PGA DFS Core Plays: Rocket Mortgage Classic
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
The last 3 weeks have featured some of the best fields we have seen all year. We had a Signature Event at Muirfield Village, the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, and another Signature Event at TPC River Highlands. Naturally, this week feels like a bit of a letdown. We have a weaker field and one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR rotation. If we have learned anything over the years, it’s that DFS players aren’t as focused and engaged for these types of events. Many will still play, but they won’t put in the same level of effort that they would for a big event. This provides us an opportunity to beat the field.
Now, let’s talk about Detroit Golf Club. It’s a Donald Ross design that measures 7,370 yards. It’s a par 72, and at least three of the four par 5s will be reachable by almost everyone in the field. On top of that, several short par 4s will be easy to birdie with a good drive. We’ve seen this play as one of the 10 easiest courses in each of the last 5 years. During that stretch, the average winning score here has been -23. Reports are that the course is already playing soft and the forecast could bring in even more rain, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the winning score ended up being close to -30.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
The fairways here are already wide (36 yards on average) and have been easy to hit over the years. If the course is as soft as interviews are making it sound, the fairways will play even wider given the lack of rollout on drives. This has always been a driver-heavy course, which naturally favors the longer hitters. The course has been short enough in the past that you don’t have to be a bomber, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. If it plays a little longer due to the conditions, it will favor the bombers even more this week.
The greens at Detroit Golf Club are small in size and contoured, yet they are still easy to hit. In 2023, we saw the field hit 73% of these greens in regulation. In my estimation, this lowers the importance of around-the-green play and increases the importance of putting. We often see these birdie fests turn into putting contests. If the winning score is at least -25, it will be tough to contend if you aren’t gaining strokes on the greens.
I’m keeping it simple this week — I’m looking for long hitters, good iron players, and good putters. It’s not a terrible idea to focus solely on birdie makers.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Forecasts
Detroit Golf Club
- Location: Detroit, Michigan
- Designer: Donald Ross
- Par 72 — 7,370 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (43rd), 2022 (38th), 2021 (40th), 2020 (38th), 2019 (42nd)
- Recent winners: Rickie Fowler (-24), Tony Finau (-26), Cam Davis (-18), Bryson DeChambeau (-23), Nate Lashley (-25)
- Number of holes with water hazards: 1
- Green type: poa annua (80%) and bentgrass (20%)
- Green size: 5,150 square feet
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Fairway width: 36 yards
- - Driving accuracy: 67%
- - Driving distance: 297 yards
- - Greens in regulation: 73%
- 2023 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-100 yards: 15%
- - 100-125 yards: 11%
- - 125-150 yards: 14%
- - 150-175 yards: 18%
- - 175-200 yards: 9%
- - 200+ yards: 32%
Event and Course Notes
- This is a driver-heavy course and one of the easiest venues on TOUR
- This is where Bryson DeChambeau broke the Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green / Approach calculations because he kept driving it so close to the greens
- Fairly thick rough (4”), but the fairways are easy to hit given their width
- Greens are very easy to hit on average despite being small
- Greens are contoured, so good approach play is critical
- Average winning score here the last 5 years has been -23
- Water is only in play on one hole, so there are very few penalty strokes
- Pretty simple week — just make birdies
What to Look For
- Birdie or Better %
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Putting (emphasis on bent/poa)
- Strokes Gained on easy par 72s
Core Plays
Taylor Pendrith
DraftKings: $9,600 / pOWN%: 17%
FanDuel: $10,400 / pOWN%: 15%
Total Driving: 20
Strokes Gained Approach: 72
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 44
Strokes Gained Putting: 3
Birdie or Better %: 12
Bogey Avoidance: 46
Pendrith makes all too much sense. If you are playing the bomber angle, he has that box checked. If you are playing the birdie maker angle, he has that box checked. He’s been in solid form for months, he picked up his first career win earlier this year, and he’s put together some solid finishes in much stronger fields. He’s never really been known as an elite putter, but he’s figured something out on the greens. He has gained strokes putting in 14 of his last 15 starts and has gained over 16 strokes putting in his last four events combined. He also covers the course history angle, as he’s finished T14 and T2 here in the last 2 years.
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