PGA DFS Core Plays: The Open Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for The Open Championship. Which golfers should you be building your lineups around? Find out below!
This week is bittersweet. While we have one of my favorite events on tap, this is the last big event of the year (unless you call the FedExCup Playoffs big events). We still have plenty of full-field events to look forward to for the rest of the year, but this is the final major. Let’s set those alarm clocks for as early as possible and enjoy every second possible of The Open Championship.
Before we get into the course, there are a few notes to cover. The first is that the cut rule this week is top 70 and ties. This may or may not end up making a difference in how many golfers actually make the cut. The second is that they won’t be going off on split tees, which means there’s a massive gap between the first and last tee times each day (more time for PGA weather edges). And finally, the $5,000 floor is back on DraftKings. While I don’t love that range, it makes everyone in the other ranges feel underpriced.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament notes, recent form, and course notes for The Open Championship, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look.
This will be the 11th Open Championship hosted at Royal Birkdale Golf Club. Many view this as the fairest test of links golf on the Open rota. There are fewer blind shots, and you aren’t as much at the mercy of the golf luck gods as you are at some other courses. Good shots tend to be rewarded here, and bad shots tend to be punished. Golfers will obviously still need some breaks to find themselves in contention on Sunday, but this course should provide us the most deserving winner after 72 holes.
Royal Birkdale is a par 70 that measures 7,223 yards. The length may not seem daunting overall, but there are 2 par 3s over 200 yards, 3 par 4s over 500 yards, and 2 par 5s over 550 yards. Early reports on the ground suggest that the fairways are extremely firm. With no rain in the forecast, we should see drives roll out quite a bit (especially if it’s sunny all week). I was already emphasizing accuracy over distance before this news, so that’s even more the case now.
The course has undergone significant renovations since we last saw it in 2017 when Jordan Spieth won. The course has new tee boxes, rebuilt bunkers, elevated greens, and two redesigned holes (14 and 15). The course is now 70 yards longer in total. While golfers will hit plenty of drivers this week, staying out of trouble is more important than having a slight distance advantage. Many of the fairways are surrounded by towering dunes, which really punish severe misses off the tee.
As is the case with most links courses, avoiding the fairway pot bunkers will be critical off the tee. These are some of the deepest pot bunkers on the Open rota, and they essentially serve as a half or full shot penalty. Golfers won’t be reaching the green on their approach shots from the fairway pot bunkers. The greens here are fairly small (6,000 square feet) and were tough to hit in regulation in 2017. Scrambling was also very difficult and required creativity and the ability to hit different types of shots.
The difficulty of the course hinges on the weather. It’s early in the week, but the current forecast looks more like Myrtle Beach than the United Kingdom. There are not expected to be more than 10 mph winds (including gusts) on any of the 4 days of the tournament. It’s also expected to be warm and fairly sunny. If that forecast holds, this is not going to be a typical links event. The course should play a little easier, and I think it opens the door for all types of golfers to contend.
Let’s dive into the picks and bets!
Top PGA DFS Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel for The Open Championship
Core Plays
Tommy Fleetwood
DraftKings: $10,500 / pOWN%: 20%
FanDuel: $12,100 / pOWN%: 18%
Course History L5 Years: 16, MC, 10, 4, 33
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 21
Strokes Gained: Approach: 46
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 15
Strokes Gained: Putting: 57
Expected Hole Performance: 27
I have nothing against Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy this week, but I don’t think we are giving up much floor/ceiling equity by starting lineups with Fleetwood instead. And in the process, we are saving a bunch of salary. Fleetwood has the hometown narrative this week, as he grew up right around the corner from Royal Birkdale. He’s one of the best links players in the world, and he’s one of the most consistent golfers in the world. He doesn’t have a weakness in his game, which is why he has had so much success at the majors throughout his career. He has 5 straight top-15 finishes worldwide, and he has top-20 finishes in 3 of the last 4 Open Championships.
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