PGA DFS Core Plays: The American Express
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
I’m coming off my best PGA DFS week in quite some time. We tend to remember the bad breaks in DFS more than the good ones, but I will always remember the insane run-out I had on Sunday at the Sony Open. My best lineup was hovering around 10th in the big $20 GPP on DraftKings for most of the back 9. After Stephan Jaeger bogeyed a hole late, I figured I had no chance. In a span of a few minutes, Nick Taylor chipped in for eagle on the 18th while J.J. Spaun bogeyed the 17th and made par on the 18th. Taylor secured a spot in the playoff against Nico Echavarria, while Spaun missed out by 1 shot. Taylor then won the playoff and vaulted my lineup into 4th place for a very sweet profit for yours truly. I hope many of you had a good week as well.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for The American Express
After 2 weeks in Hawaii, the PGA TOUR heads to California for the start of the West Coast swing. We have 156 professionals and 156 amateurs teeing it up this week. The name of the game is making birdies and having patience. Most professionals aren’t used to playing with amateurs and having to deal with 6-hour rounds of golf. While course history hasn’t been all that predictive at this event over the years, having experience in a pro-am should come in handy.
There are three courses in the rotation this week — the Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. Each golfer will play each course before the cut is made, which means the cut won’t take place until after the 3rd round. This somewhat lessens the importance of getting 6-of-6 through the cut in cash games, but you will still need all of your golfers through the cut if you are hoping to ship a tournament.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for The American Express
All three of these courses are Par 72s that measure less than 7,300 yards. While the courses aren’t exactly alike in terms of their layouts and grass type, they are all extremely easy. In fact, all three of these courses are routinely in the top 10 when it comes to the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR. Statistically, La Quinta has played a little easier than the other two, but there’s no real advantage when it comes to which course golfers are going to start on.
The Pete Dye Stadium Course is the host course and will host the final round of the event. It used to have some teeth to it, but that hasn’t been the case over the last few years. We can expect golfers to make a ton of birdies on each of these courses and the winning score to be somewhere in the range of -25 to -30. I’m looking for golfers who make birdies, have an excellent track record in California, and tend to play their best on easy courses (all of these metrics can be found in my model this week).
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The American Express Field Size
- 156 golfers
The American Express Cut Rule
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Tools to Help with The American Express PGA DFS Picks
- PGA weather report from Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth
- Windfinder
- Accuweather
Pete Dye Stadium Course for The American Express
- Location: Palm Springs, California
- Seaside: Par 72 — 7,210 yards
- Course type: Desert, Resort
- Recent winners: Nick Dunlap (-29), Jon Rahm (-27), Hudson Swafford (-23), Si Woo Kim (-23), Andrew Landry (-26)
- Difficulty: 2024 (48th), 2023 (47th), 2022 (37th), 2021 (36th), 2020 (36th)
- Green type: poa overseed
- Green size: 7,000 square feet
- Fairway width: 35 yards
- Missed fairway penalty: average/low
- Holes with water hazards: 8
- 2024 tournament averages:
- - Driving Accuracy: 63% (TOUR average: 59%)
- - Driving Distance: 290 yards (TOUR average: 293)
- - Greens in Regulation: 73% (TOUR average: 66%)
- 2024 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-75 yards: 5%
- - 75-100 yards: 9%
- - 100-125 yards: 12%
- - 125-150 yards: 12%
- - 150-175 yards: 22%
- - 175-200 yards: 12%
- - 200-225 yards: 9%
- - 225+ yards: 19%
Tournament and Course Notes for The American Express
- 3-course rotation on tap this week in California
- This is a pro-am format with 156 golfers and 156 amateurs
- The cut won’t be until after the 3rd round, which somewhat lessens the importance of 6/6 in small-field and cash game contests
- The host course (Pete Dye Stadium Course) will host the final round
- All three courses are easy Par 72s that measure less than 7,300 yards
- La Quinta Country Club is the easiest of the three, but they are all easy
- 3 of the 4 rounds will be played on courses with poa trivialis overseed greens
- The winning score will likely be in the range of -25 to -30
- Name of the game is patience (slow play) and making birdies
What to Look For
- Birdie or Better %
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: California
- Strokes Gained: Easy and Very Easy Courses
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Core Plays
Sungjae Im
DraftKings: $10,300 / pOWN%: 30%
FanDuel: $12,100 / pOWN%: 26%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 12
Strokes Gained Approach: 55
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 5
Strokes Gained Putting: 27
Birdie or Better %: 24
Bogey Avoidance: 43
If Xander Schauffele would have withdrawn before pricing came out, Sungjae Im would likely be closer to $11,000 on DraftKings. He’s the odds-on favorite to win this week, and it’s hard to make a case against him. He’s finished T13 or better in 14 of his last 18 starts, which is extremely impressive. If you look at his event log, he’s been gaining strokes in every part of his game. He clearly loves this event, as he’s finished in the top 30 in each of his last 5 appearances. I’m locking him into my single-entry lineup and will be overweight in my MME pool.
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