PGA DFS Core Plays: TOUR Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
We have arrived at the final event of the PGA TOUR season — the TOUR Championship. Only 30 golfers will tee it up this week at East Lake Golf Club, and we have the vaunted starting strokes to deal with. If you aren’t familiar with the format, golfers will start at different strokes depending on their place in the FedExCup Standings. Scottie Scheffler will start at -10, Xander Schauffele at -8, Hideki Matsuyama at -7, and so on until we get to the bottom of the standings. Those golfers will start at even par. I’ve never been a big fan of the format, as there’s no cut and there’s really only a handful of golfers that can actually win the event.
As far as the course goes, East Lake has undergone a restoration since the last time we’ve seen it. The fairways have a new type of zoysiagrass, the greens have a new type of bermudagrass, the fairways and greens were reshaped, bunkers were moved, water is in play on two more holes, and the course was lengthened. The course is now a par 71 that measures just under 7,500 yards. It will be interesting to see if the changes impact how the course plays.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the TOUR Championship
Historically, East Lake has been a solid all-around test of golf. The fairways are narrow and difficult to hit on average. The rough has always been thick, so good total drivers of the ball have had a lot of success here. Iron play is important every week, but especially at this course. The greens haven’t been overly easy to hit in regulation, so it certainly doesn’t hurt to have a tidy short game. Ultimately, I expect the course to play fairly difficult. I’m looking for solid all-around golfers this week.
In terms of DFS strategy, there is going to be a ton of overlap given the fact that there are only 30 golfers to choose from. This is a good week to leave salary on the table, especially in tournaments. It’s the best way to avoid duplicated lineups without having to fade all of the chalk. I’ll also point out that the difference between 8th and 30th in finishing position points is essentially two birdies, which can easily be made up over the course of four rounds. Outside of the top few golfers, I’m not placing an emphasis on the starting strokes.
As always, I will be in the RotoGrinders Discord if anyone has any questions throughout the week.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the TOUR Championship
Field Size:
- 30 golfers
Cut Rule:
- No cut this week
Weather Forecasts
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East Lake Golf Club
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- Par 71 — 7,490 yards
- Recent winners: Viktor Hovland (2023), Rory McIlroy (2022), Jon Rahm (2021), Xander Schauffele (2020), Rory McIlroy (2019)
- Green type: bermudagrass
- Green size: 6,200 square feet
- Missed fairway penalty: medium/high
- Holes with water hazards: 8
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving accuracy: 55% (TOUR average: 58%)
- - Driving distance: 303 yards (TOUR average: 292)
- - Greens in regulation: 68% (TOUR average: 64%)
- 2023 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-75 yards: 2%
- - 75-100 yards: 4%
- - 100-125 yards: 14%
- - 125-150 yards: 20%
- - 150-175 yards: 19%
- - 175-200 yards: 15%
- - 200-225 yards: 16%
- - 225+ yards: 10%
Event and Course Notes
- Final event of the season (not of the year)
- Starting strokes are in play this week, so keep that in mind as you are building lineups
- East Lake underwent a restoration this year
- The fairways and greens were reshaped
- The fairways are a new strain of zoysia
- The greens are a new strain of bermudagrass
- There are new fairway and greenside bunkers
- The course was lengthened to 7,490 yards
- Keep an eye on player interviews this week to see how the course is playing
- Historically, good total drivers and good iron players have had success here
- The more difficult the course, the more important scrambling becomes
- This is a good week to leave a lot of salary on the table in DFS
What to Look For
- Strokes gained approach
- Bogey avoidance
- Total driving
- Strokes gained around the green
- Strokes gained putting on bermudagrass
- Strokes gained on difficult courses
- Strokes gained in strong fields
Core Plays
Xander Schauffele
DraftKings: $11,000 / pOWN%: 32%
FanDuel: $12,800 / pOWN%: 39%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 5
Strokes Gained Approach: 3
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 4
Strokes Gained Putting: 1
Birdie or Better %: 6
Bogey Avoidance: 1
Xander over Scheffler worked wonders last week. I’m employing the same strategy this week. Xander is cheaper, he’s in better form, and he has much better course history. Over the last five years, he has finished T6 or better on the shadow leaderboard (no starting strokes) at this event. He’s the most complete player on the PGA TOUR, and East Lake is a course that challenges all aspects of a golfer’s game. The only negative with Xander is that he’s starting two strokes back of Scheffler. Given the discount in price and potentially in ownership, I much prefer Xander.
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