PGA DFS Core Plays: WM Phoenix Open
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various price ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
It wasn’t a great week for yours truly at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. All the golfers in my main lineup ended up finishing between T13 and T33, but that wasn’t enough to carry my lineup across the cash line. I didn’t have much cooking in MME, so it was a disappointing week. However, seeing Rory McIlroy back in the winner’s circle was great. Some of the lines he took off the tee were incredible. My only complaint with the event was the lack of a cut, but hey, I’ll give the TOUR credit for giving us shot tracker on both courses.
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the WM Phoenix Open
We now turn our attention to one of my favorite events of the year—the WM Phoenix Open. This is the event where the fans and golfers let loose a little. In some cases, fans let loose a little too much. This isn’t a Signature Event, yet it still draws one of the strongest fields. TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 that measures 7,261 yards. This course features a great mix of risk/reward holes, especially on the back nine. This makes for one of the best finishes on the PGA TOUR.
The fairways at TPC Scottsdale are average in width, but the rough is very playable. This is one of the most driver-heavy courses on TOUR, so targeting golfers who can gain strokes off the tee is certainly a good idea. The greens are large in size and fairly easy to hit on average. In 2024, the field hit the greens at a 71% clip, which lessens the importance of strokes gained around the green.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the WM Phoenix Open
Historically, ball strikers have had a ton of success at this event. If you are a member of team no-putt, this is the week for you. Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, and Scottie Scheffler are all poor putters who have excelled at this event over the years. This doesn’t mean a good short game won’t be a positive this week, but I am focusing more attention on ball striking. Next to Augusta National and Riviera Country Club, course history matters here more than any course on the PGA TOUR rotation.
In addition to ball striking and course history, I am leaning heavily on golfers who play well on desert courses and driver-heavy courses.
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Weather Tools to Help with the WM Phoenix Open Open PGA DFS Picks
- PGA weather report from Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth
- Windfinder
- Accuweather
TPC Scottsdale for the WM Phoenix Open
- Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
- Par & Length: Par 71, 7,261 yards
- Course type: Desert
- Recent winners: Nick Taylor -21, Scottie Scheffler -19, Scottie Scheffler -16, Brooks Koepka -19, Webb Simpson -17
- Difficulty: 2024 (25th), 2023 (17th), 2022 (26th), 2021 (42nd), 2020 (18th)
- Green type: poa trivialis, bentgrass, and ryegrass overseed
- Green size: 7,100 square feet
- Fairway width: 33 yards
- Missed fairway penalty: below average
- Holes with water hazards: 6
- 2024 tournament averages:
- - Driving Accuracy: 59% (TOUR average: 59%)
- - Driving Distance: 293 yards (TOUR average: 293)
- - Greens in Regulation: 71% (TOUR average: 66%)
- 2024 approach shot distributions:
- - 50-75 yards: 3%
- - 75-100 yards: 6%
- - 100-125 yards: 8%
- - 125-150 yards: 12%
- - 150-175 yards: 22%
- - 175-200 yards: 21%
- - 200-225 yards: 11%
- - 225+ yards: 7%
Tournament and Course Notes for the WM Phoenix Open
- One of my favorite weeks of the year… the Super Bowl and the WM Phoenix Open
- The event features a strong field, a raucous crowd, and a fun course
- This course has some great risk/reward holes, especially on the back nine
- This is a driver-heavy course, so I want to avoid bad drivers of the ball
- The greens are fairly easy to hit, which lowers the ATG importance
- Historically, this has been a great course for ball strikers (OTT + APP)
- It should play tougher than it did last year (greens won’t be as soft)
- Course history matters more here than any other PGA TOUR stop besides Augusta National Golf Club and Riviera Country Club
What to Look For
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Desert Courses
- Strokes Gained: Putting
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Core Plays
Scottie Scheffler
DraftKings: $12,000 / pOWN%: 36%
FanDuel: $13,400 / pOWN%: 41%
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee: 1
Strokes Gained: Approach: 1
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green: 1
Strokes Gained: Putting: 86
Birdie or Better %: 4
Bogey Avoidance: 1
I was hesitant to target Scheffler in his first start back from injury, but he led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach at Pebble Beach (by 1.6 strokes). When it comes to statistics, it’s hard to make a case against Scheffler. Over the last 12 months, he’s 1st in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. The scary part is that he’s now gaining strokes with the flat stick (he’s been positive putting in 6 of the last 8 events). He’s also great at this event, as he’s won twice and has 2 more top 10 finishes here in the last 4 years. I’m locking Scheffler into my main lineup and going to have 60-70% in my MME builds.