PGA DFS Core Plays: Valspar Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
I hope everyone enjoyed THE PLAYERS Championship. I ended up having a good week of DFS thanks to a strong main lineup that got 5 of 6 golfers through the cut and a couple of solid Round 4 Showdown lineups. Other than having to move up Sunday tee times and the coverage, it was a great event for the PGA TOUR. Rory McIlroy picked up his 2nd PLAYERS Championship win and his 3rd win on St. Patrick’s Day, which is a nugget that will be needed for golf trivia at some point in the future.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the Valspar Championship
We now turn our attention to the final leg of the Florida swing. The Valspar Championship is held at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. This is a par 72 that measures 7,352 yards. This is unlike the other Florida courses on the PGA TOUR and almost has more of a Carolinas feel to it. The fairways are tree-lined, there are plenty of doglegs, and there are elevation changes. Water hazards are still lurking though, as water is in play on 9 of the 18 holes.
The fairways at Innisbrook are narrow (26 yards wide) and difficult to hit (53% in 2024). Many of the holes require less than driver, which really negates the importance of driving distance. Given the length of the course and the number of doglegs, there are a lot of mid- and long-iron approach shots here. The greens are small (5,800 square feet) and difficult to hit in regulation (56% in 2024). This makes iron play and around the green play more important.
In terms of difficulty, this has played as one of the 10-toughest courses on the PGA TOUR in 3 of the last 5 years. The winning score has ranged from -8 to -17 during that stretch. The difficulty largely hinges on the weather. Given the high wind gusts expected on Thursday and Friday, scoring conditions should be very difficult. This could be a good week to employ some tee time wave stacks. The AM/PM wave looks to have an edge early in the week (always check the forecast late on Wednesday night).
Editor’s Note: For more tournament and course notes for the Valspar Championship, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
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Core Plays
Tommy Fleetwood
DraftKings: $10,300 / pOWN%: 26%
FanDuel: $11,800 / pOWN%: 31%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 17
Strokes Gained Approach: 11
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 11
Strokes Gained Putting: 29
Birdie or Better %: 118
Bogey Avoidance: 11
I’ve always said that when Fleetwood wins on the PGA TOUR, it will be in a major or in Florida. He’s nearly won here and at PGA National. He tends to play his best on difficult courses and can flight his ball in the wind about as well as anyone. He’s a solid all-around golfer, but his best attributes are his iron play and scrambling. He has yet to finish outside of the top 25 this year (in much stronger fields than this) and has finished T16 and T3 in 2 appearances at this event. He’s 1st in my model this week and not overly expensive.
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