PGA DFS Core Plays: ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Top-ranked DFS player, Notorious, breaks down his favorite PGA DFS picks at various salary ranges for this week’s tournament. Who should you be building lineups around? Find out below!
What a wild week in Las Vegas. While the AM/PM wave had a 3.7-stroke advantage over the PM/AM wave, the chalk absolutely combusted on Saturday morning. The conclusion of Round 2 was pushed into Saturday given the delays we had on Friday. Before golfers teed off on Saturday, the expected 6/6 percentage was around 25% in most contests. After the round concluded, fewer than 5% of lineups got all six of their golfers through the cut. It was the right move to play the weather angle, yet it was still a tough week to get 6/6.
The PGA TOUR now heads to Japan for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. There are far too many randomly capitalized words on the PGA TOUR schedule, but that’s a topic for another day. I will always love this event because Tiger Woods won here in 2019 after bogeying each of his first three holes. In the three events held here since, we’ve had a solid list of winners: Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, and Collin Morikawa. All four winners here are good total drivers, elite iron players, and golfers who can minimize mistakes.
Noto’s PGA Model Download & Video for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that measures 7,079 yards. It’s a unique Par 70 layout in that it features three par fives and zero mid-range par fours. They are all very short or very long. The extra par five also means there are five par threes on the scorecard. We don’t have ShotLink data to work with, but we do have some statistics to work with — in 2023, the field hit 48% of fairways, the average driving distance was 313 yards, and golfers hit 63% of the greens in regulation.
This is a driver-heavy course where avoiding bogeys is critical. Golfers can do this by hitting greens at a high rate or by displaying an elite short game. The more difficult the course, the more I like to lean on a strong tee to green game. This course has been in the top 15 in difficulty every year, so I don’t mind taking a chance on some bad putters this week. While good course history is certainly a positive, it hasn’t been as predictive as many of the courses on the PGA TOUR.
Even though this is a no-cut event, I am going with a more balanced approach this week. While all golfers are guaranteed to play four rounds, four rounds of bad golf is just as bad as a missed cut. With the tight pricing, I find myself going with a balanced roster construction.
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PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Core Plays for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Field Size:
- 78 golfers
Cut Rule:
- No cut
Weather Forecasts
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ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club
- Location: Chiba, Japan
- Par 70 — 7,079 yards
- Type: Parkland
- Recent winners: Collin Morikawa (-14), Keegan Bradley (-15), Hideki Matsuyama (-15), Tiger Woods (-19)
- Difficulty: 2023 (12th), 2022 (15th), 2021 (11th), 2019 (15th)
- Green type: bentgrass
- Holes with water hazards: 4
- 2023 tournament averages:
- - Driving Accuracy: 48% (TOUR average: 59%)
- - Driving Distance: 313 yards (TOUR average: 293)
- - Greens in Regulation: 63% (TOUR average: 66%)
Event and Course Notes
- While I don’t love no-cut events, we do have a strong field on tap in Japan this week
- This is a difficult Par 70 track but unique in its layout in that there are three par fives
- The fairways (48%) and greens (63%) are both difficult to hit here
- The course has zoysiagrass in the rough and on the fairways
- Zoysiagrass tends to give great lies in the fairways and tricky lies in the rough
- Driver-heavy course, as last year’s average driving distance was 313 yards
- No Shot Tracker this week- at least there hasn’t been in prior years
What to Look For
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Bogey Avoidance
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Emphasis on Bentgrass)
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: No-Cut Events
- Recent Form
Core Plays
Sungjae Im
DraftKings: $9,800 / pOWN%: 20%
FanDuel: $11,800 / pOWN%: 22%
Strokes Gained Off the Tee: 12
Strokes Gained Approach: 38
Strokes Gained Around the Green: 11
Strokes Gained Putting: 16
Birdie or Better %: 11
Bogey Avoidance: 29
I love Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa this week, but I like the way my lineups look more when they start with Sungjae Im. After a disappointing start to the season, he’s been on a tear over the last five months. In his last 14 events worldwide, he has a win (Korean Tour) and 9 other finishes of T12 or better. He’s gained at least 6.2 strokes tee to green in 4 of his last 7 events and has always been one of the best putters on TOUR. He’s played this course three times and has finished T12, T29, and T3. If he can have a comparable finish to Xander and Morikawa, lineups starting with him will have a big edge over the field.
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