PGA DFS Core Plays: Mexico Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
I love Torrey Pines. For whatever reason, I always seem to have a good week of DFS when the tournament is played on that beautiful golf course in La Jolla, California. Both of my main lineups had 6-of-6 through the cut and cashed in tournaments, while I had a couple of MME lineups that were hovering around the top 10 in the big $25 tournament on DraftKings. It wasn’t a massive week, but it was certainly a profitable one. I hope many of you had a good week as well.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Mexico Open
After some extremely stacked fields the last few weeks, we have a serious lack of star power for the Mexico Open. No offense to Akshay Bhatia and Rasmus Hojgaard, but they aren’t the favorites in many events on the PGA TOUR. Given how much pOWN% is concentrated at the top and the fact that there are only 10 percentage points separating the top 12 golfers in my model for the week, I plan to be underweight on the $10,000 golfers and overweight on the $9,000 golfers.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the Mexico Open
Now, let’s talk about the course. Vidanta Vallarta is a beautiful par 71 that measures just over 7,400 yards. It’s located in Vallarta, Mexico. We have 3 years of course history to work with at this venue. Despite the event generating weak fields, we’ve had 3 solid winners in Jake Knapp, Tony Finau, and Jon Rahm. We can expect some great scoring conditions with little to no wind in the forecast for the 4 days of play this week. I’m expecting the winning score to be in the -25 range.
This course is long and features extremely wide fairways. It has been a bomber’s paradise in the first 3 editions of this event, and we shouldn’t expect that to change in 2025. Shorter hitters can contend here, but they better be elite long iron players, as over 40% of approach shots will come from at least 200 yards. In general, the easier the scoring conditions, the more important putting becomes. I’m placing a much bigger emphasis on putting instead of around the green play this week.
Let’s dive into the picks and stay hot for this week’s Mexico Open!
Editor’s Note: RotoGrinders has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole!
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Mexico Open Field Size
- 132 golfers
Mexico Open Cut Rule
- Top 65 and ties
Weather Tools to Help with the Mexico Open PGA DFS Picks
- PGA weather report from Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth
- Windfinder
- Accuweather
Vidanta Vallarta Course for the Mexico Open
- Location: Vallarta, Mexico
- Par & Length: par 71, 7,436 yards
- Recent winners: Jake Knapp – 19, Tony Finau -24, Jon Rahm -17
- Green Type: paspalum
- Fairway width: 41 yards
- Missed fairway penalty: average
- 2024 tournament averages:
- - Driving Accuracy: 66% (TOUR average: 59%)
- - Driving Distance: 297 yards (TOUR average: 293)
- - Greens in Regulation: 66% (TOUR average: 66%)
- 2024 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-75 yards: 4%
- - 75-100 yards: 4%
- - 100-125 yards: 4%
- - 125-150 yards: 9%
- - 150-175 yards: 16%
- - 175-200 yards: 20%
- - 200-225 yards: 18%
- - 225+ yards: 25%
Tournament and Course Notes for the Mexico Open
- We have a full field (132 golfers) teeing it up in Mexico this week
- We only have 3 years of course history to work with (2022-2024)
- With no wind in the forecast, the winning score should be around 25-under par
- This week is all about the driver with long holes and wide fairways
- Mid and long iron play is also important, as 79% of approach shots come from 150+ yards
- In general, the easier the course, the more important putting becomes
- The greens should be easy to hit without any wind, which lessens the importance of ATG
- I’m looking for bombers, scorers, and golfers who dominate on easy courses
What to Look For
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Driving Distance
- Birdie or Better %
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Core Plays
Beau Hossler
DraftKings: $9,100 / pOWN%: 10%
FanDuel: $10,600 / pOWN%: 19%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 28
Strokes Gained Approach: 74
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 5
Strokes Gained Putting: 5
Birdie or Better %: 34
Bogey Avoidance: 15
On a per-dollar basis, Hossler is my favorite play of the week. He’s plenty long off the tee and might have the best short game of anyone in the field. He’s top 5 in both Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting. His iron play isn’t as good as the other expensive golfers in the field, but he tends to be better with his long irons than he is with his short irons. He’s been in solid form over the last 6 months and finished T10 here in his only appearance.
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