PGA DFS Core Plays: Mexico Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Mexico Open
I hope everyone had a good week at the Zurich Classic. I talked about the increased variance given the team event and the different format each round and yet, I somehow had my best DFS week of the year for PGA. I only made one lineup and it finished fifth in the $555 tournament on DraftKings. Let’s hope that’s a sign of things to come. I felt like there were more hits than misses, although it would have been nice to get an outright bet across the finish line. The Moore/NeSmith and Hadwin/Taylor teams both finished in the top five after being in contention all day on Sunday.
We now turn our attention to the Mexico Open and even though we have a full field, Shot Tracker, and a cut, I have heard nothing but complaints from content producers around the industry. I know this isn’t a designated event, but let’s at least give it a chance. We saw how great the Honda Classic was back in February. All we need are some big names or some good storylines to pay attention to on Sunday. Honestly, all I need is a sweat with my DFS lineups and/or my bets and I will be glued to my television for the final round.
The Mexico Open will be held at Vidanta Vallarta for the second straight year. We don’t have a lot of data to work with, but the course certainly favored bombers last season. The fairways are wide, there wasn’t much of a penalty when it came to playing from the rough last year, and we saw everyone bring out drivers on most of the holes. The course is a Par 71 that measures 7,456 yards, so it certainly has plenty of length (especially when you consider the fact that there are five par threes). Given what we know about the course and the leaderboard that we saw last season, I’m placing a bigger emphasis on driving distance than I have at any other event this season.
The difficult was right around tour average last season, but it was fairly windy throughout the week. Based on the forecast this week, we should have some excellent scoring conditions. It can always change, but we don’t have a single day with wind gusts more than 9 MPH. Despite the length of the course, we could see an absolute birdie-fest. One interesting note from last season is that more than 80% of approach shots were hit from at least 150 yards with 40% of approach shots hit from at least 200 yards.
Even the longest hitters in the field are going to have a lot of mid and long irons into greens. I am not completely crossing off golfers that are short off the tee, but they better be good with their long irons. A player like Chez Reavie comes to mind. He doesn’t have the distance, but he makes up for it with his proximity with his long irons. Given the forecast and the fact that greens were easy to hit last year, I’m not putting much stock into around the green numbers.
Model Video & Download Link for the Mexico Open
Field Size:
- 144 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
Golf Course
- Norman Signature Course at Vidanta Vallarta
- Location: Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
- Designer: Greg Norman
- Par 71 — 7,456 yards
- Difficulty: 24th (2022)
- Wide fairways
- Paspalum greens
Course Notes
- Course is only accessible by world’s longest golf cart suspension bridge
- Could see better scoring this year, as early forecast calls for less wind
- Friendly to bombers with wide fairways and lengthy holes
- Lot of mid and long irons hit here (150-225 yards)
- Greens are fairly easy to hit, scrambling isn’t overly difficult
Skill Sets to Target
- Strokes gained off the tee (emphasis on distance)
- Strokes gained approach
- Birdie or Better %
- Experience on paspalum grass
Core Plays
Jon Rahm
DK: $12,000 — FD: $12,600
SG: OTT — 4
Driving Distance — 7
SG: APP — 2
Birdie or Better % — 1
SG: Putting — 5
Noto’s Rating — 98.9