Free This Week Only! PGA DFS Expert Survey: The Open Championship
Our panel of experts is here to give you their insights on PGA DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for The Open Championship. They’re ready to answer key questions that will assist you in making those crucial lineup-building decisions. Curious who Noto is predicting as the top three finishers? Or perhaps you’re wondering who stlcardinals84 has as his top overall golfer? Read their thoughts below!
PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for The Open Championship
Who is your favorite golfer to spend up for in cash games?
Notorious: Matthew Fitzpatrick
stlcardinals84: Matthew Fitzpatrick
Jbails26: Matthew Fitzpatrick
hondizzle: Ludvig Aberg
Who is your favorite golfer to spend up for in large-field tournaments?
Notorious: Jon Rahm
stlcardinals84: Tommy Fleetwood
Jbails26: Xander Schauffele
hondizzle: Scottie Scheffler
Who is your favorite salary-relief play for cash games?
Notorious: Si Woo Kim
stlcardinals84: Patrick Cantlay
Jbails26: Tom Kim
hondizzle: Patrick Cantlay
Who is your favorite salary-relief play for large-field tournaments?
Notorious: Alex Fitzpatrick
stlcardinals84: Alex Noren
Jbails26: Patrick Cantlay
hondizzle: Justin Thomas
Which golfer are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?
Notorious: Scottie Scheffler
stlcardinals84: Rory McIlroy
Jbails26: Tyrrell Hatton
hondizzle: Tommy Fleetwood
Which high-priced golfer will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?
Notorious: Xander Schauffele
stlcardinals84: Justin Rose
Jbails26: None – will mix and match
hondizzle: John Rahm
What type of golfers (e.g. bomber, short-game specialist, etc.) are you targeting most?
Notorious: All-Around
stlcardinals84: All-Around
Jbails26: All-Around
hondizzle: All-Around
Which statistic other than Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green are you weighing most?
Notorious: Strokes Gained: Approach
stlcardinals84: Strokes Gained: Approach
Jbails26: Strokes Gained: Approach
hondizzle: Strokes Gained: Approach
Predict the top three finishers.
Notorious: 1. Tyrrell Hatton 2. Tommy Fleetwood 3. Matthew Fitzpatrick
stlcardinals84: 1. Tommy Fleetwood 2. Cameron Young 3. Matthew Fitzpatrick
Jbails26: 1. Matthew Fitzpatrick 2. Tommy Fleetwood 3. Scottie Scheffler
hondizzle: 1. Scottie Scheffler 2. Justin Thomas 3. Ludvig Aberg
Which golfer under $6,000 on DraftKings do you have the most conviction in?
Notorious: Keita Nakajima
stlcardinals84: Stewart Cink
Jbails26: Nick Taylor
hondizzle: Nick Taylor
Who is your favorite golfer (when considering price, key stats, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Tyrrell Hatton – Hatton is my pick to win this week, so he’s obviously my favorite play in DFS, since he’s only $8,900 on DraftKings and $10,500 on FanDuel. Over the last 6 years, nobody has had a better average finish on links courses than Hatton. He’s won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 3 times, which is a feat that no other golfer has accomplished. Despite making a triple bogey on his first hole last week, he battled back and finished T17. He recently won on LIV and also finished T7 at the U.S. Open. His game is in elite form, he’s a perfect fit for Royal Birkdale, and you won’t find another golfer who plays better on links compared to their baseline.
stlcardinals84: Tommy Fleetwood – It’s time for him to win The Open Championship. We know that Fleetwood has had more success winning in Europe throughout his career, and he comes into this final major of the year in great form, with top-15 finishes in each of his last 5 events. He finished T27 at Royal Birkdale in 2017 and has made the cut in 7 Open Championships during his career. He grew up in the area, and this would be a poetic story for the ages if he wins a major at Royal Birkdale. Sign me up given the form, and he will have the crowd behind him with every shot.
Jbails26: Matthew Fitzpatrick – Fitzpatrick’s salary isn’t prohibitive at all, and his lead-in form into this tournament is great. I want golfers who are strong on approach and can handle the tricky around-the-green situations at Open Championships. Fitz checks both of those boxes. Over his last 50 rounds, he leads the field in Data Golf’s True Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach. Unsurprisingly, he’s also 2nd in True Total Strokes Gained.
hondizzle: Scottie Scheffler – Despite his premium salary, Scheffler is still my favorite option. His combination of elite ball striking, consistency from tee to green, and ability to avoid mistakes gives him the highest floor and ceiling in the field. His missed cut at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open could keep his ownership a little lower than we normally see, creating an opportunity to gain leverage on the field. Scheffler is also the defending champion, and while I generally avoid rostering defending champions because of the added expectations, it’s hard to ignore his relentless drive to win and improve. Paying up for Scheffler requires a different roster construction, but there is enough cheap value throughout the middle and lower salary ranges to make a stars-and-scrubs build work. If he returns to his typical form, he is still the most likely golfer in the field to separate himself from everyone else.
Who is your favorite contrarian golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?
Notorious: Patrick Reed – Reed was low-owned last week and finished T13 at the Genesis Scottish Open. I’m a little surprised more people aren’t targeting him this week, as we have him projected for less than 10% ownership on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Reed hasn’t played a ton of golf this year, but he won twice on the DP World Tour and has top-12 finishes at 2 of the 3 majors so far. He’s one of the best grinders in the world. With these greens being tough to hit, a creative short game is required. There are few better around the green than Reed. His ball striking has improved this season, and we should never count him out at the majors. I’m happy to be 2-3x the field at this projected ownership.
stlcardinals84: Robert MacIntyre – As of late Monday afternoon, we are showing single-digit projected ownership on MacIntyre. I’ll gladly take that. While he has a reputation as a bomber, he has plenty of experience in a links environment, being from Scotland, and he has made the cut in each of his previous 6 Open Championship appearances. The statistical profile looks better than you might expect, ranking 9th in this field in approach play and 14th in ball striking over the last 16 rounds. He also led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, gaining over 9 strokes compared to the field average. I absolutely love all of the converging trends with the low projected ownership.
Jbails26: Xander Schauffele – Admittedly, I am a little nervous he’s lost strokes on approach in 4 of his last 6 events. However, as a golfer who has historically performed well at Open Championships (including a win in 2024), my hope is that Xander progresses back to his long-term form. I also think he could go overlooked in this range, with people gravitating toward the other name-brand golfers in this pricing tier. Given the state of his recent form, I don’t mind taking a shot here at a presumed ownership discount compared to past years. While he’s projecting as a respectable value, I don’t think he’s projecting at a level where the sims and optimizers will be jamming him into people’s builds. I’ll continue to monitor his pOWN% leading up to lock to see how the public is leaning.
hondizzle: Patrick Reed – Reed’s ownership should remain modest despite a proven track record in major championships. While he has only 1 top-10 finish in his Open Championship career, his grit, creativity around the greens, and ability to control trajectory make him the type of player who should thrive on a links course. Reed has always excelled when par is a good score, and his short game gives him a chance to save pars that many others can’t. At his price, he offers legitimate top-10 upside without attracting the same level of attention as many golfers in his range. In large-field tournaments, Reed is the type of experienced major performer I’m comfortable being overweight on because his skill set is suited for the unique demands of The Open.
What is your preferred tournament format (e.g. large-field, single-entry) to play on this slate? How do you plan to beat that field of opponents? What tactic or strategy will set you apart?
Notorious: I am going to play small-field and large-field tournaments. My small-field tournament lineup is going to start with Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Tyrrell Hatton. They are all live to win, and you can still build a very solid lineup around them since there are so many strong value plays to choose from. I feel better about fading Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy than I do at most majors. In large-field tournaments, I’m going to try to be as unique as possible. I’m going to leave at least $400 on the table in each lineup and cap my max total projected ownership at 95% in LineupHQ.
stlcardinals84: This is one of my favorite events of the year, and I’ll be going for the big prizes in the large-field tournaments. I will be entering about 25-30 lineups in some of the larger contests. I like getting unique with some of the mid-level plays, with players like Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry, and Robert MacIntyre really grabbing my interest at first glance. The stars-and-scrubs builds are easy to make due to the softer major pricing, but I’ll also opt for plenty of balanced lineups.
Jbails26: I’ll be in various small-field tournaments. I’ll mix and match a good chunk of the top-end names across my lineups, particularly Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matthew Fitzpatrick. For the lineups that don’t start with Scheffler or Rory, I want to mix and match 1-2 of the guys in the tier just below them. After that, there are plenty of cheaper values to round out the rest of my roster. Ideally, I’d have 1-2 contrarian pieces to round out my lineups. In these small-field tournaments, you typically only need to get different in a few roster spots since you’re not fighting as many combinations compared to MME fields.
hondizzle: I will be playing the 150-max contests and plan to be well overweight on Scottie Scheffler. His missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open should keep his ownership from reaching the levels we’ve seen in recent majors, and I’m willing to bet on a bounce back from the best player in the world. Around Scheffler, I’ll keep a relatively tight player pool and look to gain leverage by being overweight on a handful of golfers projecting for lower ownership who fit links golf. I’ll also be comfortable leaving salary on the table in some builds to create more unique lineups. My goal is to combine the highest-ceiling player in the field with differentiated roster construction that can separate from the competition in large-field tournaments.
What’s one rule/setting that you’re going to use in our PGA DFS optimizer (LineupHQ) or PGA DFS sims tool (SimLabs)?
Notorious: LineupHQ > Build Rules > Max total lineup ownership %: 95 > Max salary: $49,600 on DraftKings, $59,600 on FanDuel
stlcardinals84: LineupHQ > Build Rules > Max total lineup ownership %: 80
Jbails26: SimLabs > Number of Lineups: 20 > Contest Field: Small Field > Results Range: High > Player Filters > Boost Players: Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Fitzpatrick > Get Lineups
hondizzle: LineupHQ > Player Pool > Mn% > Scottie Scheffler (35%), Xander Schauffele (20%), Justin Thomas (20%)
How does links golf impact how you’re making your player pool?
Notorious: I incorporated both Open Championship and Total Links Strokes Gained metrics in my model this week, so I’m going to let the numbers do the talking for me. There are a surprising number of PGA TOUR regulars who do not play their best on links courses, yet there are a handful that actually play well in this part of the world. I will note that the current forecast does not look very links-like. We typically have cold, windy, and rainy conditions at The Open Championship. The current forecast calls for warm weather and no wind above 10 mph all 4 days of the event. If that holds, I think non-links specialists will be more live than usual.
stlcardinals84: There is definitely some merit to past links success, especially with how firm and fast Royal Birkdale is expected to play. I will definitely give an edge to golfers who have played well on links courses in the past, and it will be a critical tiebreaking scenario for me as well.
Jbails26: Overall, I’ll be weighing this at least a little bit. I don’t think I would 100% write off a solid golfer from my player pool who may have struggled on links courses in the past, but it will be worth weighing it to some extent, especially if I need a tiebreaker on some 1v1s and 2v2s. Links-specific play can be a bit harder to totally quantify as well, but one thing that can help at least get an idea is looking at past Open Championship history.
hondizzle: Links golf places a premium on creativity, patience, and controlling ball flight, so those are the traits I’m prioritizing when building my player pool. I like to target golfers who have already proven they can succeed on links courses, but I’m also willing to take chances on players whose skill sets suggest they should thrive, even if they haven’t produced a big Open Championship finish yet. Strong ball striking, the ability to flight the golf ball in the wind, and a reliable short game all become more valuable when conditions get difficult. I view past links success as a tiebreaker rather than a requirement, allowing me to identify golfers who may be overlooked but have the tools to contend.
Links courses tend to be sensitive to wind. How much is the PGA weather factoring into your process?
Notorious: The weather is typically the main story at The Open Championship, but as I noted above, there’s essentially no wind in the forecast. It sounds like the fairways are extremely firm, and they will only get firmer as the week progresses. I typically like to build tee-time stacks at this event, but I’m not going to force it this week unless we see a major change in the forecast.
stlcardinals84: I will always consider a potential advantage due to wind at The Open Championship. Given that the tee times are not in true “waves” and everyone goes off the 1st tee to start each round, there are more pockets of potential edges depending on the weather forecast. I will certainly stack some golfers with similar tee times if it is warranted, but as of Monday, the forecast looks relatively benign.
Jbails26: I’ll monitor this as much as possible before I make final lineup decisions. If there is no clear weather edge, then it likely just makes the most sense to key in on golfers who tend to play well in the wind. Since I will just be in various small-field tournaments, I likely won’t mess around building wave stacks on both sides of the draw, like you could do if you were messing around with MME. I’d just stick with the one that is showing the best edge.
hondizzle: Weather is always a factor at The Open, but I try not to overreact early in the week. I’ll monitor the forecast leading up to lock, especially if there appears to be a significant wave advantage, but I’m not going to completely rebuild my player pool based on uncertain projections. If the wind forecast becomes more definitive, I’ll be willing to lean into golfers in the favorable wave and adjust my exposures accordingly. Otherwise, I’d rather bet on players with the skill set to handle difficult conditions than try to predict the weather too far in advance.
What is your hot take for this event?
Notorious: Tyrrell Hatton wins his first major championship.
stlcardinals84: Justin Rose misses the cut by 5 strokes.
Jbails26: Si Woo Kim records his first top 10 at an Open Championship.
hondizzle: Two golfers priced under $7,500 on DraftKings finish in the top 10.
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