PGA DFS Core Plays: The Genesis Invitational
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for The Genesis Invitational. Who should you be building your lineups around? Find out below!
For the second straight week, I had a lackluster main slate and an awesome few days of Showdown contests. While I didn’t have much exposure to Collin Morikawa, it’s nice to see him back in the winner’s circle. He’s not my favorite golfer on TOUR, but it’s good for golf when he’s winning tournaments. If you didn’t catch it, Anthony Kim won on LIV. Yes, the same Anthony Kim who used to dominate on the PGA TOUR 20 years ago. He not only won, but he took down Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau in the process. It’s one of the best sports stories of the year. I’m hoping he can keep it rolling on LIV and maybe even find his way into a major this year.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament and course notes for The Genesis Invitational, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
We go from one iconic course in California last week to another this week for The Genesis Invitational. We have another Signature Event on tap, although this one actually features a cut. Most of the field will make the cut, but it at least gives us some additional sweat in the first two days. There are 72 golfers in the field. The top 50 and ties, plus anyone within 10 shots of the lead, will stick around for the weekend.
Riviera Country Club is a Par 71 that measures 7,383 yards. On a par-adjusted basis, this is one of the longest courses on TOUR. The fairways here are narrow (28 yards wide) and tough to hit, while the greens here are large (7,500 square feet) and tough to hit in regulation. The greens are tough to hit from the rough, so you would think that would place an emphasis on Driving Accuracy. However, Driving Distance has been a better predictor of success at this venue. With golfers hitting driver on over 70% of non-Par 3 tee shots, good total drivers of the ball should find the most success this week.
Iron play is always critical in golf, and this week is no exception. With the greens being tough to hit in regulation, golfers will have their short games tested as well. Putting matters at every event, but I’m focusing more on tee-to-green metrics this week. As for the greens, they feature Poa Annua grass, which is certainly an acquired taste. You are going to see a lot of missed putts within 5 feet, so prepare for the tilt ahead of time. My final note is that course history is more predictive here than on any other course that’s not named Augusta National. Even if you aren’t a course history truther, this is a week to bump up the importance of it in your model.
Top PGA DFS Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel for The Genesis Invitational
Core Plays
Tommy Fleetwood
DraftKings: $10,300 / pOWN%: 18%
FanDuel: $11,400 / pOWN%: 24%
Course History L5 Years: 10, 20
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 23
Strokes Gained: Approach: 7
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 8
Strokes Gained: Putting: 15
I can’t stomach how my small-field tournament lineups look when starting with Scottie Scheffler, so my favorite starting point is Tommy Fleetwood. In his first start in America this year, he finished T4 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. He was positive in all four of the strokes gained categories, which is encouraging given the importance of an all-around game at Riviera Country Club. He’s been in excellent form ever since his win at the TOUR Championship, racking up another win and 3 more top 10 finishes since September. He’s a great course fit this week and has finishes of T10 and T20 in his last 2 appearances here.
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