PGA DFS Core Plays: RBC Canadian Open

Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.

The Memorial Tournament provided a great finish and I thought we were on the ball in terms of the picks. Between the core plays and the conviction plays, seven of the eight picks finished in the top 30 and four of the picks finished in the top 10. We didn’t hit an outright with the golf bets, but did cash two of the three placement parlays for another profitable week. The only negative last week was having no exposure to Viktor Hovland on my main lineup or on the betting card. However, I was happy to see him pick up his biggest win to date. By all accounts, he seems like an awesome person. He even caddied for his former college teammate on Monday at the U.S. Open qualifier.

We now turn our attention to the RBC Canadian Open. This is the week before the U.S. Open and most of the final qualifiers for the major took place on Monday afternoon. This is why we are already seeing a number of withdrawals from the RBC Canadian Open. A few that managed to qualify for the U.S. Open have decided to skip this event and prep for the bigger event next week. if you were planning to roster Luke List, Sam Stevens, Sam Ryder, or Byeong Hun An this week, you’ll have to make other arrangements.

Oakdale Golf and Country Club is going to host the event this year and anytime we have a first time course, it’s always a guessing game on how it will play. The last four Canadian Opens had winning scores of at least 19-under par and based on early reports about this course, that trend should continue this week. Oakdale has three different nine-hole courses and they will use a combination of all three for this event. The scorecard reads as a Par 72 that measures 7,264 yards. Unlike most Par 72 courses that we see on tour, this one only features three par fives and three par threes.

This course is short by PGA Tour standards and the only real defense on paper is the thick rough. We are expecting 4-to-5 inches of rough this week, which is some of the longest that we’ll see on tour all season. However, the lack of length will lead to many clubbing down off the tee in order to prioritize hitting fairways. At least, that’s what I am assuming. There’s always the chance a few of the longer hitters try to get aggressive off the tee and try to drive a few of these greens. Regardless, most birdie-fests come down to who can hit their irons the best and who can hole the most putts.

The greens themselves are undulating and aren’t overly large (6,000 square feet on average). For the fifth straight week, golfers will be putting on bentgrass greens (although there’s about 20% poa annua in the mix as well). Given the fact that we are all guessing how the course is going to play, I don’t mind pairing together similar skill sets this week — making one lineup full of bombers, making one lineup full of accuracy players, making one lineup full of elite putters, etc. I plan to read as many player quotes as possible this week, so I might include an update here on Wednesday if my thoughts change at all.

PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the RBC Canadian Open

Field Breakdown Video & Model Download Link for the RBC Canadian Open

Field Size:

• 156 golfers

Cut Rule:

• Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds

Weather Forecasts

• Kevin Roth’s forecast
• Windfinder
• Weather Channel

Golf Course

• Oakdale Golf and Country Club
• Location: Toronto, Canada
• Last four winners of Candian Open: -19, -22, -23, -21
• Par 72 — 7,264 yards
• Unique Par 72 layout with only three par fives and three par threes
• Green type : bentgrass 80% / poa annua 20%
• Green size: 6,000 square feet on average
• Rough length: 4-5 inches

Course Notes

• First time we’ve seen this course on tour, so we don’t have any course history
• The fairways are tree-lined and undulating
• Given the length of the course and thickness of rough, accuracy should be a premium
• All three par fives should provide scoring opportunities — 590, 553, and 498 yards
• We typically see this event turn into a birdie-fest, so I’m expecting at least 20-under to win

What to Look For

• Strokes Gained Approach
• Total Driving
• Birdie or Better %
• Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bent/Poa)

Core Plays

Tyrrell Hatton

DK: $10,200 — FD: $11,800

Total Driving — 12
SG: APP — 15
BOB% — 4
SG: ATG — 28
SG: Putting (Bent) — 11
Noto’s Rating — 93.1

The scare with starting lineups with Hatton is that McIlroy runs away with this event for the second year in a row. However, Hatton has been more consistent and is significantly cheaper on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s rattled off five straight top 20s and has finished in the top six in five of his last 11 starts. He has gained off the tee in 11 straight events, the irons have been dialed in, and his short game is well above tour average. He doesn’t have a weakness right now, so he should be a nice course fit regardless of how Oakdale ends up playing.

Justin Rose

DK: $9,700 — FD: $11,100

Total Driving — 25
SG: APP — 5
BOB% — 3
SG: ATG — 48
SG: Putting (Bent) — 7
Noto’s Rating — 90.3

Rose has been up and down over the last few years, but has really found some consistency in his game this season. He won at Pebble Beach earlier in the year and has rattled off four straight top 25 finishes. I was tempted to put Tommy Fleetwood here and I still like him in DFS, but one golfer has 11 PGA Tour wins and the other is still looking for his first. I like the upside from Rose a little bit more. Rose is fifth in this field in strokes gained approach, third in birdie or better percentage, and seventh in strokes gained putting on bentgrass. He’s also become a much more accurate driver of the ball recently, which should help given the thick rough in play this week.

Conviction Plays

Matt Kuchar

DK: $9,100 — FD: $9,900

Total Driving — 97
SG: APP — 51
BOB% — 48
SG: ATG — 4
SG: Putting (Bent) — 23
Noto’s Rating — 78.5

Many will Kuchar’s missed cut at the PGA Championship and the fact that he lost 8.5 strokes tee to green last week and get scared off of him at this price point. I don’t know about you, but I was not expecting Kuchar to contend at the likes of Oak Hill and Muirfield Village. He has long been at his best on shorter courses and on easy courses. Oakdale is very short by PGA Tour standards and I’m personally expecting the winning score to be in the 20-under range. Prior to the last two events, Kuchar was playing great and gaining strokes in all areas of the game. Given the weak field and easy course, I like Kuchar’s chances to surprise some people this week.

Brendon Todd

DK: $7,900 — FD: $9,500

Total Driving — 84
SG: APP — 60
BOB% — 15
SG: ATG — 5
SG: Putting (Bent) — 1
Noto’s Rating — 74.2

The Todd Father withdrew after a bad first round last week, but I’m not overly concerned. We are hearing that you want to keep it in the fairway this week and there are few that are more accurate off the tee than Todd. He’s one of the best in the field around the green and he’s the best putter in the field on bentgrass greens. The irons can be hit or miss at times, but he has gained strokes on approach in five of his last seven events. If this turns into a putting contest, we have to like Todd’s chances. Much like Kuchar, he tends to play his best on short courses and on easy courses.

Mark Hubbard

DK: $7,300 — FD: $9,100

Total Driving — 118
SG: APP — 4
BOB% — 50
SG: ATG — 56
SG: Putting (Bent) — 41
Noto’s Rating — 74.2

Hubbard was in contention last week for about 45 holes. He eventually fell back late Saturday and had a bad round on Sunday, but it was another solid finish. He has now finished T30 or better in five of his last six starts and has gained over 24 strokes on approach during that stretch. He has a good short game and his game seems to be trending in the right direction. If he drives the ball well, I like his chances to be in the mix on the weekend for the a second straight week.

Nate Lashley

DK: $7,300 — FD: $8,900

Total Driving — 63
SG: APP — 25
BOB% — 35
SG: ATG — 70
SG: Putting (Bent) — 88
Noto’s Rating — 67.0

Lashley missed the cut his last time out, but his game has been trending in the right direction. He has gained at least two strokes on approach in four of his last seven starts, his around the green game has improved this season, and he has gained strokes putting in five straight events. He isn’t great off the tee, but that’s more due to a lack of distance than a lack of accuracy. As long as he can keep it in the fairway, he’ll give himself a good chance to finish in the top 20.

Aaron Baddeley

DK: $7,200 — FD: $8,400

Total Driving — 146
SG: APP — 37
BOB% — 66
SG: ATG — 15
SG: Putting (Bent) — 13
Noto’s Rating — 64.5

Look at that lettuce! As someone that is deficient in the hair growing department, I have to admire those long locks. Hair aside, he has quietly made six straight cuts and has posted back-to-back top 25s. You would think someone that relies on his short game so much would be better on tough courses, but that’s not the case for Baddeley. He’s actually been much better on easier courses throughout his career. He has gained 6.1 strokes on approach in his last two starts, so he might have found something with his irons. This is a play that is certain to get overlooked and I like his upside if he can have one decent week off the tee.

PGA Betting Card

To compare odds across sportsbooks, check out the ScoresAndOdds golf page.

Last week: +6.6 units

Season total: +15.2 units

This week: 8.5 units in play

I always provide my weekly golf picks to the RG Premium members, but we would love to have you check all of the sports betting content at ScoresAndOdds.

Here are the golf bets that we’ve hit over the last six weeks:

• Wyndham Clark +7500 ✅
• Jason Day +2100 ✅
• Brooks Koepka +2200 ✅
• Three top 40 parlays ✅
• One placement parlay ✅

RBC Canadian Open

• Tyrrell Hatton +1200 (1.25 units DraftKings)
• Justin Rose +1800 (FanDuel)
• Matt Kuchar +4500 (Caesars)
• Eric Cole +7500 (0.75 units Caesars)
• Michael Kim +10000 (0.5 units Caesars)
• Brendon Todd +10000 (0.5 units Caesars)
• Mark Hubbard +15000 (0.5 units PointsBet)

Placement Parlays

• Top 40 Parlay: Eric Cole, Mark Hubbard, Michael Kim +890 (FanDuel)
• Top 40 Parlay: Nate Lashley, Aaron Baddeley +625 (FanDuel)
• Justin Rose top 20, Tommy Fleetwood top 40, Matt Kuchar top 40, Brendon Todd top 40 +840 (FanDuel)

Note: When it comes to units, betting on golf is a bit different than betting on other sports. For instance, what I bet on an outright in golf is smaller than what I would bet on an NBA or MLB game. However, to keep it simple for tracking purposes, each golf bet posted will be for one unit unless stated otherwise.

Image Credit: Getty Images

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