PGA DFS Core Plays: WM Phoenix Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges on DraftKings and FanDuel for the WM Phoenix Open. Who should you be building your lineups around? Find out below!
I didn’t have any exposure to Justin Rose at the Farmers Insurance Open, so it wasn’t a good week of DFS for yours truly. However, everything is right in the golf world, as we have one of my favorite events of the year on tap this week — the WM Phoenix Open.
I mentioned this a little last week, but I have put in a ton of hours to overhaul my PGA DFS model. I am now calculating ratings based on raw statistics and strokes gained rather than ranks, which really helps capture the difference in skill sets. Additionally, I changed the way I calculate my strength of field metric, I calculated everything on a per-round basis rather than a per-event basis, and I’ve incorporated more statistics from the DP World Tour.
If you are reading this, you are either a premium member already or you are reading a free preview. For this week only, we are letting everyone download my PGA DFS model for free. You can create your own ratings and upload them directly into LineupHQ, which is something that you won’t find on many (if any) DFS content sites. If you don’t want to trust the projections of others, why not make your own? As always, you can shoot me a message on Twitter or in the RG Discord if you have any questions.
Editor’s Note: For more tournament and course notes for the WM Phoenix Open, check out this week’s PGA DFS First Look. To get access to Noto’s PGA DFS Model Breakdown & Download link, which allows you to create your own projections, click here.
TPC Scottsdale is a Par 71 that measures just under 7,300 yards. This is a desert course, but there are several water hazards in play, especially on the back nine. The fairways here are narrow, but this is one of the most driver-heavy courses on the PGA TOUR. In 2025, golfers hit driver on 90% of non-par 3 tee shots. For reference, the PGA TOUR average is 69%, so that tells you how often golfers are hitting driver here compared to most courses. Focusing on good drivers of the ball is not a bad idea this week.
The greens here are large (7,100 square feet) and fairly easy to hit in regulation. They feature bermudagrass overseeded with poa trivialis if you want to look at putting splits by surface (these numbers can be found in my downloadable model). Approach play is critical here, as these greens are tiered. In order to give yourself birdie looks, you have to hit your approach shots on the correct section of the greens. Scrambling here is fairly straightforward, as the scrambling success rate is slightly higher here than the TOUR average.
There are a lot of risk/reward holes on this golf course. It’s not surprising to see that so many ball strikers have played well here over the years. This is a good week to lean into course history, as TPC Scottsdale has the 5th-most predictive course history of any course on TOUR. Additionally, this is an atmosphere unlike any other on the PGA TOUR, so golfers who have experienced the bat-shit craziness shouldn’t be overwhelmed like the ones who haven’t.
Top PGA DFS Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel for the WM Phoenix Open
Core Plays
Ben Griffin
DraftKings: $9,500 / pOWN%: 18%
FanDuel: $10,900 / pOWN%: 21%
Course History L5 Years: 36, 28
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 49
Strokes Gained: Approach: 19
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 21
Strokes Gained: Putting: 15
I never have an issue starting with Scottie Scheffler, but he does handicap your lineups a bit this week. I’ll still have plenty of Scheffler in MME, but I am rolling out a balanced lineup in small-field and single-entry tournaments. Griffin is 2nd in my model this week and 2nd in this field in strokes gained per round over the last 8 months. He’s added distance off the tee and has become one of the most complete golfers on TOUR. He has 3 wins in the last year, and he has back-to-back top 25s to open his 2026 campaign. He’s 2-for-2 at this event with both finishes in the top 40. On a per-dollar basis, I think he has the highest floor of any golfer in the field.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
