PGA DFS Core Plays: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
I wasn’t extremely excited for the team event last week, but I put in the extra effort to make the model work with the unique format. The effort paid dividends, as I had the Ben Griffin / Andrew Novak duo as a core play and an outright bet. It ended up being a great week of DFS and betting, so hopefully we can keep it going.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
We are in a bit of a lull in the PGA TOUR schedule, but we do have some fun events coming up. We have a new Signature Event next week, and the PGA Championship is only 3 weeks away. The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas this week for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. The field lacks depth, but we do have Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth teeing up at TPC Craig Ranch.
This course is a par 71 that measures just over 7,500 yards. It’s been 1 of the 7 easiest courses on TOUR in each of the last 4 years. Every winner here has been at least 23-under par, which gives you an idea of what golfers will need to do to be in contention. This week is all about making birdies and keeping your foot on the gas. I will note that water is in play on 15 of the holes, so avoiding mistakes is almost as important as making birdies.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament and course notes for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
The fairways here are wide and easy to hit. Given that and the overall length of the course, it certainly sets up well for the bombers. The greens here are large in size and easy to hit in regulation. This places less of an emphasis on around-the-green play and more of an emphasis on putting. If you are constantly having to scramble this week, you are already behind the 8-ball.
While the course sets up well for bombers, K.H. Lee has won here twice. For me, this week is more about making birdies than anything. I’ll still be overweight on a lot of the bombers, but I will have some shorter hitters who are elite putters in my player pool as well. Enough about the course, let’s get into the DFS picks and bets for the week.
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Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DraftKings: $13,300 / pOWN%: 41%
FanDuel: $14,000 / pOWN%: 40%
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 1
Driving Distance: 28
Strokes Gained: Approach: 1
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 18
Strokes Gained: Putting: 25
Birdie or Better %: 1
Bogey Avoidance: 1
Scheffler playing in this event is the equivalent of sending a good hitter to the minors for a few days to break out of a slump or bringing a star player off the bench as the 6th man to let him play against the opposing team’s second unit. Scheffler has yet to pick up a win this year. Given how weak this field is, we have to think he’s here to get that first win under his belt. He’s the best tee-to-green golfer in the world and has gained strokes putting in 8 of his last 9 events (4+ strokes in 3 of those outings). He’s the overwhelming favorite and playing in his home state. I only do this a few times a year, but I’m hitting the lock button.
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