PGA DFS Core Plays: Wells Fargo Championship
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building around? Find out below.
Wells Fargo Championship
Even though the bets were a whiff for what feels like the fifth straight event, it was a solid week of DFS at the Mexico Open. The three core plays last week were Tony Finau (win), Jon Rahm (second), and Stephan Jaeger (T18). I could have done without the late Wednesday night scare from Michael Kim, but it was a solid week overall. Showdown continues to be my most profitable type of contest, so make sure to check out the showdown article and projections for rounds two through four.
While last week felt very straightforward with two clear favorites in the field, this week is wide open. Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler have decided to skip this designated event, but pretty much everyone else is in the field. And honestly, it’s nice of those two to let someone else win for a change. There are 156 golfers set to tee it up at Quail Hollow Club in North Carolina. This is a Par 71 that measures over 7,500 yards and is routinely one of the favorite courses of the golfers on the PGA Tour.
Before we get into the course specifics, I wanted to make a quick note about course history. The PGA Championship was held here in 2017 and the Presidents Cup was held here in 2022. Because of that, the Wells Fargo Championship was not held at Quail Hollow in either of those years. Additionally, we didn’t have an event here in 2020 due to COVID. Make sure to avoid using course history from 2017 (unless you are looking at the PGA Championship) and 2022 in your decision-making this week.
As for the course, this is one of the most bomber-friendly venues on tour. This is one of the longest courses that golfers will play all year and the fairways are rather generous at an average of 33.4 yards wide. You would think the thick rough would level the playing field a bit, but these fairways are pretty tough to hit for everyone. When you do miss the fairway, it’s better to be playing your approach shot from the rough when you are closer to the hole. Much like last week, I’m bumping up driving distance in the model.
Long iron play will also be critical this week. You see a lot of wedge shots hit on most courses, but over 70% of approach shots here come from at least 150 yards. Now, this doesn’t mean shorter hitters can’t contend here, but they better be very good with their long irons and they better have a good short game. The greens here are difficult to hit on average and scrambling hasn’t exactly been a piece of cake here over the years.
In terms of difficulty, this has played as one of the 10 toughest courses on tour in each of the last five years it has held an event. All golfers need to do is be long and straight off the tee, be precise with their mid and long irons, be good around the greens, and be able to putt on these bermuda greens. Simple enough, right? If you are looking for comp courses this week, I like Torrey Pines and Riviera. They are similar in length and similar in the skill sets needed to play well there.
Model Video & Download Link for the Mexico Open
Field Size:
- 156 golfers
Cut Rule:
- Top 65 and ties move on after the first two rounds
Weather Forecasts
- Roth’s DFS Forecast (link coming soon)
- Windfinder
- Weather Channel
Golf Course
- Quail Hollow Club
- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
- Designer: George Cobb with Tom Fazio redesign
- Par 71 — 7,538 yards
- Has hosted the PGA Championship and the Presidents Cup
- Difficulty: Top 10 in difficulty each of the last five editions
- Fairway width in landing areas: 33.4 yards
- Greens: Bermudagrass that are 6,600 square feet on average
Course Notes
- Bomber-friendly course — wide fairways and long holes
- 53% of approach shots were hit from at least 175 yards in 2022
- The rough here is thick and fairways aren’t all that easy to hit
- The greens are tough to hit on average, so scrambling for par is important
What to Look For
- Strokes gained off the tee (emphasis on distance)
- Strokes gained approach (emphasis on 175+ yards)
- Bermuda putting
- Bogey avoidance
- Course history here, at Torrey Pines, and at Riviera