PGA DFS Core Plays: FedEx St. Jude Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the FedEx St. Jude Championship
And just like that, we have arrived at the FedExCup Playoffs. It’s hard to believe all 4 of this year’s majors are already in the rearview mirror, but we still have some fun events coming up in the next couple of months. We have the 3 playoff events and soon after the Ryder Cup. The format of the FedEx Cup has undergone significant changes over the years. It’s now a 3-event stretch that starts with only 70 golfers. The top 50 in the rankings after this week will move on to play the BMW Championship, and the top 30 in the rankings after that will move on to play the TOUR Championship. And if you haven’t heard, the PGA TOUR has eliminated starting strokes for the final event. Hallelujah!
The first playoff event is the FedEx St. Jude Championship, which is held at TPC Southwind. This course is a Par 70 that measures 7,288 yards. This Par 70 is different than most that we see on the PGA TOUR. It’s quite long when you adjust for par, and golfers hit a ton of drivers here. In 2024, golfers hit driver on 82% of tee shots, which was one of the highest marks at any course on TOUR last year. Essentially, driving matters a lot more than you might expect when you think of a Par 70 course.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament and course notes for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
The greens at TPC Southwind are small (4,500 square feet) and difficult to hit on average (63% greens in regulation rate in 2024). While this is a long course on paper, around 55% of approach shots will be hit from 100-175 yards. There aren’t a ton of long iron approach shots at this venue, especially for the longer drivers of the ball. While it’s important to be able to get up and down when golfers miss greens, the scrambling success rate here is typically well above TOUR average.
Given the fact that Will Zalatoris and Lucas Glover have won here recently, it’s pretty obvious that this is a good course for below-average putters. I much prefer strong tee-to-green golfers over strong putters this week. I should also note that there won’t be a cut this week, as there are only 69 golfers in the field. This increases the importance of upside and birdie-making from each golfer in your lineup. With ownership being more concentrated overall, it’s also a good week to leave salary on the table.
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Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DraftKings: $13,000 / pOWN%: 28%
FanDuel: $13,400 / pOWN%: 44%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 2
Strokes Gained Approach: 1
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 10
Strokes Gained Putting: 6
Birdie or Better %: 1
Bogey Avoidance: 1
I don’t mind fading Scheffler now and then, but this is not one of those weeks. The other options in the $10,000+ range aren’t all that appealing, and Scheffler is putting together yet another incredible season. He picked up another major in his last start and is now one short of the career grand slam. He’s also finished in the top 8 in 11 straight events. Over the last 6 months, he’s top 10 in this field in all 4 of the strokes gained categories. His elite tee-to-green prowess is now accompanied by very good putting. He hasn’t won this event yet, but he did finish T4 here last year.
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