PGA DFS Expert Survey: Charles Schwab Challenge

Our panel of experts is here to give you their PGA DFS picks for today’s main slate contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know who Noto has as the top three finishers? Or who is STLCards’ top overall golfer? Find out below!

PGA DFS Picks – DraftKings & FanDuel Expert Survey: Charles Schwab Challenge

Who is your favorite golfer for optimal lineups?

Notorious: Scottie Scheffler
STLCardinals84: Scottie Scheffler
hondizzle: Scottie Scheffler
darddog: Tony Finau

Who is your favorite golfer for large field contests?

Notorious: Jordan Spieth
STLCardinals84: Collin Morikawa
hondizzle: Justin Rose
darddog: Viktor Hovland

Who is your favorite salary relief play in optimal lineups?

Notorious: Andrew Putnam
STLCardinals84: Emiliano Grillo
hondizzle: Emillano Grillo
darddog: Aaron Rai

Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field tournaments?

Notorious: Eric Cole
STLCardinals84: Carson Young
hondizzle: Rory Sabbatini
darddog: Carson Young

Which golfer are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

Notorious: Cameron Davis (I’ll have some, but not 20%)
STLCardinals84: Viktor Hovland
hondizzle: Jordan Spieth
darddog: Scottie Scheffler

Which high-priced golfer will you have little to no exposure to in tournaments?

Notorious: Viktor Hovland
STLCardinals84: Sam Burns
hondizzle: Collin Morikawa
darddog: Max Homa

What type of golfers are you targeting most? (ie: bomber, short game specialist)

Notorious: Wedges + Scrambling
STLCardinals84: Strong Iron Players
hondizzle: Great Iron Players
darddog: Ball Strikers

Which statistic other than Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green are you weighing most?

Notorious: SG: Approach
STLCardinals84: SG: Approach
hondizzle: SG: Approach
darddog: SG: Approach

Predict the top three finishers of the event.

Notorious: 1. Spieth 2. Scheffler 3. Putnam
STLCardinals84: 1. Morikawa 2. Scheffler 3. Finau
hondizzle: 1. Fleetwood 2. Rose 3. Kirk
darddog: 1. Hovland 2. Finau 3. Morikawa

Predict the winning score of the week (e.g., E, -5, -10).

Notorious: -14
STLCardinals84: -16
hondizzle: -13
darddog: -12

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

Notorious: Colonial Country Club is typically one of the top 10 toughest courses on tour thanks to the narrow fairways, small greens, and the need to work the ball with both ways. However, it’s usually very windy in Texas this time of year and the current forecast calls for less than 10 MPH wind all four days of the event. If that holds, we could see a lot better scoring than usual.

STLCardinals84: It is amazing how well this course has withstood the test of time, as golfers of the modern era still aren’t able to overpower the short-ish par 70 layout. We may see better scoring this year if the winds stay as calm as projected, though. One interesting note: No player has won here in a debut appearance since Sergio Garcia in 2001. That’s now a sample size of more than 20 years showing that experience helps at this challenging golf course.

hondizzle: I am from the Fort Worth area and have spent a ton of time at this course and at this tournament. In the age of long golf courses, this land-locked traditional track still holds its own as one of the better courses on the tour. Players love coming to this classic layout. Great iron players thrive at this course as we typically see this being a second shot type of week. Golfers can choose to be aggressive and force a few more drivers off the tee (we saw Rahm do this a few years ago), or they can lay back and take what the course gives them. The thing you must do this week is hit your scoring irons close and, at times, stay a bit more patient.

darddog: We get another Par 70 this week and this one should shouldn’t give these players as many fits as Oak Hill did last week (unfortunately). I wouldn’t say necessarily one type of player does well here, as you have had a variety of different golfers bring home the title. Mostly all the approach shots are between 125-175 yards, so ball striking will definitely be at a premium.

Who is your top contrarian golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: Andrew Putnam – I’m not sure this will hold, but Putnam currently has less than 5% pOWN on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He rates out as the best value play in my model, so the low ownership projection is music to my ears. He had a great track record in Texas and had three top 30 finishes here in the last five years. His form has cooled off since the start of the season, but lately the short game has been letting him down. His irons have actually been dialed in and long-term, he is actually very good on and around the green.

STLCardinals84: Carson Young – He’s going to be more popular in the eyes of sharper DFS players, but casual players aren’t going to roster him. Young absolutely DOMINATED a strong field at the Dallas U.S. Open qualifier on Monday, shooting -16 in two rounds to beat everyone else in the field by at least six shots. He also has top 20 finishes in three of his last five starts, and he’s priced near the minimum everywhere.

hondizzle: Sam Burns – Typically, the defending champion usually gets less interest heading into the week. Burns played a really bad round on Friday on the way to missing the cut at last week’s PGA Championship. When you combine those two facts with what has been a bit of an up-and-down season, I think it’s safe to say that there will be little interest in adding Burns to roster pools. That being said, Burns has been a player who can turn it around in a flash and has the game to compete again at Colonial. Burns also has a decent history of repeating as a champion.

darddog: Viktor Hovland – I expect Scottie is going to be heavy chalk, and if people don’t start their lineups there they will probably skip down to Spieth or Sungjae below 10k. Viktor is probably kicking himself after his double-bogey on 16 basically locked up the PGA Championship for Brooks Koepka. Viktor’s irons were dialed in at Oak Hill, leading the field in SG:Approach for the week. He’s also finished inside T-25 his last two visits to Colonial. I would be shocked to see him over 15% owned. That number doesn’t sound great, but when Scottie is going to be 30%+, it could give you good leverage.

Who is your top overall golfer (when considering price, key stats, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

Notorious: Scottie Scheffler – Eventually, he is going to finish outside of the top 12. However, I see no reason to fade him until he does. He finished runner-up at the PGA Championship last week without making a single putt longer than 15 feet. He led the field tee to green and put up his 14th straight top 12 finish. He’s not a great putter, but he’s easily the best tee to green in the world right now. He’s also from Texas, which never hurts.

STLCardinals84: Collin Morikawa – When you factor in ownership, Morikawa is perhaps my favorite overall play this week. He closed with a solid one-under round on Sunday at the PGA Championship, and a course that emphasizes approach play suits his game perfectly. He has made the cut in all three of his previous trips to Colonial, and that includes a pair of top 15 finishes.

hondizzle: Justin Rose – 2023 has been a fun season to watch in terms of players making a comeback. We just need Rickie Fowler to come through to make the comeback season complete. With one win already this season, Rose comes into this week in really good form. This past Colonial Champion has always played well in this event and should be in a good spot to keep up his excellent play. Rose has always been one of the best iron players in the game. To me, this is due to the fact that Rose can flight his irons when needed and control distances better than most. At Colonial, you have to work the ball from the center of the greens towards pins at times, and Rose has always been good at that skill.

darddog: Tony Finau – Before last week, Tony’s irons were enfuego. The PGA Championship was his first tournament losing strokes on approach all year. I expect a bounce-back performance on a course he has elite course history at. In his last four starts at Colonial, he hasn’t finished outside T-23 and had a 2nd place finish in 2019 followed up by a T-4 result last year. Like Viktor, you can probably get at a pretty steep ownership/price discount to Scottie and I don’t think you’re giving up that much.

What is your hot take of the week?

Notorious: Jordan Spieth beats Scottie Scheffler in a playoff.

STLCardinals84: Collin Morikawa shoots four consecutive rounds of 66 on his way to a three shot win.

hondizzle: Tommy Fleetwood beats Rose in a playoff to claim his first PGA tour win.

darddog: The chalky trio of Scottie Scheffler, Justin Rose and Cam Davis all MC.

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