PGA DFS Core Plays: U.S. Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for the U.S. Open. Whom should you be building your lineups around? Find out below!
It’s hard to believe, but the third major of the year is already here. The RBC Canadian Open was fun, but we are here to talk about the U.S. Open. If you have played PGA DFS before, you know that it’s extremely tough to get all 6 of your golfers through the cut. It might be even tougher this week, as only the top 60 and ties will move on to play the weekend, and we have the maximum number of golfers (156) in the field.
The week is interesting from a DFS perspective, as DraftKings brought back the $5,000 pricing floor. This naturally brings down the pricing of everyone except for a handful of golfers at the very top. Scottie Scheffler is one of the biggest decision points this week, as he’s priced at $14,900 on DraftKings. That would typically be an easy avoid for me in small-field contests, but it’s actually easy to build Scheffler lineups that look good (more on this later).
Editor’s Note: For more tournament notes, recent form, and course notes for the U.S. Open, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look.
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is one of the oldest golf courses (built in 1892) in America. The last time it hosted the U.S. Open was in 2018 when Brooks Koepka won with a score of +1. It’s a course that tests all aspects of a golfer’s game, so any weakness will be exposed. Unlike most U.S. Open venues, all types of golfers can contend here. We should see a nice mix of bombers and tacticians on the leaderboard.
The course is a Par 70 that measures 7,440 yards. While this isn’t the longest U.S. Open venue, it’s certainly lengthy for a Par 70. The course is more generous off the tee than most U.S. Open courses, as every hole except one has fairways that are at least 30 yards wide. This doesn’t mean that you can spray the ball, though, as errant drives will find 5” thick rough and knee-high fescue. I’m playing less into the Driving Distance angle this week. I’m focusing more on Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Total Driving.
The greens at Shinnecock are massive (8,800 square feet on average) and feature a mix of Poa Annua (80%) and Bentgrass (20%). Despite their size, they were tough to hit back in 2018. The field hit 71% of the fairways but only 55% of the greens. The most glaring statistic from that event was the scrambling success rate at only 40%. It’s extremely challenging around the green, so good scramblers should have a big advantage this week.
While the prototypical U.S. Open golfer is firmly in play this week, the shorter hitters have a better chance than they usually do at this event. Hitting fairways is important, scrambling is important, and even the longest hitters are going to have a lot of long iron approach shots into these greens. In 2018, 44% of approach shots at this course came from at least 200 yards, which is nearly twice the TOUR average.
Ideally, I’m looking for solid all-around golfers who have a good track record at the U.S. Open and/or other majors.
I’ll be around all week if anyone has questions about the course, specific players, or general strategy. You can find me on X or in the RG Discord.
Top PGA DFS Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel for the U.S. Open
Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
Noto Rating: 1 / Cash Rating: 1 / GPP Rating: 1
DraftKings: $14,900 / pOWN%: 28%
FanDuel: $13,800 / pOWN%: 23%
U.S. Open History L5 Years: 7, 41, 3, 2
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 8
Strokes Gained: Approach: 2
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 8
Strokes Gained: Putting: 21
I’m building two main lineups this week, and both will feature the best golfer on the planet. I’ve been underweight on Scheffler most of the year. I didn’t love his iron play early in the season, and I rarely feel good about my lineup construction when he eats up so much of the salary cap. However, he’s back to being the best iron player (+18 strokes on approach in the last 4 events), and it’s actually easy to build quality lineups with him as the anchor. Scheffler hasn’t won since The American Express, but it’s not like he’s been in bad form. Since then, he’s had 3 runner-up finishes and 3 more top-4 finishes. He’s the most complete golfer on TOUR, so his game should be a perfect fit for Shinnecock Hills. He’s also looking to become the 7th golfer on the PGA TOUR to win the career grand slam.
Russell Henley
Noto Rating: 3 / Cash Rating: 3 / GPP Rating: 5
DraftKings: $8,000 / pOWN%: 13%
FanDuel: $10,600 / pOWN%: 11%
U.S. Open History L5 Years: 10, 7, 14, MC, 25
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 24
Strokes Gained: Approach: 17
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 28
Strokes Gained: Putting: 40
Henley used to be a golfer who would dominate the weak-field events, but he would rarely flash on the leaderboard at the majors. Over the last few years, he has found a way to contend and even win at some of the championship venues. He was T3 at the Masters earlier this year, he finished top 10 at the U.S. Open and the Open Championship last year, and he won a Signature Event at Bay Hill last year. Without adding much length, he’s found a way to compete at the biggest events. He’s extremely accurate off the tee, he’s an elite iron player (especially with his long irons), and he has one of the best short games on TOUR. He rates out 3rd in my model this week, yet he’s only $8,000 on DraftKings. With Shinnecock Hills being a course where all types of golfers can compete, I like Henley’s chances to contend this week.
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