PGA DFS Core Plays: Valero Texas Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for the Valero Texas Open. Whom should you be building your lineups around? Find out below!
The Masters is only one week away!
The top 50 golfers in the world as of today have qualified for the year’s first major. The only other way into Augusta National is to win this week’s event. There are 132 golfers set to tee it up in San Antonio. Much like last week, we have had several withdrawals after pricing was released. This has shaken up the odds board and has led to much softer pricing. There are only 2 golfers priced above $10,000 on DraftKings.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament notes, recent form, and course notes for the Valero Texas Open, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
TPC San Antonio is a Par 72 that measures 7,438 yards. It has been one of the 18 most difficult golf courses on the PGA TOUR in each of the last 5 years. With heavy wind and rain in the forecast this week, I expect it to play extremely difficult. We could be looking at a winning score in the -11 to -13 range.
The fairways here are narrow (27 yards wide) and tough to hit on average. The rough is thick, and there is a lot of trouble if you stray too far offline. Because of that, Total Driving and/or Good Drive % are the best off-the-tee metrics to use this week.
The greens here are average in size (6,400 square feet) and feature bermudagrass overseeded with poa trivialis. They are tough to hit in regulation, which is why iron play and scrambling are such big factors at this event each year.
The final note is that course history has been very predictive at this event over the years. Unlike last week, we can bump up the importance of course history.
Let’s have a great week leading into the Masters!
Top PGA DFS Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel for the Valero Texas Open
Core Plays
Russell Henley
Noto Rating: 1 Cash Rating: 1GPP Rating: 1
DraftKings: $9,800 / pOWN%: 24%
FanDuel: $11,800 / pOWN%: 25%
Course History L5 Years: 4
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 34
Strokes Gained: Approach: 9
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 39
Strokes Gained: Putting: 10
Henley has the trifecta in my model this week — he’s first in overall rating, cash game rating, and GPP rating. Difficult courses that reward accuracy off the tee tend to treat him well. He’s straight off the tee, he’s an elite iron player, he’s a good scrambler, and he’s quietly become an excellent putter. He’s been in good form for what feels like two years, and he finished T4 in his last appearance at this event (2024).
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