PGA DFS Core Plays: John Deere Classic
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Even though this is a weaker field and most fans and players have their attention on the upcoming Open Championship, the John Deere Classic is an event that I actually look forward to every year. While I am typically not a huge fan of birdie-fests, this is an event that has treated me well over the years. The field would have been better had Patrick Cantlay and Cam Davis not withdrawn, but we still have some decent names in Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, and Sungjae Im.
TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that measures nearly 7,300 yards. The winning score has been at least 21-under par in four of the last five years. During that stretch, this has played as one of the easiest 12 courses on tour every year. The fairways are wide (35 yards) and easy to hit (64% driving accuracy last year). While bombers can have success here, driving distance certainly isn’t a prerequisite for success (just ask Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson). This is an event where bombers and plodders can contend.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the John Deere Classic
The greens here are small in size (5,500 square feet) but very easy to hit (72% greens in regulation last year). This typically makes two statistics in particular more important than usual — strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting. When everyone is hitting greens at a high clip, it often becomes more about who can hit it closer to the pin and who can make putts. Based on last year’s data, we can expect around 45% of approach shots to be hit from less than 150 yards. Being dialed in with wedges is a must for this event.
While making birdies in low-scoring events is important, bogey avoidance has actually been a better predictor for success at this event. Perhaps it’s the fact that there are so many wedge shots and easy par fives that everyone in the field is going to be making birdies. It often comes down to who can avoid the mistakes. A bogey on this course feels almost like a double bogey at most venues. I’m focusing most of my attention on total driving, strokes gained approach, strokes gained putting, and bogey avoidance.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the John Deere Classic
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Forecasts
TPC Deere Run
- Location: Silvis, Illinois
- Par 71 — 7,289 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (38th), 2022 (34th), 2021 (41st), 2019 (35th), 2018 (46th)
- Recent winners: Sepp Straka (-21), J.T. Poston (-21), Lucas Glover (-19), Dylan Frittelli (-21), Michael Kim (-27)
- Number of holes with water hazards: 3
- Green type: bentgrass
- Green size: 5,500 square feet
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Fairway width: 35 yards
- - Driving accuracy: 64%
- - Driving distance: 297 yards
- - Greens in regulation: 72%
- 2023 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-100 yards: 10%
- - 100-125 yards: 14%
- - 125-150 yards: 20%
- - 150-175 yards: 19%
- - 175-200 yards: 12%
- - 200+ yards: 25%
Event and Course Notes
- Much like last week, this is one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR
- Winning score has been at least -19 in each of the last 5 years
- Fairways and greens are both easy to hit on average
- The name of the game is total driving, good iron play, and a hot putter
- Not the most predictive course history, but we’ve seen plenty of multi-time winners
- Lot of wedges this week; 45% of approach shots are less than 150 yards
- No strong course fit; bombers and plodders can contend here
- While making birdies is a necessity, avoiding bogeys is just as important
What to Look For
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogey avoidance
- Total driving
- Strokes Gained: Putting (emphasis on bentgrass)
- Strokes Gained on easy and very easy courses (Rabbit Hole filter)
Core Plays
Maverick McNealy
DraftKings: $9,800 / pOWN%: 24%
FanDuel: $11,400 / pOWN%: 21%
Total Driving: 24
Strokes Gained Approach: 63
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 4
Strokes Gained Putting: 18
Birdie or Better %: 2
Bogey Avoidance: 8
McNealy was a disappointment last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but at least he battled back and made the cut after a slow start on Thursday. He’s reeled off 13 straight made cuts with three top 10 finishes during that stretch. He’s solid off the tee, he’s elite around the greens, and he’s top 20 in this field in putting. The iron play has been hit or miss this year, but he has gained at least 1.6 strokes on approach in four of his last six events. He’s a perfect 3-for-3 at this event, with finishes of T8 and T18 in his last two appearances. He rates out as the 2nd-best play in my model, yet he’s the 5th-most expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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