PGA DFS Core Plays: The American Express
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
We are back to break down The American Express. Before we do, let’s quickly recap what happened last week. All three of the core plays finished in the top 10, and all five of the conviction plays made the cut and performed well. It was one of my best weeks in PGA DFS in quite some time, and I hope that many of you had some success as well. On the betting front, it was a brutal finish from Byeong-Hun An. He birdied his 72nd hole to get into a playoff and was the clear favorite after the three golfers hit their third shots on the first playoff hole. Unfortunately, Grayson Murray dropped a 40-footer for birdie, and then An missed a 4-footer to force another playoff hole. It was brutal, but we move on.
We now turn our attention to the first pro-am event of the year. The American Express features a 54-hole cut and will be played on three different golf courses — PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Golfers will play one course each of the first three days, and those that make the cut will head back to the Stadium Course for the fourth and final round. As usual, the top 65 golfers and ties will make the cut.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for The American Express
I have the course details listed below, so we will just cover the basics here. The courses share a lot of similarities — they are all par 72s, they all measure less than 7,200 yards, they are all easy compared to the tour average, and they all feature greens with bermudagrass and poa annua overseed. If you consume a lot of golf content, you are going to hear that the Stadium Course is much tougher than the other two, but they are all regularly in the top 10 when it comes to the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR.
The fact that there are three courses mixed with the pro-am ups the variance at this event each year. We often see big-name golfers miss the cut here because of it. As far as the type of golfer that can succeed, there’s not a strong course fit. Golfers need to make a lot of birdies, they need to take advantage of the par 5s, they need to be dialed in with their wedges, and they need to putt well. It doesn’t hurt to have experience in California and experience in pro-ams. These rounds typically take a long time.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for The American Express
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Forecasts
Golf Courses
- Location: La Quinta, California
- PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course (will host 2 rounds)
- Par 72 — 7,187 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (47th), 2022 (37th), 2021 (36th), 2020 (36th), 2019 (40th)
- PGA West Tournament Course (will host 1 round)
- Par 72 — 7,147 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (48th), 2022 (39th), 2021 (36th), 2020 (40th), 2019 (40th)
- La Quinta Country Club (will host 1 round)
- Par 72 — 7,060 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (46th), 2022 (43rd), 2021 (41st), 2020 (49th), 2019 (51st)
- Green type on all courses: bermudagrass with poa overseed
Event Notes
- We have a three-course rotation with a 54-hole cut on tap this week
- Golfers will play each course once on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
- All golfers that make the cut will play the Stadium Course on Sunday
- All three courses are easy par 72s that measure less than 7,200 yards
- The name of the game is having patience (pro-am) and making birdies
What to Look For
- Birdie or Better %
- Strokes gained putting
- Par-5 scoring
- Experience in California
- Experience in pro-am events
Core Plays
J.T. Poston
DraftKings — $9,100 / pOWN: 22.3%
FanDuel — $10,800 / pOWN: 23.0%
SG: OTT — 89
SG: APP — 14
Birdie or Better % — 9
SG: Putting — 14
Stat Rank — 6
Noto Rating — 81.6
The $10,000+ range is a lot stronger than last week, but I’m still not sure it’s a necessity to start lineups with a golfer up there. I could see the winner coming from the mid-range and certainly like the look of builds that start with a player priced around Poston. He’s made big charges up the leaderboard each of the last two Sundays, ultimately posting finishes of T6 and T5. He might have the best short game of any golfer in the field and has been making a ton of birdies over the last 6 months. He’s played this event each of the last 5 years and has two top-7 finishes to show for it. He seems to be trending toward a win.
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