PGA DFS Core Plays: PGA Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
My friends, it is a great week. The year’s second major is upon us. The PGA Championship used to feel like the little brother compared to the other major championships, but that’s no longer the case. The PGA of America has turned it into more of a U.S. Open style of test, and it is no longer the last major of the year, so it’s one that everyone looks forward to. We’ve had some great finishes and some great golf courses at this event over the last five years. Let’s hope we get that again in 2024.
We have no shortage of storylines this week. Scottie Scheffler is teeing it up for the first time since the birth of his first child, Rory McIlroy is looking for his third win in a row and looking to win another major at this venue, Brooks Koepka is looking to win the same major in back-to-back years for the third time in his career, Jordan Spieth is looking to complete the grand slam, Tiger Woods is back in action for the first time since the Masters, and Michael Block (BLOCKIE!!) is back in our lives.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the PGA Championship (link will be posted shortly)
This year’s PGA Championship will be held at Valhalla Golf Club. The last time it was held here was in 2014 when Rory McIlroy won. The course has gone through some significant changes over the last 10 years. The course has been lengthened to over 7,600 yards and the fairways are no longer bentgrass. They are now zoysiagrass, which dries out quicker and plays firmer. The course is a Par 71 that features three Par 5s, four long Par 3s, and some daunting Par 4s. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus and is located in Louisville, Kentucky. Based on what we saw in 2014, the video fly-overs of the course, and player interviews, this course should provide a tremendous test of golf.
Given the length of the course, driving distance could play a critical role this week. There will be a few short hitters that linger on the leaderboard, but it’s hard to imagine the winner not having significant power off the tee. The course is extremely long, the rough is extremely thick (4”), and we currently have rain in the forecast. If the course is a little softer, it will only play longer than the number on the scorecard. In addition to distance off the tee, I’m focusing on long-iron play, scrambling, and bogey avoidance. The three comps that I am using this week (which can be found in my downloadable model) are strokes gained at majors, strokes gained in strong fields, and strokes gained on long and difficult courses.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the PGA Championship
Field Size:
- 154 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 70 and ties
Weather Forecasts
Valhalla Golf Club
- Location: Louisville, Kentucky
- Designer: Jack Nicklaus
- Par 71 — 7,609 yards
- Recent winners: Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, Collin Morikawa
- Last time the PGA Championship was here was 2014 when Rory McIlroy won
- Number of holes with water hazards: 7
- Green type: bentgrass
- Fairway type: zoysiagrass
- Green size: 5,000 square feet
Event and Course Notes
- The year’s 2nd major is here and it should be a fun one
- All of the world’s best are finally back together at an incredible golf course
- As usual at the PGA Championship, we have a very long course this week
- There are only three Par 5s, and the course is still over 7,600 yards
- Six of the Par 4s measure over 470 yards, all of the Par 3s are over 190 yards
- We’ll see some shorter hitters on the leaderboard, but I expect distance to rule the day
- Greens here are small and are expected to be around 13 on the stimp (very fast)
- Fairways are now zoysiagrass, while the rough is 4” with fescue and bentgrass
- This should be a solid all-around test of golf, as are most major championships
What to Look For
- Strokes gained off the tee
- Strokes gained approach
- Driving distance
- Bogey avoidance
- Experience in majors
- Experience on long and difficult courses
- Experience in strong fields
Core Plays
Brooks Koepka
DraftKings: $10,800 / pOWN%: 15%
FanDuel: $11,600 / pOWN%: 14%
Driving Distance: 42
Strokes Gained Approach: 24
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 99
Strokes Gained Putting: 3
Birdie or Better %: 108
Bogey Avoidance: 125
Most will be starting their lineups with Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy. I see the board a bit differently. My favorite play of the week is Koepka. Throughout his career, he has played his best golf in the majors. When he wins the world’s biggest events, he typically comes into the week off a strong finish. The last time he teed it up was two weeks ago when he won the LIV Singapore event. He’s also successfully defended his major championships the first two times around (he won the 2017 and 2018 U.S. Opens and the 2018 and 2019 PGA Championships). He has a chance to accomplish that feat for a third time with a win this week. He’s a bomber off the tee, he’s an elite iron player, and he’s one of the most clutch putters that we have seen over the last 10 years. Some golfers are built for majors.
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