PGA DFS Core Plays: FedEx St. Jude Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
The Wyndham Championship had a little bit of everything. The hurricane pushed the start of the tournament back to Friday, yet the PGA TOUR still finished the event on Sunday. Well, technically, Matt Kuchar didn’t let the tournament officially conclude until Monday, but we were able to crown a winner on Sunday evening. You have to feel for Max Greyserman, who really struggled on the back nine with a big lead. He put an 8 on the scorecard and then four-putted two holes later. Aaron Rai chased him down to claim his first PGA TOUR victory. While I’m kicking myself for not including him on the betting card, he was a core play in this article and a staple in my DFS lineups.
We now turn our attention to the first event of the FedExCup Playoffs. If you aren’t familiar with the format, the top 70 in the FedExCup Standings will tee it up this week in Memphis. After the event, the top 50 in the standings will move on to play the BMW Championship. After that event, the top 30 in the standings will move on to play the TOUR Championship. Plenty of exemptions and a ton of money are up for grabs over the next few weeks. We should assume that everyone in the field is very motivated to play their best golf.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the FedEx St. Jude Championship
TPC Southwind is a Par 70 that measures 7,243 yards. The winning score here has been between -13 and -16 in each of the last five years to give you an idea of the expected scoring this week. The course isn’t overly difficult, but trouble is lurking everywhere. Water hazards are featured on 11 of the 18 holes. There are as many penalty strokes here as nearly any course on the PGA TOUR. The presence of so many hazards leads to more variance, which is why you’ll see such inconsistent course history for most of the field.
The fairways at this course are narrow (29 yards wide) and difficult to hit on average. The greens here are small (4,300 square feet) and tough to hit in regulation. This helps us narrow down our player pool, as we know accuracy off the tee and precision iron play is needed around this course. The low greens in regulation rate increases the importance of scrambling, as there will be more up-and-down opportunities than most weeks. I’ll also note we’ve seen several poor putters win and contend here over the years (Will Zalatoris, Lucas Glover, Justin Thomas, etc.).
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the FedEx St. Jude Championship
Field Size:
- 70 golfers
Cut Rule:
- No cut this week
Weather Forecasts
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TPC Southwind
- Location: Memphis, Tennessee
- Par 70 — 7,243 yards
- Recent winners: Lucas Glover (-15), Will Zalatoris (-15), Abraham Ancer (-16), Justin Thomas (-13), Brooks Koepka (-16)
- Difficulty: 2023 (37th), 2022 (30th), 2021 (32nd), 2020 (14th), 2019 (24th)
- Green type: bermudagrass
- Green size: 4,300 square feet
- Fairway width: 29 yards
- Missed fairway penalty: medium/high
- Holes with water hazards: 11
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving accuracy: 58% (TOUR average: 58%)
- - Driving distance: 293 yards (TOUR average: 292)
- - Greens in regulation: 64% (TOUR average: 64%)
- 2023 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-75 yards: 2%
- - 75-100 yards: 5%
- - 100-125 yards: 13%
- - 125-150 yards: 24%
- - 150-175 yards: 18%
- - 175-200 yards: 10%
- - 200-225 yards: 5%
- - 225+ yards: 5%
Event and Course Notes
- First playoff event, which means there are only 70 golfers in the field and no cut
- The top 50 in the FedExCup Standings after this week will play in the BMW Championship
- TPC Southwind is a long par 70 that measures 7,243 yards
- The course is pretty average in terms of difficulty; the winning score is usually between -13 and -17
- High water danger this week, as water is in play on 11 of the 18 holes
- The fairways here are narrow and tough to hit on average
- The greens here are extremely small and difficult to hit on average
- Due to the setup, driving accuracy, approach play, and scrambling are the keys to success
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Bogey avoidance
- Total driving
- Strokes gained around the green
- Strokes gained on par 70 courses with high water danger
- Strokes gained in strong fields
- Strokes gained on courses with small greens
Core Plays
Collin Morikawa
DraftKings: $10,000 / pOWN%: 17%
FanDuel: $11,800 / pOWN%: 18%
Total Driving: 16
Strokes Gained Approach: 10
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 12
Strokes Gained Putting: 39
Birdie or Better %: 12
Bogey Avoidance: 6
Even though he doesn’t have a win on his resume this year, Morikawa has had one of his most consistent seasons on the PGA TOUR. Prior to finishing T24 at the games in Paris, he posted 10 straight top 16 finishes. He’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball, he’s long been one of the best iron players on TOUR, and he is quietly having a breakout season with his short game. He has gained strokes around the green in six straight events and has gained strokes on the green in five straight events. He’s a perfect fit for TPC Southwind, which is all about accuracy and avoiding the hazards. He’s played here four times and has never finished worse than T26. After the season he’s had, don’t be surprised if he picks up a win in the playoffs.
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