PGA DFS Core Plays: The Open Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
The year’s final major is already upon us. It’s crazy how fast the meat of the PGA TOUR season goes by once we get to THE PLAYERS Championship. While it’s a bittersweet week, it’s one that we should savor since we don’t get another major for 250+ days. This year’s Open Championship will be held at the Old Course at Royal Troon for the first time since 2016. If you were a golf fan or if you played DFS back then, you will surely remember the epic battle between Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson at this venue. They finished at -20 and -17 despite that week playing as the 8th toughest major in the last 10 years. The next closest score was J.B. Holmes at -6.
Royal Troon is a Par 71 that measures 7,385 yards. The course has been lengthened by 200 yards since the last time we’ve seen it, but this is more of a strategic course than a bomber’s course. This is due to the fact that the fairway bunkers are extremely penal (they often force players to chip out sideways) and the fact that if golfers stray too far offline, they will have to deal with high fescue and gorse bushes. Even Bryson DeChambeau said that you can’t overpower this course, and he generally tries to overpower every course. Although, there were rumors today that he was hitting 400+ yard drives on some of the downwind holes. The point is that this is a course where the shorter hitters can compete.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for The Open Championship
Given the fact that this is a classical links course with holes right on the coast, weather is going to play a major factor in scoring. I will be checking the forecast all the way up to lineup lock but will build stacks on both sides of the draw regardless. The weather in this part of the world can change on a dime, so a perceived wind advantage for one wave doesn’t always come to fruition. And more often than not, ownership gravitates to the wave with the perceived weather advantage. It’s still early in the week, but the current forecast calls for 20+ MPH gusts on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. If that holds, we are going to be in for some tough scoring conditions in Scotland.
This is one of those weeks where links experience and Open Championship experience is more important than statistics. With that said, I am looking at total driving, strokes gained approach, and scrambling as my three main statistics to target. Golfers will want to avoid the trouble off the tee, so total driving makes sense this week. The greens at Royal Troon are extremely small (especially on the 8th hole, the “postage stamp”), which places an emphasis on approach play and scrambling. Each of the last five winners of The Open were 7th or better in scrambling for the week. As always, if you have any questions about strategy or individual players, feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the RG Discord.
Editor’s Note: RotoGrinders has partnered with Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole!
Tool Highlights
- Build unlimited custom stat models with official PGA TOUR data.
- Hundreds of filters to find the exact data split you’re looking for.
- Save custom reports and run them again with next week’s field.
- Download anything right to your computer with the click of a button.
- See expert models each week.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for The Open Championship
Field Size:
- 158 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 70 and ties
Weather Forecasts
Old Course at Royal Troon
- Location: Ayrshire, Scotland
- Style: Links
- Par 71 — 7,385 yards
- Recent Open winners: Brian Harman (-13), Cameron Smith (-20), Collin Morikawa (-15), Shane Lowry (-15), Francesco Molinari (-8)
- Green type: bentgrass with fescue
- Holes with water hazards: 0
Event and Course Notes
- This is more of a true links course than what we saw last week
- The weather will dictate the scoring, and we have some wind in the forecast
- Nearly 200 yards have been added to the course since 2016 (epic battle between Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson)
- The 6th hole (Par 5) has been lengthened to 623 yards, the longest hole in Open Championship history
- The 8th hole (Par 3) is the “postage stamp” with one of the smallest greens professionals will ever see
- There are a number of blind tee shots, which could get into the psyche of many golfers
- Driving distance isn’t a prerequisite here; avoiding the fairway bunkers is more important
- Being able to flight the ball is key here, especially in windy conditions
What to Look For
- Links experience
- Strokes gained approach
- Total driving
- Bogey avoidance
- Strokes gained putting
- Strokes gained around the green
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
