PGA DFS Core Plays: The Sentry
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are back!
The grind of the PGA TOUR season typically gets to me once we hit the late summer months, but it’s good to be back. We haven’t had a real PGA TOUR event with a full field and ShotTracker since November. We kick off the new year with The Sentry in beautiful Hawaii. I’m a big fan of the changes to the event, as this is no longer a tournament just for the champions of last year. The PGA TOUR has opened the field up and we have most of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings teeing it up this week. This is still a no-cut event, but there are 59 golfers in the field.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is one of the most unique courses on the PGA TOUR. It’s a Par 73 that measures nearly 7,600 yards, yet it essentially plays as a wedge and putting contest. Due to the elevation changes, the wind direction, and the sloping fairways, we are going to see some of the longest drives hit all season. You would think driving distance would play a big factor on a course of this length, but a lot of the distance off the tee comes after the initial carry number. We will see a lot of the field play from similar spots in the fairway, which negates the distance angle a bit.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for The Sentry
As far as the course, these are some of the widest fairways that golfers will see all year. They are 46 yards wide on average (in the landing zones) and some are up to 60 yards wide. The greens are massive as well, averaging over 8,700 square feet. With large fairways and large greens, golfers have been able to shred this place over the years. In fact, this has played as the easiest course on the PGA TOUR in each of the last three seasons. With moderate wind in the forecast, we can expect the winning score to be around 30-under-par this week.
There’s not a specific type of golfer that I am targeting this week. Driving distance and driving accuracy aren’t all that important and around the green play shouldn’t have a big role in the outcome. Golfers were able to hit 82% of greens in regulation last week. Ultimately, I’m looking for golfers who are good on approach (specifically with wedges) and golfers that can light it up on the greens. Three-putt avoidance isn’t a terrible stat to look at, as these greens are massive. And golfers will need to go low to contend, so looking at birdie or better rate is a sound approach as well.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for The Sentry
Field Size:
- 59 golfers
Cut Rule:
- No cut
Weather Forecasts
- Roth’s Forecast (link coming soon)
- Windfinder
- Accuweather
Golf Courses
- Kapalua – Plantation Course
- Location: Lahaina, Hawaii
- Par 73 — 7,596 yards
- Difficulty: 2023 (49th), 2022 (50th), 2021 (51st), 2020 (20th), 2019 (44th)
- Fairway width in landing areas: 45.6 yards wide on average
- Green size: 8,700 square feet
- Green type: bermudagrass
- Water is in play on 0 holes
Event Notes
- Unique Par 73 layout with four par 5s and three par 3s
- Course doesn’t play nearly as long as the scorecard yardage
- Due to elevation changes and rolling hills, we will see 400+ yard drives
- Extremely wide fairways and extremely large greens
- Easiest course on TOUR each of the last three years
- Golfers hit 82% of greens in regulation last year
- Lot of wedges and uneven lies on approach shots
- Have to putt well on these bermuda greens to contend
What to Look For
- Birdie or Better %
- Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bermuda)
- Strokes Gained Approach (Emphasis on Wedge Play)
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Recent Form
Core Plays
Xander Schauffele
DK: $10,000 — FD: $11,600
Total Driving — 41
SG: APP — 3
Bogey Avoidance — 6
Birdie or Better % — 4
SG: Putting (Bermuda) — 13
Stat Rank — 2
Noto Rating — 91.4
Schauffele may not have the same win equity as Scheffler and Hovland, but he arguably has the highest floor of any golfer in the field. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Masters in 2022 and has finished in the top 35% of fields in 92% of his starts over the last year of play. That’s the best mark of any golfer teeing it up this week in Hawaii. He was forced to withdraw from this event last year but has elite course history including a win (2018) and a 2nd place finish (2019). He doesn’t have a weakness in his game, he’s been in solid form (tied for the lowes 72-hole score at the TOUR Championship), and he’s the king of no-cut events.
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