PGA DFS Core Plays: Texas Children's Houston Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
Last week was a great example of why nothing is guaranteed in PGA DFS. The forecast called for major winds Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. Despite this (the forecast never changed, by the way), the PM/AM wave actually played a half stroke easier than the AM/PM wave. We know people love to overreact to weather, so the contrarian side of us should have been more interested in the PM/AM golfers for tournaments. The weather angle continues to be a fickle beast. Mistakes were made, but I’m ready to move on to the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Texas Children’s Houston Open
After 4 straight events in Florida, the PGA TOUR is off to Texas for 2 events before the year’s first major (the Masters). Memorial Park Golf Course has hosted the Houston Open in 4 of the last 5 years, so we have plenty of data at our disposal. The course is a par 70 that measures just under 7,500 yards. It has a unique layout for a par 70, as there are five par 3s and three par 5s.
This course has provided a brutal test of golf on the PGA TOUR. In those 4 years, it has ranked as the 12th-, 11th-, 9th-, and 8th-most difficult course. The fairways here are generous (33 yards wide on average), yet they are difficult to hit. Given the length of the course and the small penalty for missing fairways, this has been a bomber’s paradise over the years. The average driving distance here last year was 303 yards, which was one of the highest marks on TOUR.
The greens are large (7,000 square feet) and feature bermudagrass that is overseeded with poa trivialis. The greens are difficult to hit on average, largely because of the long approach shots. In 2024, 38% of approach shots came from 150-200 yards, and 34% came from over 200 yards. With the greens being tough to hit, Strokes Gained Around the Green is an important metric to look at this week.
In addition to bombers, scramblers, and good long iron players, I’m also looking for golfers who play well in Texas. This is the home state for a lot of golfers in the field, and many golfers play their best in the Lone Star State. I’m also looking at golfers who play well on difficult courses and who play well in windy conditions. Based on this week’s forecast, it looks like we will have significant wind on all 4 days of the tournament.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament and course notes for the Texas Children’s Houston Open, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
RotoGrinders has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole!
Tool Highlights
- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DraftKings: $12,700 / pOWN%: 30%
FanDuel: $14,000 / pOWN%: 31%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 1
Strokes Gained Approach: 1
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 2
Strokes Gained Putting: 67
Birdie or Better %: 1
Bogey Avoidance: 1
I think it makes a lot of sense to start lineups with Scheffler or McIlroy this week. I prefer the latter given the fact that this is in his home state and that he’s finished T2, T9, and T2 here in the last 3 years. McIlroy has never played this event and is coming off a huge win at THE PLAYERS. Over the last 12 months, Scheffler is 1st in this field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, and Bogey Avoidance. He’s also 1st in the field in Strokes Gained in Texas, Strokes Gained in Windy Conditions, and Strokes Gained on Difficult Driver-Heavy Courses. He’ll want to put together a strong performance heading into the Masters.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
