PGA DFS Expert Survey: Mexico Open

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Our panel of experts is here to give you their PGA DFS picks for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know who Noto has as the top three finishers? Or who is STLCards’ top overall golfer? Find out below!

PGA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey for the Mexico Open

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

Notorious: We’ve only seen this course in action two times, but it has been a bomber’s paradise so far. The fairways are very wide (over 40 yards on average), the rough is playable, and the course features a lot of long holes. Some of the golfers with the best course history here include Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Patrick Rodgers, and Cameron Champ (all bombers). It’s also worth noting that nearly 40% of approach shots have come from over 200 yards, so expect a lot of long irons this week. I’m not looking at around the green much, as the greens are easy to hit and the scrambling success rate has been high here over the last two years. I’m looking for distance off the tee and/or long iron play combined with birdie-making ability. The current forecast calls for less than 10 MPH wind all four days, so we should see some very low scores.

STLCardinals84: Everyone is going to repeat the same narrative this week, that this is a course that favors those who can hit it a long way off the tee. I am going to take the full-on bombers approach this week. It is also a week where you can embrace variance a little bit and target some lower-owned players. This is one of the weakest fields we have seen in quite some time, so don’t be alarmed if we see yet another long-shot winner. Each of the last seven weeks has seen the winner start the week at 60-to-1 odds or worse, and we might see more of the same here.

Jbails26: Looking at Data Golf’s Course Fit Tool, it’s clear that bombers will have an advantage here. Being good with your long irons will be crucial. Last year, roughly 60% of approach shots came from 175+ yards, with more than 44% of those coming beyond 200+ yards. Knowing this, it’s not surprising that the par 4s and par 5s at Vidanta Vallarta combine for the longest average length on TOUR.

hondizzle: From a course fit standpoint it’s pretty obvious that bombers can have an edge this week. Roster construction really stands out to me in a kind of strange way this week. My first instinct is this is a gross week. I really don’t enjoy making rosters. On the assumption that possibly others might feel the same way, I will now approach the week with a bit more enthusiasm to look for edges others might miss. There will be a lot of players that most of us know very little about. This is a great week to dig in more and do some of the work that others might not be willing to do.

Who is your top contrarian golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

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About the Author

Epignosis
Robert Brown (Epignosis)

Robert Brown (aka Epignosis) was having lunch at a sports bar. A football game was on. He remarked to his wife that if he could have a second life, he’d like to be someone who enjoyed watching sports. That enjoyment began when he signed up for a fantasy football league that needed one more player. Since then, he has enjoyed playing NFL, NBA, and (especially) MLB DFS. When not teaching American literature, editing content for RotoGrinders (which he has done since 2019), or making lineups, Epignosis is rocking out or jazzing it up on one of several possible instruments.