 72 that measures less than 7,300 yards. It has been one of the easier courses on TOUR over the years, although it played much more difficult last year. The fairways are generous, the greens are large, and the greens feature bentgrass (which is often preferred over poa annua). Golfers will need to take advantage of the North Course, as it provides more scoring opportunities.
The South Course is a behemoth. This was already a tough course, and it was made even tougher before it hosted the U.S. Open. It’s a Par 72 that tops out at nearly 7,800 yards. It’s the longest regular stop on the PGA TOUR. Despite the length, the course has narrow fairways (28 yards wide) and small greens (5,000 square feet). If that wasn’t enough, the course features thick rough and tough-to-read greens. The poa annua surfaces often get bumpy, especially in the afternoon. Golfers hit their driver on nearly 80% of tee shots here last year, so it’s one of the most driver-heavy courses on TOUR. Additionally, driving distance matters more here than at almost any other course golfers will play all year.
Course fit is pretty simple this week. Golfers need to either be bombers or be elite with their long irons. You can get away with a lack of distance off the tee, but only if you are hitting fairways and hitting good approach shots with your long irons. Preferably, we want golfers near the top in Driving Distance. I’m also looking at Bogey Avoidance, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and course history. For comp courses, I’m looking at other Par 72 (or long Par 70/71) courses that have very difficult scoring conditions.
Top PGA DFS Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel for the Farmers Insurance Open
Core Plays
Hideki Matsuyama
DraftKings: $9,300 / pOWN%: 16%
FanDuel: $10,700 / pOWN%: 19%
Course History L5 Years: 32 (2025), 13 (2024), 9 (2023), 30 (2022), 53 (2021)
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 97
Strokes Gained: Approach: 14
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 2
Strokes Gained: Putting: 86
I don’t have a strong opinion on the most expensive golfers in the field this week, and I don’t have a ton of interest in the $6,000 range on DraftKings. I like the balanced builds for DFS. My favorite spend is Matsuyama, who is one of the best in the world when it comes to tee to green play. The tougher the course, the more important tee to green becomes. His driver has been a little wild at times, but he’s elite on approach and elite around the green. He won the Hero World Challenge in December and finished T13 at his first event this year (Sony Open). He’s made 9 straight cuts at this event with 4 top-15 finishes during that stretch.
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