PGA DFS Core Plays: John Deere Classic
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the John Deere Classic
We go from one birdie fest in the Rocket Classic to another in the John Deere Classic. This event routinely plays as one of the easiest on TOUR, but it’s actually one of my favorite birdie fests each year. Perhaps in another life I was really into tractors. Or perhaps I’ve had a little more success at this event than I have at the other birdie fests. Whatever the reason, I’m excited for this week. And then we have the Scottish Open and The Open Championship to look forward the next two weeks.
TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that measures 7,289 yards. We’ve had an eclectic group of winners here over the years. The event used to be dominated by Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker, but we’ve seen several bombers win here over the last 10 years. A large part of that has to do with the way the game has changed. Golfers want to hit driver as often as possible, and that’s evidenced by the fact that the field hit driver on 73% of tee shots at this event last year.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament and course notes for the John Deere Classic, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
With this being a driver-heavy course, I certainly don’t mind looking heavily at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Driving Distance isn’t a prerequisite for success here, but being able to gain strokes off the tee is essential. Despite the greens being small (5,500 square feet), they are easy to hit in regulation. This places an emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting. It also de-emphasizes around-the-green play. When everyone is hitting greens, we don’t want to rely on scramblers anyway.
We don’t need to complicate our process this week. I’m focusing on golfers who are solid off the tee, good with wedges, and good on the greens. If you are looking for specific filters in the Rabbit Hole, I’m looking at three in particular: Strokes Gained on Easy and Very Easy Courses, Strokes Gained on Driver-Heavy Courses, and Strokes Gained on courses where it’s easy to gain strokes off the tee and on approach.
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Core Plays
Ben Griffin
DraftKings: $10,400 / pOWN%: 36%
FanDuel: $12,200 / pOWN%: 31%
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee: 32
Strokes Gained: Approach: 10
Strokes Gained: Around the Green: 33
Strokes Gained: Putting: 24
Birdie or Better %: 25
Bogey Avoidance: 7
I’ve been a Griffin truther for quite some time, so it’s been amazing watching him put together so many high-end finishes. After winning the team event, he went on to win the Charles Schwab Challenge. In his last 6 events, he hasn’t finished outside of the top 15. It’s not like he’s only playing weak fields either, as 2 of those finishes were at the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship. He’s always been an elite putter, and right now, he’s gaining strokes in every facet of his game. He should keep it going this week at a course where he finished T5 last year.
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