PGA DFS Core Plays: Memorial Tournament
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
The next two weeks might be the best two-week stretch of the entire season. We get a Signature Event at Jack’s Place and then the U.S. Open. For the golfers, this might be the toughest two-week stretch all year. The Jack-Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village Golf Club is a Par 72 that stretches up to 7,569 yards. Since the renovation in 2020, this has played as the 5th, 8th, and 10th most difficult course on the PGA TOUR. After reading the rest of this introduction, you’ll see why the course is so difficult.
The fairways at Muirfield Village are narrow (30 yards wide) and tree-lined. If you miss the fairway, you will be dealing with 4” thick rough that is extremely difficult to play out of. The greens here are small (5,000 square feet), the bunkers are challenging, and water is in play on 13 of the 18 holes. In 2023, golfers only hit 57% of fairways and 52% of greens in regulation. This is one of the few courses on TOUR that tests all aspects of a golfer’s game.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Memorial Tournament
Like most Nicklaus designs, this is more of a second-shot golf course. This doesn’t mean driving the ball well isn’t important, but I wouldn’t call this a bomber’s course. Unless we get a lot of rain, this is going to be a firm and fast golf course. Playing from the fairway is going to be a huge advantage, especially hitting into these small greens. For that reason, I prefer total driving or strokes gained off the tee when it comes to driving metrics this week.
The greens are also contoured, so accurate approach shots will be needed to score around here. With golfers likely to hit less than 60% of greens in regulation, there will be plenty of scrambling opportunities. While strokes gained around the green is important, I’ll note that this course doesn’t provide many tricky tight-lie situations. It’s more about hacking it out of the thick rough. If there is one strokes gained metric that I’m willing to overlook this week, it’s putting. Generally, the tougher the course, the more important tee-to-green play becomes. We’ve seen that play out at this event over the years. I mean, Scottie Scheffler was one shot shy of the playoff last year, and he lost 8.5 strokes putting.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Memorial Tournament
Field Size:
- 73 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 50 and ties + anyone within 10 strokes of the lead
Weather Forecasts
- Roth’s Forecast (link coming soon)
- Windfinder
- Accuweather
Muirfield Village Golf Club
- Location: Dublin, Ohio
- Par 72 — 7,569 yards
- Designer: Jack Nicklaus
- Difficulty: 2023 (5th), 2022 (8th), 2020 (10th)
- Recent winners: Viktor Hovland (-7), Billy Horschel (-13), Patrick Cantlay (-13), Jon Rahm (-9), Patrick Cantlay (-19)
- Number of holes with water hazards: 13
- Green type: bentgrass
- Green size: 5,000 square feet
- Rough: 4” Kentucky bluegrass with rye and fescue
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Fairway width: 31 yards
- - Driving accuracy: 57%
- - Driving distance: 293 yards
- - Greens in regulation: 52%
- 2023 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-100 yards: 7%
- - 100-125 yards: 11%
- - 125-150 yards: 15%
- - 150-175 yards: 17%
- - 175-200 yards: 18%
- - 200+ yards: 32%
Event and Course Notes
- One of the toughest regular venues on the PGA TOUR rotation
- This course will expose any weakness in a golfer’s game
- Tree-lined fairways, thick rough, difficult bunkering, small greens, water on 13 holes
- The tougher the course, the more important tee to green becomes
- Good ball strikers and scramblers have had a lot of success here
- Personally, I view putting as the least important of the four SG categories this week
- Driving is important, but the shorter hitters are firmly in play if accurate
- As with all Nicklaus designs, approach play will be the biggest factor
- If the weather cooperates, the course should play firm and fast
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Total driving
- Strokes gained around the green
- Bogey avoidance
- Success on long and difficult courses
Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DraftKings: $12,500 / pOWN%: 31%
FanDuel: $14,000 / pOWN%: TBD
Total Driving: 1
Strokes Gained Approach: 1
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 2
Strokes Gained Putting: 38
Birdie or Better %: 1
Bogey Avoidance: 1
For like four months straight, I was actively telling anyone and everyone to play Scheffler until he gave us a reason not to. It worked like a charm. Then he got arrested and had a baby, and I strayed from the path. I started looking for reasons he might play bad. It doesn’t seem to matter what the universe throws at this guy, he’s going to show up and play great golf. He’s rattled off 10 straight top-10s, with 4 wins and 2 runner-up finishes, and hasn’t finished worse than T31 since October of 2022. He’s finished 3rd at this event in each of his last two appearances and did it last year while losing 8.5 strokes putting. That clearly doesn’t seem to be an issue anymore, as he’s gained strokes putting in 7 of his last 9 events. The price isn’t as prohibitive as usual, so I will gladly be overweight on Scheffler in all formats.
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